5 page individual paper
Please look at this:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/ (Links to an external site.)
This is the Johns Hopkins University interactive coronavirus map that is updated by the minute. When you go in click on the blue tab "View the COVID-19 Interactive Map." This will take you into their dashboard. There you can check each country on earth. At this writing the US has surpassed Spain to become third in cumulative confirmed cases. This is certainly an underestimate because of the US's lack of testing for the virus. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and other countries in Asia have had much more rigorous testing in terms of the proportion of their populations. They have also had better success in controlling the viruses communicative spread. This has proven to be the only effective way to slow the spread of the disease. It cannot move by itself. It needs us as a host. If we do not spread it, it will stagnate and die.
Some have argued that China's ability to get control is due to their authoritarian political system. This is false. Stalin and Mao were more authoritarian. And they demanded paths of action that were disasters. Stalin for instance stupidly believed that agriculture should be organized according to Marxist ideological principles. A result was corn planted where it was too cold, wheat where it was too wet, collectivized farms poorly managed... The result, more people died in Stalin's purges and man-made famines than in WWII. Authoritarianism is efficient. But depending on what authorities decide to do, if they choose the wrong thing, then they are very efficient at creating disaster. First the current Chinese Communist Party tried to hide the problem. But some Chinese (not all are politically motivated) doctors blew the whistle back in early January. China, luckily, chose to listen to the experts and got control of the virus. Though China's population is three times that of the US, I fear that in the end, the US will have many more fatalities. Let us sincerely hope that is not correct. Now for another example that proves that authoritarianism per se is NOT THE SOLUTION. Taiwan, which has many many extensive linkages with China (shared business partnerships and even family relations) is a very democratic society. They too succeeded in stopping the spread of the disease. In fact they are perhaps the best success we have on Earth. China is authoritarian. Taiwan staunchly democratic with an open society. Both succeeded. Why? If it is not being authoritarian what is it that they (along with Korea and Japan) share? Both are collectivistic cultures and both have very strong respect for intellectuals and have strong technocratic classes of people. Taiwan is full of people who have done postgraduate studies in universities all over the world and returned. The same is true in China. Because of their valuing of science, they have succeeded. And because they are culturally collectivistic they tend to have lots of social support. And they are patient. Confucian cultures take a much longer view of things and so, for example, companies in Japan do not make 5 or 10 year strategic plans. They literally make plans for 100+ years. Sheltering in place for a month is no big sacrifice to them, generally speaking. I have seen no case of young people in Japan, Taiwan or China openly flouting calls to self-quarantine and to follow social distancing guidelines. I have seen cases of young people in England, Germany and the US being very individualistic (one could say selfish). The consequences are beginning to appear. We can literally watch the outcomes as they unfold. We will know within a couple of weeks which way worked best. So it is not authoritarianism that is the secret to success. It is valuing science and expertise, and a willingness to cooperate as a collective as well as having patience. Being able to slow down, to take a month-long hiatus from business and school may prove to be the simple solution, giving science time to generate a vaccine.
The virus can live for a few days on surfaces but after that it is dead. If we can test on a large scale (proportional to our actual population) including those not yet symptomatic that would help stop it in two ways. It cannot spread without using us as its host. Since we "shed" the virus well before having symptoms, "healthy" people who are actually infected are spreading it. This is not the case with most infectious diseases such as influenza. Typically we know we are sick by the time we start to shed the virus. Coronavirus is very dangerous this way. So testing first would tell us who is sick. Until then social distancing is the only alternative. Since it is spread by us, if we knew who was sick we could segregate them from the healthy population thus stopping the spread. This is one of the oldest and best ways to save a herd practiced by farmers for hundreds if not thousands of years. But without testing it has been suggested that we all just presume we are sick and try not to infect others. Then second, after 14 or so days, the sick would either recover or... die and the virus with them. Using this method we could eradicate it within 30 days. It would be wiped out. Dead. But this is so if... and only if... we know who is sick or, being ignorant (self-imposed ignoring of facts) about who is sick, we really followed self-quarantine strictly and universally. Germany, Taiwan and Korea have not only had lots of testing but also they have the most aggressive and rigorous tracing of sick peoples' personal contacts and it has worked very well. To stop community spread you have to do the detective work of tracing all known contacts and quarantining people. It is hard work but it stops the spread. We have not been so precise. Our curves of growing numbers of confirmed cases and deaths are both straight up now.
Okay, so look at the Johns Hopkins interactive map. In the bottom right corner is a graph showing "confirmed" and "daily increase." Once you click on a particular country, I believe to get back to global numbers, you have to go back to the first page and re-enter the dashboard. Next look at Wikipedia. It is being updated by experts. Go to:
Here is a sad but excellent example of international communication of a disease. You will find here timelines by month. Look at those. They are very detailed. This combined with the other source I have suggested, will enable you to see exactly how it spread day-by-day and how the numbers of people worldwide who are infected is increasing exponentially. There are only two ways to stop this. Herd immunity which has two paths. Let everyone get it and without trying to save anyone, let those who will, die. The rest should be immune. But here's the bad part about this solution (other than letting thousands just die), immunity may be shortlived with this virus. The other path is to try to "flatten the curve" so that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed. Flattening the curve does not mean fewer people get it. The areas under the spike curve and the flattened curve are the same. The same number of people will eventually get sick but, with the flattened curve they are spread out so that everyone can get help from doctors. If it spikes, many will die without treatment that might have saved them. In NYC, at this writing (March 25, 2020), hospitals are already creating triage guidelines to refuse resuscitation. Doctors are having to decide who gets a ventilator and who does not. NYC already has closed streets and sit up temporary morgues because the city cannot handle the numbers of bodies, and the bodies remain infectious for a period of time. This is a terrible situation. People who recover do have antibodies. But there is some evidence that they do not last long... not nearly as long as measles antibodies or even the normal strains of flu. This means, if it is not stopped, you may catch it again. The other path is to find a vaccine. Meanwhile the medical field is trying to slow it until we get a vaccine and to limit the fatalities. Problem here is that in places like Italy and Spain, doctors and nurses are making up a disproportional number of the sick and dying because they spend all day with contagious people and end up with it themselves. Shortages of healthcare workers as well as things like ventilators could prove very problematic, to say the least. So look at these sources.
Based on these sources, write a paper about 5 pages long to take the place of your cancelled group grade so that you have another opportunity to raise your grade if you did poorly on the midterm. An A paper will demonstrate an understanding of the material, 5 professional citations and a cogent and intelligent explanation of the spread of the virus from the first timeline in Wikipedia to the last day of your writing (based on the data from Johns Hopkins). Your paper will be due APRIL 15, WEDNESDAY by 11:59 PM. This is exactly the same due date as the original group paper and this one will substitute for that grade which means it will be worth 20 percent of your final grade. Look at these two sources and explain in your paper the path of spread and how fast it spread. We do not know the final answer. But we will as the Johns Hopkins and Wikipedia sources are continually updated. The key to doing a good job is in demonstrating that you can understand and explain the transmission trends -- communication. Five pages. Double space. APA format. 12 point font. One inch margins all around. No title page. No abstract. Just text. The bibliography will be on one additional page. The range of substantive text will be 4.5 to 5.5 pages (5 average). Wikipedia and Johns Hopkins are two sources you can use. Then find three more. If you wish you can also including in your paper trends in your state or country. This will help you fill up your pages. I suggest you look to local government websites, WHO, CDC, US Gov and even military and Pentagon and State Dept. websites. They all have informatoin. For instance the Marine Corps website has lots of information for its members as will as new regulations going into place.