computer model

Problem3.xlsx

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Data					Range Name	Cells
Our Project Cost ($million)	5.000				CompetitorBids	C8:E8
Our Bid Cost ($million)	0.050				MinimumCompetitorBid	C23
					OurBid	C25
Competitor Bids	Competitor 1	Competitor 2	Competitor 3	Competitor 4	OurBidCost	C5
Bid ($million)	6.083	6.083	6.083	6.083	OurProjectCost	C4
					Profit	C29	Forecast: 0.65		Forecast: 0.66
Distribution	Triangular	Triangular	Triangular	Triangular	WinBid?	C27	Statistic	Forecast values	Statistic	Forecast values
							Trials	1,000	Trials	1,000
Competitor Distribution Parameters (Proportion of Our Project Cost)							Base Case	0.65	Base Case	0.65
Minimum	105%	105%	105%	105%			Mean	0.303	Mean	0.303
Most Likely	120%	120%	120%	120%			Median	0.65	Median	0.65
Maximum	140%	140%	140%	140%			Mode	0.65	Mode	0.65
							Standard Deviation	0.35	Standard Deviation	0.35
Competitor Distribution Parameters ($millions)							Variance	0.123	Variance	0.123
Minimum	5.250	5.250	5.250	5.250			Skewness	-0.02	Skewness	-0.02
Most Likely	6.000	6.000	6.000	6.000			Kurtosis	0.9984	Kurtosis	0.9984
Maximum	7.000	7.000	7.000	7.000			Coeff. of Variation	1.15	Coeff. of Variation	1.15
							Minimum	-0.05	Minimum	-0.05
Minimum Competitor							Maximum	0.65	Maximum	0.65
Bid ($million)	6.083						Mean Std. Error	0.011	Mean Std. Error	0.011
Our Bid ($million)	5.700
Win Bid?	1	(1=yes, 0=no)
Profit ($million)	0.650
A They will win the bid at least 50% of the time.