HLSS522Wk7

In Lesson 6, the possibility of terrorists using nuclear material to cause devastation either by creating a radiological dispersion device or by attacking a nuclear facility was discussed. However, these scenarios would not involve the use of an actual nuclear weapon that utilizes fission or fusion processes to create a destructive explosion. How would a non-state party with limited resources gain access to a nuclear weapon? Would such an event even be possible?

The possibility of a non-state actor gaining both the expertise and the materials required to produce a sophisticated fusion or fission bomb is very slim. But terrorists may purchase or steal enough fissile material and create a crude nuclear bomb. They could also purchase or steal a ready- made nuclear weapon or take over a nuclear-armed submarine, airplane, or base.

The theft of a nuclear weapon would probably be the least likely possibility. Each nuclear state maintains a stringent security regimen and accounting system to track every device in its stockpile. Multi-layer systems are also in place to prevent unauthorized detonation. Nonetheless, measures should be considered to eliminate any risks, particularly in unstable areas of the world.

Terrorists have a better chance of gaining possession of a nuclear WMD through a long-term, well-orchestrated effort to construct the weapon themselves with weapons-usable material stolen or purchased on the black market. It is far easier to count assembled weapons than to account for nuclear material in bulk form. Furthermore, some weapons- usable nuclear material is protected with a lower level of security than assembled nuclear weapons. If a terrorist group were to manage to obtain enough weapons-usable nuclear material, recruit or develop the technological expertise necessary, and produce the finished weapon in complete secrecy, it would be possible for them to construct their own weapons.

Each of these possibilities has the potential to cause widespread death, suffering, and destruction, no matter what their feasibility is. According to U.S. government analytical tools, if a 15-kiloton bomb such as the one dropped on Hiroshima were to be stolen, smuggled into New York City, and detonated, the heat and blast alone would result in 52,000 deaths. Nearly a quarter of a million people would be exposed to direct radiation, with an estimated 10,000 additional deaths and 44,000 cases of radiation sickness. An additional 1.5 million would be exposed to radioactive fallout over the next few days, and another 200,000 deaths would occur without proper evacuation and sheltering.

Potential Use by Terrorists

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