| For the time series below |
| part a) Develop a linear trend forecast |
| part b) Add a quadratic component to the model in part (a) and develop a new forecast |
| part c) Now assume a seasonal pattern and add the seasonality of the months to the linear trend model in part (a) and develop a new forecast |
| part d) Provide the MSE from the 3 models here | | | | | MSE Model a | | MSE Model b | | MSE Model c |
| part e) Based on your answers to part d, for whichever forecast model you deem to be the best, draw a time series graph of both the original time series and the "best" forecast |
| Year | Month | Time Period | COGS |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 21637 |
| | 2 | 2 | 25506 |
| | 3 | 3 | 26594 |
| | 4 | 4 | 21933 |
| | 5 | 5 | 23117 |
| | 6 | 6 | 26979 |
| | 7 | 7 | 28337 |
| | 8 | 8 | 28926 |
| | 9 | 9 | 25015 |
| | 10 | 10 | 28196 |
| | 11 | 11 | 24170 |
| | 12 | 12 | 25004 |
| 2 | 1 | 13 | 24575 |
| | 2 | 14 | 35848 |
| | 3 | 15 | 35217 |
| | 4 | 16 | 32759 |
| | 5 | 17 | 36542 |
| | 6 | 18 | 36109 |
| | 7 | 19 | 40279 |
| | 8 | 20 | 37816 |
| | 9 | 21 | 36338 |
| | 10 | 22 | 37814 |
| | 11 | 23 | 39359 |
| | 12 | 24 | 34151 |
| 3 | 1 | 25 | 39862 |
| | 2 | 26 | 50664 |
| | 3 | 27 | 48533 |
| | 4 | 28 | 45382 |
| | 5 | 29 | 43981 |
| | 6 | 30 | 41276 |
| | 7 | 31 | 44284 |
| | 8 | 32 | 46920 |
| | 9 | 33 | 47469 |
| | 10 | 34 | 43187 |