Forecasting
I will present a part of big project, the instruction (outline) shown at below in yellow, that explain what I should to speak in my part.
Then I wrote a short draft (green) about what I will speak.
At the last is my professor’s feedback(blue green).
So, please follow my professor’s feedback and suggestions to write a new speak note in your word, pls be interesting. Just need part of assumptions
Introduction:
2. Forecasting – Assumptions, good results (Big Box stores FC of known future)
1. What’s been happening will continue to happen, at least across the FC horizon.
2. All the causes of variation in our sales are imbedded in the data. Those causes, whatever they were, will – by assumption 1 – keep happening.
Good results:
Excel sheet of BigBox stores.
Show Sales. Add Regression line. Add Model. Add Actual Sales. Discuss briefly.
Show Sales. Add Autoregression model. Add Actual Sales. Discuss briefly.
These conditions are common in many businesses (show economagic, retail sales, not seasonally adjusted), so learning this method is probably worthwhile. But…
(Introduce bad results group)
Our draft:
Forecasting – Assumptions, good results (Big Box stores FC of known future)
1. Assumptions:
1. At the first we will introduce ourselves.
2. My partner will go to the website and move the cursor on the screen. What’s been happening will continue to happen, at least across the FC horizon.
http://www.economagic.com/cenret.htm#USRet_NSA
3. All the causes of variation in our sales are imbedded in the data. Those causes, whatever they were, will – by assumption 1 – keep happening.
2. Good results:
1. My partner will use the computer, and click the option box under the “Sales History” form.
2. Then different lines will be showed on the screen, and I will explain them one by one.
3. Finally is a little conclusion and then I will introduce the next group.
Forecasting – We have good news and bad news... We'll tell you the good news. Everyone else will tell you the bad news.
As with every equation, and every model, there are assumptions that are made when the equations are derived. If those assumptions aren't valid, the results from the equation or model can't be trusted. Here are our assumptions. Assumptions, good results (Big Box stores FC of known future)
1. Assumptions:
1. What’s been happening will continue to happen, at least across the FC horizon. (No: At the first we will introduce ourselves.)
2. All the causes of variation in our sales are imbedded in the data. Those causes, whatever they were, will – by assumption 1 – keep happening.
(Click the Excel program "Mgt301-BigBox-KnownFuture" -- it is already open -- and talk about the Sales History graph. Something like, This sales history is what Assumption is talking about -- what's been happening keeps happening. Ad we can find a trend --click regression line -- and we can add seasonal effects -- click Model -- and it looks really good, right? And keep talking like that)
My partner will go to the website and move the cursor on the screen. (More to follow...)
http://www.economagic.com/cenret.htm#USRet_NSA
3.
2. Good results:
1. My partner will use the computer, and click the option box under the “Sales History” form.
2. Then different lines will be showed on the screen, and I will explain them one by one.
3. Finally is a little conclusion and then I will introduce the next group.
Our feedback 2:
Then you’ll say something like, Let’s see how good the model is, OK? It looks really good, doesn’t it? Then you’ll show the actual sales and say something like, well it worked for a while, but the last few months the actual sales did better than we thought. Maybe there’s an improvement we can make. We could forecast all the Januarys together, then all the Februarys, and so on. This is called autoregression and it gives these results.
And so on.
2. Good results:
1. My partner will use the computer, and click the option box under the “Sales History” form.
2. Then different lines will be showed on the screen, and I will explain them one by one.
3. Finally is a little conclusion and then I will introduce the next group.