for Paula Hog
The Earth and the Greenhouse Effect
The phenomenon on Earth known as “global warming” is thought by many, but not all, to be the result of greenhouse gases added to the Earth’s atmosphere due human activity. A significant number of scientists also believe that global warming has induced changes to the Earth’s climate. Again, not everyone agrees with that assessment.
In the final group activity, your group is being asked to write a 5-7 page paper that summarizes your group’s opinions on global warming.
Global Warming on Earth
There are no correct answers to the questions posed in this assignment. In fact, there may even be disagreements among group members about the proper responses. In this assignment, therefore, we are only interested in intelligent, well-reasoned arguments. All intelligent well-reasoned arguments can earn full credit, no matter what opinions are expressed. If there are disagreements in the group, multiple submissions are acceptable, each of which can earn full credit. However, if there are multiple submissions, group members need to identify with the submission they support.
In what follows, we have included many websites. There are many more websites, articles and books that weigh in on these issues. You are encouraged to use additional reference sources.
The Debate:
As the Phet simulation shows, the Earth’s global surface temperature has risen by about a degree Celsius as the CO2 concentration increases by approximately 33%. There are many questions associated with this observed fact, which as we have seen, the models can predict. Among these: Is human activity responsible for this temperature rise through the emission of
Greenhouse gases or is the temperature rise a natural phenomenon? Without change, will human activity in the 21st century force the Earth’s global temperature even higher? One of the very important questions in this debate concern economics. Do restrictions on Greenhouse gases lead to impacts on the U.S. or World economies that stunt economic growth in ways that lead to negative outcomes for First World or Third World countries?
These are all important questions for which there is considerable disagreement about the answers.
Scott Pruitt, the current Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency said in an interview: "I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there's tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact. So no, I would not agree that [human activity] is a primary contributor to the global warming that we see." Senator James Inhofe, Chair of the Senate Environment Committee, has famously offered his opinion that "manmade global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people."
On the other hand, Keith Seitter, the executive director of the American Meteorological Society wrote in response: “In reality, the world’s seven billion people are causing climate to change and our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the primary cause,” and “is a conclusion based on … multiple independent lines of evidence that have been affirmed by thousands of independent scientists and numerous scientific institutions around the world.”
The EPA has also put out information in support of human causes of global warming. From the EPA’s website: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing- climate/observed-change Go to Fig. 2.3. Interact with the graphic by first clicking on “Observations”, “Natural Factors Only”, and “Natural and Human
Factors”. The click on these headings again, in the same sequence, for the EPA’s explanation of global warming. (Note the temperature scale is °F.)
Clearly there are significant differences of opinion.
The Question:
Almost all people who have looked into the question believe that Global Warming is a fact. Earth-based and satellite-based measurements have clearly convinced most that the Earth’s temperature has been rising.
(Of course, not everyone will even agree that global warming is happening – http://www.breitbart.com/big- government/2015/06/05/hide-the-hiatus-how-the-climate- alarmists-eliminated-the-inconvenient-pause-in-the-global- warming/
But see the rebuttal – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global- warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds
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Global Land–Ocean Temperature Index
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Annual Mean Lowess Smoothing (5-year)
And now Greenhouse gas emissions seem to be on the rise once again
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/13/climate/co2- emissions-rising- again.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=g- artboard%20g-artboard-v3&module=second-column- region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news )
Is human activity responsible for this temperature rise through the emission of Greenhouse gases? Is the temperature rise a natural phenomenon? Is global warming a “hoax”?
There are many sites that take a stand on these issues. A few examples:
1. Human activity is responsible for global warming –
The Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states unequivocally: “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report).
Another recent report that attributes global warming to human activity
https://science2017.globalchange.gov
2. Human activity is not responsible for global warming –
Here is the website for two skeptics, although there are many others.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/my-global-warming-skepticism-for- dummies/
http://climateconference.heartland.org/wp- content/uploads/2017/03/Connolly-Connolly-Connolly-Soon- Climate-infographics-March-2017.pdf
The Assignment:
Each group is to submit a 5-7 page paper.
This paper is to address several questions:
1. Does your group believe human activity is primarily responsible for the Earth’s temperature rise through the emission of Greenhouse gases? Or, on the contrary, does your group believe the temperature rise is a natural phenomenon unrelated to human activity? This matters. After 3 years of very low increases in atmospheric CO2, this greenhouse gas has begun to significantly increase once again.
2. If human activity is responsible for the increase and the increase is driving global warming, what possible interventions are available/possible to halt global warming in the 21st century? Alternatively, if in your opinion human-
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induced global warming a “hoax”, does it matter that the Earth’s temperature is rising? If it does matter, is there anything that can be done to halt the rise in the Earth’s temperature in the 21st century?
3. Discuss your group’s opinions concerning the political aspects swirling around these issues.
Some examples of two contrasting points of view:
a. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health- science/budget-reflects-trumps-vow-to-cut-epa-in- almost-every-form/2017/03/15/0611db20-09a5-11e7- a15f- a58d4a988474_story.html?utm_term=.da0424e0f49e
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/letter-to- humanity-warning-climate-change-global-warming- scientists-union-concerned-a8052481.html
b. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump- paris-climate- agreement.html?action=click&contentCollection=Clim ate&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=Marginalia&pg type=article
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politics/donald-trump- budget-cut-epa/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy- environment/wp/2017/11/08/trumps-top-environmental- pick-says-she-has-many-questions-about-climate- change/?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.5f01d2fc633d
4. Finally, discuss the economic realities associated with mediating global warming. For instance, are restrictions on industry that limit the emission of Greenhouse gases cost- effective? Would these restrictions result in economic harm
to nations that outweigh the benefits? Be sure to cite your references.
Guidelines for the paper:
1. 5-7 pages. An abbreviated 5th page of text (4 ½ pages) will be counted as the paper failing to meet the minimum page requirement.
2. A Title Page must be included with title of the paper and those in the group who have contributed to the paper. The title page does NOT count towards the 5 page minimum.
3. References a. Include a separate page with the references. This page
does NOT count toward the 5 page minimum b. Use numbered references embedded in the text: [1], [2],
[3], … for your citations. c. Books, papers, and websites are acceptable reference
sources. Use common sense before you use other source material. Ask if you are unsure if the source is acceptable.
d. Use quotation marks for material taken from the references. Without quotation marks, your text would be considered plagiarism.
4. Technical details a. Submit paper as a .pdf file b. Font: Times New Roman c. Font size: 12 point type d. Double spaced e. 1 inch margins
Due Date: Wednesday, December 13 at 5pm EST.