4968 Mathematics
"~'· 314 CHAPTER 15: QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN STRAJ:EbIC PLANNING
quantitative analysis relates quite closely with the: socioeconomic characteristics described earlier. The two most important demographic factors to consider are:
• Total population size: Ht;!althcare resour~~s· are used by virtually everyone, so while the particular type of services used will vary depending on the charac- teristics of the population, all other thi~gs being equal, larger populations will require more healthcare servic~s. ·
• Population by age: Healthcare util1zati6n varies by age, with the younger (less than 5 years old) and older.'( over 65 years old) using more healthcare services; the type of services used will also vary by age. Healthcare planners need an understanding of the age distribution of the population to identify future healthcare needs.
In addition to analyzing past and current demographic data, it is especially impor- tant to develop forecasts of future population levels. Approaches to complete such forecasts are presented in Chapter 6. ·
EXERCISES
. :Using the following data set on hospital admissions, define the service area for Hospital A, based only on quantitative factors (Table 1~-5). Cbropute the target bed capacity of Cheswick Community Hospital 10 years · froriJ.;now, based on the following inf01mation: . ·
Assume current population of Cheswick Community Hospital's service area ~ 145,000 Assume projected population increase of 8% in service area over the next, 10 years ...
;
Table 15-5 Hospitar:Adrnissions, by Community
Community
North
South
East
West
Central
Upper
Lower
Hospital A
45 .·
159
65
145
32
29
37
Hospital B
64
324
.24
68 < · ,, . 56
'l 84 .i., 14
:>
Hospital C Other Hospitals
76 123
12 521
137 311
95 113
78 159
45 814
8 57
:\
.'-,.I
I
:, ·,1 ,' ,I
istics rre:
1e,so tarac- s will
11nger hcare nners entify
mpor- ~such
e area
years
earea
: next
1ls
,-,, C'
Assume a future admission rate per 1000 of 102. Assume average length of stay of 4.7 days in 10 years.
1
~ occupancy rate of78% in 10 Yfars.
~ Newgroveton is a community of 445,000._ In the most recen 750 new cases of disease A in the community. Assume tl dence rate for disease A is 245 per 100,000 people. Was experience better or· worse than expected? Explain your a:
15-4 The population of South Winslet is 358,000. Assume the I cian distribution by specialty in the community (Table 15
Assume that one half of physicians retire at the age of. 65 i retire ~t age 70. How many physicians, by specialty will we must rec Ten years?
Table 15-6 Exercise 15-4
Specialty
General Practice
Pediatrics
General Surgery
08/GYN
Number of Physicians
90
38
41
50
Nu
Assume the following target ratio of physicians per 100,000
Specialty
General Practice
Pediatrics
General Surgery
08/GYN
Target Physician Ratio per 100,
31
18
13
14 \