Extra cridet PS 202
PS 202: Introduction to State and Local Government
Issue 4
Voting
The Rational Voter Model
Voters register and turnout if they believe that the benefits outweigh the
costs
Voting Costs:
Voting Benefits:
Factors of Participation: What determines registration and voter turnout?
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors
Socio-economic Factors
Legal Factors
Systematic Factors
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors:
- Level of government
- Competitiveness
- Connection
- Quality of candidate
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors:
- Level of government
– Turnout and registration are relative to who is on the top of the ticket
and type of election.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors:
- Level of government
– Turnout and registration are relative to who is on the top of the ticket
and type of election. – Presidential General Election: highest;
– State Executive Election government: Second
– Primary Election: third;
– Special election: lowest
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors:
- Level of government
– Turnout and registration are relative to who is on the top of the ticket
and type of election. – Presidential General Election: highest;
– State Executive Election government: Second
– Primary Election: third;
– Special election: lowest
- Competitiveness
- General elections v. primary
- Special election (tax issues)
- More excitement/more publicity
Psychological Factors:
- Connection to the election
• Do you feel your vote counts?
• Are you directly impacted?
• Retail politics?
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors:
- Connection to the election
• Do you feel your vote counts?
• Are you directly impacted?
• Retail politics?
- Quality of candidate
• Are you voting for someone?
• Are you voting against someone?
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Psychological Factors of voting are often driven
by sociological factors Socio-economic Factors
Socio-Economic Factors
Age
Income
Education
Community Integration
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors
1. Age: Older populations vote the most consistently. Why?
• Recognize the benefits of voting, it is a norm to vote and think of
themselves as a voter.
• Have greater interests at stake
• More time to study issues and participate
• Less mobile with young people moving to new residences more
often, where they are much less likely to be registered to vote.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors
1. Age: Older populations vote the most consistently. Why?
• Recognize the benefits of voting, it is a norm to vote and think of themselves as a voter
– Senior citizens are more likely to be longtime residents of their communities, and influenced by friends and neighbors of the same age who are also voting.
• Have greater interests at stake – Major domestic benefit programs, from Medicare to Social Security to
Medicaid, the older people just have a greater interest in voting than younger people who don't see the same benefits.
• More time to study issues and participate
• Less mobile with young people moving to new residences more often, where they are much less likely to be registered to vote.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors 2. Income: Higher income people more likely voters. Why?
Higher income people: • Better connected to donors, community leaders and politicians who encourage them
to vote;
• Have more at stake (taxes, public services) and know they receive greater benefits;
and
• Increased ability to get to the polls.
Lower income people: • Lack time and access to voting resources – less politically educated
• Systematic reasons: Unable to get to the voting polls
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors 2. Income: Higher income people more likely voters. Why?
Higher income people: • Better connected to donors, community leaders and politicians who encourage them
to vote;
• Have more at stake (taxes, public services) and know they receive greater benefits;
and
• Increased ability to get to the polls.
Lower income people: • Lack time and access to voting resources – less politically educated
• Systematic reasons: Unable to get to the voting polls
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Income 2012 Turnout 2008 Turnout 2004 Turnout
< $20,000 53.3% 51.9% 48.3%
$20,000-$29,999 59.1% 56.3% 58.4%
$50,000 -$74,999 74.5% 70.9% 72.2%
$75,000 -$99,999 79.6% 76.4% 77.9%
$100,000 + 83.6% 79.8% 81.3%
Source: www.census,gov “Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000, 2004, 2008”, 2012”
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors 3. Education: More education people more likely voters. Why?
• Know they receive greater benefits from voting;
• Better access to voting resources, information, and where to find information
• Civic education early in life – formal or informal
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors 3. Education: More education people more likely voters. Why?
• Know they receive greater benefits from voting;
• Better access to voting resources, information, and where to find information
• Civic education early in life – formal or informal
Education 2008 Turnout Rate 2004 Turnout Rate
< High School 39.4% 39.5%
High grad/GED 54.9% 56.4%
Some college 68.0% 68.9%
Bachelor’s 77.0% 77.5%
Advanced + 82.7% 84.2% Source: www.census,gov “Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000, 2004, 2008”
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Socio-Economic Factors 3. Education: More education people more likely voters. Why?
• Know they receive greater benefits from voting;
• Better access to voting resources, information, and where to find information
• Civic education early in life – formal or informal
Education 2008 Turnout Rate 2004 Turnout Rate
< High School 39.4% 39.5%
High grad/GED 54.9% 56.4%
Some college 68.0% 68.9%
Bachelor’s 77.0% 77.5%
Advanced + 82.7% 84.2%
4. Community integration • More connected a person is to a community the more they are vote
• School community, Church community, business community, community-
service oriented groups (Scouts);
• Almost all social connections are associated with higher voting participation.
Source: www.census,gov “Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000, 2004, 2008”
Common tie between all major socio-economic
factors in participation is political efficacy.
Political Efficacy:
• The sense that your activities can influence government.
– Higher political efficacy correlates to higher income,
age, education and general level of social integration.
– Why?
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting • Eligibility to vote in the U.S. is determined by both federal and state law.
• U.S. citizens are eligible to vote
• “Right to Vote" is explicitly stated in the Constitution and cannot
be denied or abridged based on sex, race or ethnicity.
• States do have considerable discretion to establish qualifications for
voting and candidacy in their own jurisdiction.
• States may limit voting based on:
• Felony convictions;
• Certain classes of overseas voters; or
• Requiring government issued identification.
• States are responsible for the administration of elections, from
registration, to ballot design, to, handling overseas ballots, to
polling hours and funding of elections.
As a result, voters and potential voters have different experiences going
through the registration and voting process depending on where they live.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting - Federal
Constitutional Amendments:
• 15th Amendment (1870): prohibited any state from denying a
person the right to vote on account of race, color.
• 19th Amendment (1920): Gave women the right to vote.
• 24th Amendment (1964): prohibits conditioning the right to vote
on payment of a poll tax or other types of tax.
– poll tax was part of a series of laws intended to marginalize
black Americans from politics so far as practicable without
violating the 15th Amendment
• 26th Amendment (1970): prohibited states or federal governments
from setting a voting age higher than 18.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting - Federal
Constitutional Amendments:
• 15th Amendment (1870): prohibited any state from denying a
person the right to vote on account of race, color.
• 19th Amendment (1920): Gave women the right to vote.
• 24th Amendment (1964): prohibits conditioning the right to vote
on payment of a poll tax or other types of tax.
– poll tax was part of a series of laws intended to marginalize
black Americans from politics so far as practicable without
violating the 15th Amendment
• 26th Amendment (1970): prohibited states or federal governments
from setting a voting age higher than 18.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting – Federal
5 Federal laws that work to ensure that all Americans are allowed to register to vote & vote.
1. Civil Rights Act of 1964:
– outlawed major forms of discrimination against racial, ethnic, national and
religious minorities and women. It ended unequal application of voter registration
requirements and racial segregation in schools, at the workplace and by facilities
that served the general public ("public accommodations").
Factors of Participation:
When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting – Federal
5 Federal laws that work to ensure that all Americans are allowed to register to vote & vote.
2. Voting Rights Act of 1965
– Prohibits states from imposing any voting qualification or prerequisite to voting, or standard,
practice, or procedure ... to deny or abridge the right of any citizen to vote on account of race,
color, or membership in a language minority group.
• Specifically, intended to outlaw the practice of requiring literacy tests in order to register to vote, a
principal means by which Southern states had prevented African Americans from voting.
– Established extensive federal oversight of elections administration including:
• Required “Preclearance Procedures”: jurisdictions with a history of
discrimination must seek pre-approval of changes in voting rules that could
affect minorities
– Applied to for that states with a history of discriminatory voting practices or that had used a
"device" to limit voting and in which less than 50 percent of the population was registered to vote
in 196 Presidential election. Mostly Southern State.
• Shelby v. Holder (2013) : Overturned formula for determining which states and localities
covered for preclearance – making preclearance inoperable;
• Allowing state legislatures to consider measure that could result in discriminative voting
measures, some of which were previously blocked or deterred by the law.
Factors of Participation:
When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting – Federal
3. National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993 aka "Motor Voter" law, requires all states to offer voter registration and assistance at all offices where people apply for driver's licenses, public benefits or other government services.
• Intended to reduce costs of registration, ensure equal access to the ballot for all eligible citizens, including historically under-represented populations such as low-income citizens or people with disabilities.
• NVRA agencies are required to: • Distribute voter application to clients; • Assist registrants to complete registration, if requested; and • Accept and deliver application to election officials.
• States are prohibited from removing voters from the registration rolls because they have not voted and ensure the timeliness of their voter registration rolls by regularly removing voters who have died or moved.
Factors of Participation:
When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting – Federal 3. National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993 aka "Motor Voter" law, requires all states to offer voter registration and assistance at all offices where people apply for driver's licenses, public benefits or other government services.
• Intended to reduce costs of registration, ensure equal access to the ballot for all eligible citizens, including historically under-represented populations such as low-income citizens or people with disabilities.
• NVRA agencies are required to: • Distribute voter application to clients; • Assist registrants to complete registration, if requested; and • Accept and deliver application to election officials.
• States are prohibited from removing voters from the registration rolls because they have not voted and ensure the timeliness of their voter registration rolls by regularly removing voters who have died or moved.
NVRA Modernization • Compliance with NVRA at public assistance agencies has fallen nationwide as they have failed to
implement the requirements.
• Lack of compliance has not led DOJ to sue a state yet, but in June 2010 the DOJ issued state
implementation guidelines with specific instructions for state public assistance agencies.
• Described how information technologies would make compliance cheaper, easier, and more
efficient.
• States are increasingly modernizing voter registration procedures by replacing paper-based practices
with electronic systems and procedures.
Factors of Participation:
When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting – Federal 4. Help America Vote Act (HAVA) of 2002:
– HAVA requires all states to upgrade voting equipment, make voting more accessible,
provide better voter education, and reduce fraud through the implementation of a
central voter registration system developed and managed by each state’s Chief Election
Official.
– It required replacement of punch card and lever voting systems and access for people
with disabilities and enhanced voter outreach.
Example of block grant to states – Federal Government could not force states to modernization
elections systems, but could incentivize them with money
Factors of Participation:
When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Legal Factors of Voting – Federal
5. Uniformed & Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act of 1986 /Military & Overseas
Voter Empowerment (MOVE) Act (2009)
• The MOVE Act is federal legislation to protect the right of service members to vote in
federal elections regardless of where they are stationed.
• Requires Uniformed Services and merchant marines, their family members and
U.S. citizens residing outside the U.S. to register and vote absentee in elections for
federal offices.
• States must make voter registration and absentee ballot applications available
electronically, as well as General Election information.
• States must plan for a 45-day window for the ballot "round-trip.
• Provides a 10-day grace period for ballots to be received after Election Day, so
long as they were postmarked in time; and
• Requires states to provide ballots via the internet or over fax.
Factors of Participation:
When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Systemic Factors
Registration:
• Registration period – varies by state (N. Dakota does not require
registration)
• Same-Day Voter Registration: allow any qualified resident of the state
to go to the polls on election day, register that day, and then vote. (10
states)
– Turnout is 10 percent to 17 percent higher than the national average.
– Benefits people who have difficulty getting to an office to register
because of work or transportation conflicts and those who have
recently moved.
• Online Voter Registration
• Automatic Voter Registration/Affirmative opt out
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Systemic Factors
Methods of Voting:
• Election Day polling places
• Vote-by-Mail (17 allows some form of VBM w/2 using it exclusively)
• Early and Absentee Voting
Early-voting: Early voting allows voters to visit an election official’s office
or, in some states, other satellite voting locations, and cast a vote in person
without offering an excuse for why the voter is unable to vote on election
day.
Absentee voter: allowing any registered voter to request an absentee ballot
without requiring that the voter state a reason for his/her desire to vote
absentee.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Voter I.D. Voter ID is a controversial, high-profile issue in many state
• It refers to laws that require voters to show an identification document at
the polls on Election Day.
• Photo voter ID laws require voters to show an ID that includes a
photograph, such as a driver’s license.
• Non-photo voter ID laws allow voters to present a non-photo-bearing
ID document, such as a utility bill or paycheck..
• non-documentary" ID requirements check other identifying
information provided at the polling place against voter information on
file. Voters may be required to sign an affidavit or poll book, or
provide personal information.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Controversy about requiring voter ID • Supporters of voter ID laws argue that they help prevent fraud and the
perception of fraud. They also point out that voter ID is very popular
with voters.
• Opponents of voter ID laws argue that they disenfranchise eligible
voters and add cost and inefficiency to the voting process.
• Voter ID laws have been challenged under both state and federal
law. Many of the same arguments are raised in both state and
federal cases. Among the most common of these arguments are
that voter ID laws:
1. Impose an undue burden on the right to vote;
2. Constitute a poll tax
3. Constitute an unlawful additional qualification on the right to
vote
Voting in Oregon
Registration
• Must be registered as of the 21st day before an election;
– Same-Day voter registration cannot without constitutional amendment because 20-
day registration deadline was added to state constitution in 1986 after the attempted
election fraud by the followers by the Rajneesh, whose supporters hatched the idea of
busing in homeless people to vote to take over the city council of the rural town of
Antelope.
– Qualified person who is at least 17 years of age to register to vote, you will not
receive a ballot until an election occurs on or after your 18th birthday.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Voting in Oregon
Registration
• Must be registered as of the 21st day before an election;
– Same-Day voter registration cannot without constitutional amendment because 20-
day registration deadline was added to state constitution in 1986 after the attempted
election fraud by the followers by the Rajneesh, whose supporters hatched the idea of
busing in homeless people to vote to take over the city council of the rural town of
Antelope.
– Qualified person who is at least 17 years of age to register to vote, you will not
receive a ballot until an election occurs on or after your 18th birthday.
Method
• Online Voter registration
• Submit form by mail
– New registrant in the state, must provide identifying information. Must
provide a current, valid Oregon Driver and Motor Vehicles Driver License or
identification card or must provide a copy of document that demonstrates
residency.
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Voting in Oregon Vote-By-Mail: Oregon established vote-by-mail in 1998 with Ballot Measure 60.
• Ballots are sent out 3 weeks in advance of election, must be returned by 8P.M. on
election day, post-marks do not count.
• Intended to increase turn out reduce cost by improving direct access to ballot.
Impact of Vote-By-Mail in Oregon:
• Decreases cost of election (cost per ballot and vote)
Cost per vote Cost per ballot Total Voters
General Election 1998 $1.81 $3.07 1,965,778 General Election 2010 $1.67 $2.34 2,063,588 General Election 2012 $1.88 $2.28 2,200,189
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Voting in Oregon Vote-By-Mail: Oregon established vote-by-mail in 1998 with Ballot Measure 60.
• Ballots are sent out 3 weeks in advance of election, must be returned by 8P.M. on
election day, post-marks do not count.
• Intended to increase turn out reduce cost by improving direct access to ballot.
Impact of Vote-By-Mail in Oregon:
• Decreases cost of election (cost per ballot and vote)
Cost per vote Cost per ballot
General Election November 1998 $1.81 $3.07
General Election November 2010 $1.67 $2.34
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Impact of Vote-By-Mail in Oregon:
Changed campaign methods
• Reviewing ballot return history
• Most voters’ mail back their ballots, with about 20 percent
returning them in person, but depends on election and
undecided voters
• Campaigns conserve resources until ballots are in hand, parties
and campaign focus on GOTV in the 3 weeks before election.
• Concerns about fraud or election mischief have not meted out.
• Poll tax? “Ballot Parties?”
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Impact of Vote-By-Mail in Oregon:
Changed campaign methods
• Reviewing ballot return history
• Most voters’ mail back their ballots, with about 20 percent
returning them in person, but depends on election and
undecided voters
EX: 2010 Governor’s Election, huge election day returns
• Campaigns conserve resources until ballots are in hand, parties
and campaign focus on GOTV in the 3 weeks before election.
- Sooner you return your ballot, stop calling, stop mailings
• Concerns about fraud or election mischief have not meted out.
• After tens of millions of ballots cast, the actual incidents in
Oregon — and then, only of individual voter fraud — are 8
• Poll tax? “Ballot Parties?”
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Felons and voting:
In all but two states, voting age citizens convicted of a felony are
barred from voting for at least some period of time.
Maine and Vermont allow prisoners serving sentences to vote.
Laws vary in each state, some restore voting rights automatically,
other states permanently disenfranchise some ex-felons or require
that they petition the governor or a government board to have their
right restored
Oregon allows ex-felons to vote after release from confinement or
completion of parole
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Factors of Participation: When does the benefit outweigh the cost?
Improving participation in Oregon •Improving access to overseas military and overseas voters
• Military and overseas voters can return their ballot via fax or to return a .pdf
scanned copy of their ballot via email to the county elections office.
• “My Vote” to allow any registered Oregon voter to track their ballot from
anywhere in the world. This enables military and overseas voters to track the date
their ballot was mailed; the mailing address; and the date when it was received at
the county elections office.
•Improving Voter Registration • NVRA State Compliance Council
•Improving Access to all Voters: • IPad – IPads were brought to their homes of people with disabilities or nursing
homes by election workers. Allowed to mark ballots on-screen and print them out
on a portable wireless printer. The voters or assistants then either mailed in the
printed ballots or dropped them off at election stations.