Policy Analysis

PADM 7213

Final Project

Due Wednesday, December 7 by 11:50 PM

Note: this can be used as an artifact for NASPAA Competency 3: Analyze, synthesize, think creatively, solve problems, and make decisions.

This assignment is designed to demonstrate your ability to:

1) Analyze scholarly research aimed at informing public policy

2) Correctly interpret and synthesize results of complex statistical analysis

3) Think creatively about how changes to research design could impact findings

4) Discuss how research findings inform decision making and problem-solving

Please read the following article:

Houston, D. J., & Richardson Jr, L. E. (2004). Drinking-and-driving in America: A test of behavioral assumptions underlying public policy.  Political research quarterly,  57(1), 53-64.

I. Analyze the Framework

1) What is the main question that the article is attempting to answer? USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1 paragraph please).

2) How do social definitions of behavior such as deviant and “sinful” affect the choice of policy to address those behaviors? USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1 paragraph).

II. Interpretation of Statistical Analysis

The main variables of interest for the authors are two dummy variables:

· Occasional drink-driver: =1 if an occasional drink-driver, 0 otherwise (base case is never drink-driver)

· Frequent drink-driver: =1 if a frequent drink-driver, 0 otherwise (base case is never drink-driver)

Table 1: Please refer to Table 1 for the following questions:

Table 1: BAC Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

6) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient on age. Also report statistical significance.

7) Interpretation of OR for age (percentages, please)

Table 1: Likely to be stopped Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

**Extra Credit!

On page 58, the authors write the following: “Frequent drink-drivers and occasional drink-drivers are about half as likely as non-drink-drivers to think it is “almost certain” or “very likely” they would be stopped.”

Why is this interpretation wrong? (Hint: think about risk ratios versus odds ratios). (A few sentences)

Table 1: Almost certain to receive punishment Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

Table 1: Punishment very severe Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

Table 1 Critical appraisal: Given the results in Table 1, what conclusions do you reach about drink-driving attitudes and behaviors? Think about what each regression is telling you about drink-drivers USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1 paragraph, please)

Table 2: Please refer to Table 2 for the following questions:

Table 2: Police stop more likely than an accident Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

**Extra Credit!

On page 60, the authors write: “The odds ratios indicate that frequent drink-drivers are one and a half times more likely to offer this response than non-drink-drivers.”

Why is this interpretation wrong? (Hint: think about risk ratios versus odds ratios). (A few sentences)

Table 2: Major threat to personal safety Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

**Extra Credit!

On page 60, the authors write, “Both groups of drink-drivers are about half as likely as non drink-drivers to see this behavior as a “major” threat to personal safety.”

Why is this interpretation wrong? (Hint: think about risk ratios versus odds ratios). (A few sentences)

Table 2: Serious threat to safety Model

1) What is the dependent variable in this model? Please tell me what the coding is. i.e. =1 if……., 0 otherwise.

2) Simple interpretation of raw logistic coefficient Occasional drink driver. Also report statistical significance.

3) Interpretation of OR Occasional drink driver (percentages, please)

4) Simple interpretation of raw logistic regression coefficient frequent drink driver Also report statistical significance.

5) Interpretation of OR for frequent drink-driver (percentages, please)

Table 2 Critical appraisal: Given the results in Table 2, what conclusions do you reach about drink-driving attitudes and behaviors? Think about what each regression is telling you. USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1 paragraph, please)

Table 3: Please summarize the policy preferences of occasional and frequent drink-drivers in Table 3. I want you to look at each model and then summarize the patterns of policy preference for drink-drivers versus non drink-drivers for each policy preference. You can refer to the coefficients or not in your summary-it’s up to you. USE YOUR OWN WORDS. (1-2 paragraphs).

III. Overall Paper Assessment

1) In your own words, what are the policy implications of this article? That is, based on the findings, what would you recommend in terms of policy? USE YOUR OWN WORDS (1-2 paragraphs please).

2) Please identify one or more conclusions in the study with which you DISAGREE. Please explain why you disagree with the conclusion and your alternative conclusion. (1-2 paragraphs).

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