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n engl j med 391;2 nejm.org July 11, 2024 109

established in 1812 July 11, 2024 vol. 391 no. 2

From the University of New South Wales, Sydney (V.P.); the Division of Nephrolo- gy, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, and Providence Medi- cal Research Center, Providence Inland Northwest Health, Spokane — both in Washington (K.R.T.); Steno Diabetes Cen- ter Copenhagen, Herlev (P.R.), the De- partment of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (P.R.), and Novo Nordisk, Søborg (F.M.M.B., T.I., H.B.-T., N.L.L.) — all in Denmark; Stan- ford Center for Clinical Research, Depart- ment of Medicine, Stanford School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA (K.W.M.); KfH Kidney Center, Munich, and University Hospital, Friedrich-Alexander University, Erlangen — both in Germany (J.F.E.M.); the Department of Medicine, American Heart Association Comprehensive Hyper- tension Center, University of Chicago Medi- cine, Chicago (G.B.); and AdventHealth Translational Research Institute, Orlando, FL (R.P.). Dr. Perkovic can be contacted at vlado . perkovic@ unsw . edu . au or at the Chancellery, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

*The FLOW Trial Committees and Inves- tigators are listed in the Supplementary Appendix, available at NEJM.org.

This article was published on May 24, 2024, and updated on September 17, 2024, at NEJM.org.

BACKGROUND Patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease are at high risk for kidney failure, cardiovascular events, and death. Whether treatment with semaglutide would mitigate these risks is unknown. METHODS We randomly assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] of 50 to 75 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio [with albu- min measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams] of >300 and <5000 or an eGFR of 25 to <50 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 and a urinary albumin-to-creati- nine ratio of >100 and <5000) to receive subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 1.0 mg weekly or placebo. The primary outcome was major kidney disease events, a compos- ite of the onset of kidney failure (dialysis, transplantation, or an eGFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), at least a 50% reduction in the eGFR from baseline, or death from kidney-related or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified confirmatory secondary out- comes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS Among the 3533 participants who underwent randomization (1767 in the semaglutide group and 1766 in the placebo group), median follow-up was 3.4 years, after early trial cessation was recommended at a prespecified interim analysis. The risk of a primary-outcome event was 24% lower in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (331 vs. 410 first events; hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.88; P = 0.0003). Results were similar for a composite of the kidney-specific com- ponents of the primary outcome (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.94) and for death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.89). The results for all confirmatory secondary outcomes favored semaglutide: the mean annual eGFR slope was less steep (indicating a slower decrease) by 1.16 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 in the semaglutide group (P<0.001), the risk of major cardiovascular events 18% lower (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.029), and the risk of death from any cause 20% lower (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95, P = 0.01). Serious adverse events were reported in a lower percentage of participants in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (49.6% vs. 53.8%). CONCLUSIONS Semaglutide reduced the risk of clinically important kidney outcomes and death from cardiovascular causes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; FLOW ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03819153.)

a bs tr ac t

Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Vlado Perkovic, M.B., B.S., Ph.D., Katherine R. Tuttle, M.D., Peter Rossing, M.D., D.M.Sc., Kenneth W. Mahaffey, M.D., Johannes F.E. Mann, M.D., George Bakris, M.D., Florian M.M. Baeres, M.D.,

Thomas Idorn, M.D., Ph.D., Heidrun Bosch-Traberg, M.D., Nanna Leonora Lausvig, M.Sc., and Richard Pratley, M.D., for the FLOW Trial Committees and Investigators*

CME

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http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT03819153

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T h e n e w e ngl a nd j o u r na l o f m e dic i n e

More than half a billion people globally are affected by chronic kidney disease and are at high risk for kidney

failure, cardiovascular events, and death.1 Type 2 diabetes is the most frequent cause of chronic kidney disease in many countries. Renin–angio- tensin system (RAS) inhibitors,2,3 sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, and finere- none have been shown to protect the kidneys and reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular out- comes4-8 and therefore are guideline-directed med- ical therapies for chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.9,10 Nevertheless, many pa- tients continue to lose kidney function and go on to have kidney failure or to die, most com- monly from cardiovascular events. Thus, the ef- fects of therapies such as glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists are of great interest.11

The FLOW (Evaluate Renal Function with Semaglutide Once Weekly) trial assessed the ef- ficacy and safety of subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 1.0 mg once weekly for the prevention of kidney failure, substantial loss of kidney func- tion, and death from kidney-related or cardiovas- cular causes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease.

Me thods

Trial Design and Oversight

We published the design of this international, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial previously.12 The trial was overseen by an academ- ic-led steering committee (see the Supplementa- ry Appendix, available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org) in partnership with the trial sponsor, Novo Nordisk, which also managed trial operations. The trial steering committee provided overall leadership; oversaw trial design, conduct, and analysis; and was responsible for reporting the results. Analyses were conducted by the spon- sor and were independently verified with the use of the original data by Statogen Consulting. The first author wrote the first draft of the manu- script, and all the authors contributed to subse- quent revisions. Technical editorial assistance was provided by OpenHealth and funded by the sponsor. The authors had access to the full data set, made the decision to submit the manuscript for publication, and vouch for the accuracy and completeness of the data and for the fidelity of the trial to the protocol (available at NEJM.org).

Relevant approval from regulatory authorities and institutional review boards was obtained. Each participant provided written informed consent before undergoing any trial-related procedures.

Participants

Adults with type 2 diabetes (glycated hemoglo- bin level, ≤10%) were eligible for inclusion in the trial if they had high-risk chronic kidney disease and were receiving a stable maximal labeled dose (or the maximal dose without unacceptable side effects) of RAS inhibitors (angiotensin-convert- ing–enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin-receptor blocker). Kidney disease was defined by an esti- mated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 25 to 75 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area (calculated with the serum creatinine level and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI] 2009 formula,13 which were used to calculate all reported eGFR values unless otherwise indicated), with a urinary albu- min-to-creatinine ratio (with albumin measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams) of greater than 300 and less than 5000 if the eGFR was 50 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 or higher or a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of greater than 100 and less than 5000 if the eGFR was 25 to less than 50 ml per minute per 1.73 m2. Patients who were unable to receive RAS inhibition because of side effects were eligible for inclusion. A full list of inclusion and exclusion criteria, including a range of specific kidney dis- ease diagnoses, is provided in the Supplementary Appendix.

Trial Procedures

Eligible participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive semaglutide or matching placebo with the use of a central interactive Web- based response system. The use of SGLT2 inhibi- tors and mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonists (MRAs) was permitted, and randomization was stratified according to SGLT2 inhibitor use at baseline. An 8-week dose-escalation regimen was used, with dose escalation (as long as unac- ceptable side effects did not occur) from 0.25 mg per week for 4 weeks and 0.5 mg per week for another 4 weeks, followed by a maintenance dose of 1.0 mg per week throughout the remain- der of the treatment period. If unacceptable ad- verse effects occurred, dose-escalation intervals could be extended, treatment could be paused,

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Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease

or lower maintenance doses could be used. Labo- ratory-based inclusion criteria were based on local laboratory values recorded within 90 days before the screening visit or central laboratory values recorded at screening or at optional prescreen- ing visits.

Trial Outcomes

The primary outcome was major kidney disease events, a composite of onset of kidney failure (ini- tiation of long-term dialysis, kidney transplanta- tion, or a reduction in the eGFR to <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 sustained for ≥28 days), a sustained (for ≥28 days) 50% or greater reduc- tion in eGFR from baseline, or death from kid- ney-related or cardiovascular causes. Three key confirmatory secondary outcomes were defined and assessed with the use of a formal hierarchi- cal testing strategy: total eGFR slope (i.e., the annual rate of change in eGFR from randomiza- tion to the end of the trial); major cardiovascular events (a composite of nonfatal myocardial in- farction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardio- vascular causes), assessed in a time-to-first-event analysis; and death from any cause. A range of additional supportive secondary, exploratory, and other outcomes were also prespecified and are listed in the Supplementary Appendix.

Safety was assessed by collecting data on all serious adverse events, adverse events leading to discontinuation of semaglutide or placebo, and adverse events of special interest. Primary and sec- ondary outcomes other than eGFR assessments derived from the central laboratory were adjudi- cated in a blinded fashion by an event adjudication committee (see the Supplementary Appendix).

Statistical Analysis

This trial was event driven. We calculated that a minimum of 854 primary-outcome events would provide 90% power to detect a 20% lower relative risk in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group at an overall one-sided significance level of 2.5%. An interim analysis of efficacy was planned for after two thirds of the total planned number of primary-outcome events had occurred.

Efficacy analyses were based on the intention- to-treat principle and included all unique partici- pants who underwent randomization, irrespective of adherence to semaglutide or placebo or chang- es to background medications. Time-to-first-event outcomes were analyzed with a stratified Cox

proportional-hazards model with randomization assignment (semaglutide or placebo) as a fixed factor and stratified according to SGLT2 inhibi- tor use at baseline. P values were obtained from a score test. For the primary outcome, the hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval, and P value were adjusted for the group sequential design with the use of likelihood-ratio ordering. The eGFR slope was analyzed with a linear mixed-effects model with randomization assignment, SGLT2 inhibitor use at baseline, time, and the interac- tion between randomization assignment and time as fixed effects, participant as a random intercept, and time as a random slope. Missing data were not imputed.

If superiority was confirmed for the primary outcome, testing of the confirmatory secondary outcomes was performed in a prespecified hier- archical order to ensure type I error control. To account for the prespecified interim analysis, the nominal significance level for the primary and confirmatory secondary outcomes was calculated with the Lan–DeMets alpha-spending function and the actual observed number of primary-out- come events available for the primary analysis. On the basis of the available number of events, the one-sided nominal significance level for the pri- mary and confirmatory secondary outcomes was updated to 0.0161 (equivalent to a two-sided level of 0.0322, which is used in this report). Details are provided in the Supplementary Appendix.

Continuous supportive secondary outcomes were assessed by analysis of covariance with the use of multiple imputation for missing values under a missing-at-random assumption. Analyses of supportive and exploratory outcomes were not adjusted for multiplicity, and confidence intervals for these outcomes should not be used in place of hypothesis testing. All statistical analyses were performed with SAS software, version 9.4 TS1M5 (SAS Institute).

R esult s

Trial Participants

The trial was conducted at 387 sites in 28 coun- tries (see the Supplementary Appendix), with re- cruitment occurring from June 2019 through May 2021. Among the 5581 screened candidates (Fig. S1 in the Supplementary Appendix), 3533 met the entry criteria and were randomly assigned to the semaglutide group (1767 participants) or the pla-

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Table 1. Characteristics of the Participants at Baseline.*

Characteristic Semaglutide (N = 1767)

Placebo (N = 1766)

Total (N = 3533)

Age — yr 66.6±9.0 66.7±9.0 66.6±9.0

Female sex — no. (%) 519 (29.4) 550 (31.1) 1069 (30.3)

Geographic region — no. (%)

Asia 478 (27.1) 434 (24.6) 912 (25.8)

Europe 472 (26.7) 491 (27.8) 963 (27.3)

North America 423 (23.9) 442 (25.0) 865 (24.5)

Other 394 (22.3) 399 (22.6) 793 (22.4)

Race or ethnic group — no. (%)†

White 1155 (65.4) 1168 (66.1) 2323 (65.8)

Asian 439 (24.8) 407 (23.0) 846 (23.9)

Black 78 (4.4) 82 (4.6) 160 (4.5)

Other 95 (5.4) 109 (6.2) 204 (5.8)

Hispanic or Latinx ethnic group — no. (%)†

Yes 273 (15.4) 283 (16.0) 556 (15.7)

No 1421 (80.4) 1411 (79.9) 2832 (80.2)

Not reported 73 (4.1) 72 (4.1) 145 (4.1)

Glycated hemoglobin level — % 7.8±1.3 7.8±1.3 7.8±1.3

Body-mass index‡ 31.9±6.1 32.0±6.5 32.0±6.3

Body weight — kg 89.5±19.8 89.8±21.2 89.6±20.5

Systolic blood pressure — mm Hg 138.9±16.1 138.4±15.4 138.6±15.8

Diastolic blood pressure — mm Hg 76.8±10.0 76.1±10.0 76.4±10.0

Diabetes duration — no. (%)

<15 yr 774 (43.8) 753 (42.6) 1527 (43.2)

≥15 yr 992 (56.1) 1013 (57.4) 2005 (56.8)

Previous myocardial infarction or stroke — no. (%) 405 (22.9) 403 (22.8) 808 (22.9)

Chronic heart failure — no. (%) 342 (19.4) 336 (19.0) 678 (19.2)

Smoking status — no. (%)§

Current smoker 223 (12.6) 206 (11.7) 429 (12.1)

Previous smoker 661 (37.4) 696 (39.4) 1357 (38.4)

Never smoked 883 (50.0) 864 (48.9) 1747 (49.4)

eGFR — ml/min/1.73 m2¶ 46.9±15.6 47.1±14.7 47.0±15.2

eGFR distribution — no. (%)¶

≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 366 (20.7) 353 (20.0) 719 (20.4)

≥45 to <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 515 (29.1) 540 (30.6) 1055 (29.9)

≥30 to <45 ml/min/1.73 m2 667 (37.7) 691 (39.1) 1358 (38.4)

<30 ml/min/1.73 m2 218 (12.3) 182 (10.3) 400 (11.3)

Median urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio‖ 582.3 557.8 567.6

Category of albuminuria — no. (%)**

A1, normoalbuminuria 52 (2.9) 57 (3.2) 109 (3.1)

A2, microalbuminuria 509 (28.8) 495 (28.0) 1004 (28.4)

A3, macroalbuminuria 1205 (68.2) 1214 (68.7) 2419 (68.5)

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Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease

cebo group (1766 participants) and included in the analyses. Four participants underwent ran- domization more than once, and only the first randomization was included in analyses; one par- ticipant was excluded from the analysis because of a lack of adherence to Good Clinical Practice guidelines at the relevant site.

The baseline characteristics of the participants were well balanced between the groups (Table 1 and Table S1). The mean age was 66.6 years, and 1069 participants (30.3%) were women. The mean eGFR was 47.0 ml per minute per 1.73 m2, and the median urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (with albumin measured in milligrams and cre- atinine measured in grams) was 567.6. According to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Out- comes risk calculators,14 68% of the participants were at very high risk for kidney disease pro- gression, kidney failure, cardiovascular events, or death. The participants in the trial were broadly representative of the relevant population

and consistent with those in previous trials,4,5,8 as described in Table S2.

A prespecified single interim analysis was triggered in October 2023 after approximately 570 primary-outcome events had accrued. An in- dependent data and safety monitoring committee reviewed the data and recommended early com- pletion of the trial for efficacy. This recommen- dation was accepted, participants were recalled for final visits, and the trial was completed with the final participant visit occurring on January 9, 2024. At the time of completion of the trial, the median participant follow-up was 3.4 years (range, 0 to 4.5). The trial was closed early at two sites in Russia that had been sanctioned by the sponsor, and 14 participants at the affected sites ended participation early. In total, 34 par- ticipants withdrew consent, and vital status was able to be confirmed at the end of trial for 3482 participants (98.6%). Semaglutide or placebo was permanently discontinued by 26% of participants

Characteristic Semaglutide (N = 1767)

Placebo (N = 1766)

Total (N = 3533)

Medication use — no. (%)

SGLT2 inhibitor 277 (15.7) 273 (15.5) 550 (15.6)

ACE inhibitor 625 (35.4) 615 (34.8) 1240 (35.1)

ARB 1066 (60.3) 1061 (60.1) 2127 (60.2)

Lipid-lowering drug 1418 (80.2) 1416 (80.2) 2834 (80.2)

Diuretic agent 870 (49.2) 910 (51.5) 1780 (50.4)

Insulin 1083 (61.3) 1085 (61.4) 2168 (61.4)

* Plus–minus values are means ±SD. For all characteristics except the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), baseline was defined as the eligible assessment associated with the randomization visit if it was performed before or at the date of first dose. If the assessment was missing or performed after the date of first dose, the assessment from the screening visit was used. Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding. ACE denotes angiotensin-converting enzyme, ARB angiotensin-receptor blocker, and SGLT2 sodium–glucose cotrans- porter 2.

† Race and ethnic group were reported by the participants. “Other” includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and “not reported.”

‡ The body-mass index is the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters. § Smoking was defined as smoking at least one cigarette or the equivalent daily. ¶ For eGFR, the baseline assessment is defined as the mean of the two assessments from the randomization visit and

the screening visit. If only one of the assessments was available, it was used as the baseline assessment. The mean eGFR and the eGFR categories are based on the serum creatinine level and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2009 equation.

‖ The urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio was calculated with albumin measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams.

** Albuminuria categories are based on the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and the baseline assessment is defined as the mean of the two assessments from the randomization visit. If only one of the assessments was available, it was used as the baseline assessment. Normoalbuminuria is defined by a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of less than 30, microalbuminuria by a ratio of at least 30 and less than 300, and macroalbuminuria by a ratio of 300 or greater.

Table 1. (Continued.)

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6 12 18 24 42 48

Months since Randomization

A First Major Kidney Disease Event

Hazard ratio, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66–0.88) P=0.0003

Placebo Semaglutide

1766 1767

1736 1738

1682 1693

1605 1640

1516 1572

1408 1489

30 25

5 10 15

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 4830 36

1048 1131

660 742

354 392

Pe rc

en ta

ge o

f P ar

tic ip

an ts

100

0 0

Pe rc

en ta

ge o

f P ar

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an ts

100

0 0

Pe rc

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ge o

f P ar

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an ts

100

0 0

No. at Risk

Pe rc

en ta

ge o

f P ar

tic ip

an ts

100

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 48

Months since Randomization

B First Kidney-Specific Component Event

Hazard ratio, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.66–0.94)

Difference in annual slope, 1.16 ml/min/1.73 m2/yr (95% CI, 0.86–1.47)

P<0.001

Placebo Semaglutide

1766 1767

1736 1738

1682 1693

1605 1640

1516 1572

1408 1489

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 4830 36

1048 1131

660 742

354 392

No. at Risk

6 12 18 24 42 48

Months since Randomization

C Death from Cardiovascular Causes

Hazard ratio, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.56–0.89)

1766 1767

1737 1739

1697 1703

1641 1665

1601 1627

1544 1583

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 4830 36

1185 1234

772 838

437 460

e G

FR (m

l/ m

in /1

.7 3

m 2 )

0 0 12 52 104 208

Weeks since Randomization

D Total eGFR Slope

Placebo Semaglutide

1766 1766

1663 1665

1490 1521

1609 1606

1573 1590

1441 1468

1284 1345

876 952

156

609 651

199 218

No. at Risk

6 12 18 24 42 48

Months since Randomization

E First Major Cardiovascular Event

Hazard ratio, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68–0.98) P=0.029

1766 1767

1721 1725

1663 1672

1583 1622

1535 1575

1478 1515

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 4830 36

1133 1176

731 793

418 430

Pe rc

en ta

ge o

f P ar

tic ip

an ts

100

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 48

Months since Randomization

F Death from Any Cause

Hazard ratio, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.67–0.95) P=0.01

Placebo Semaglutide

1766 1767

1737 1739

1697 1703

1641 1665

1601 1627

1544 1583

0 0 6 12 18 24 42 4830 36

1185 1234

772 838

437 460

No. at Risk

Placebo Semaglutide

No. at Risk

Placebo Semaglutide

No. at Risk

Placebo

Semaglutide Placebo

Semaglutide

Placebo

Semaglutide

Placebo

Semaglutide

Placebo

Semaglutide Placebo

Semaglutide

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Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease

during the trial, with adherence to the trial regi- men averaging 89% of the planned time during the trial period.

Primary Outcome

Primary-outcome events occurred less frequently in the semaglutide group than in the placebo

group (331 first events [5.8 per 100 patient-years of follow-up] vs. 410 first events [7.5 per 100 pa- tient-years]), which resulted in a 24% lower rela- tive risk of the primary outcome in the semaglu- tide group (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.88; P = 0.0003) (Fig. 1 and Table 2). The number of persons who would need to be treated over 3 years to prevent one primary-outcome event was 20 (95% CI, 14 to 40). Lower risk with semaglutide was also observed for a composite of the kidney-specific compo- nents of the primary outcome (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.94), as well as for death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.89) (Table 2). Results were consistent across the range of prespecified sensitivity analy- ses (Table S3) and were broadly consistent across prespecified participant subgroups (Fig. 2).

Confirmatory Secondary Outcomes

Benefits were observed for the three confirma- tory secondary outcomes tested in a hierarchical fashion, all of which had two-sided P values be- low the prespecified interim analysis threshold of 0.0322 (Table 2). The mean annual slope of the eGFR was significantly less steep (indicating a slower decrease) in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (−2.19 vs. −3.36 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 per year; between-group dif- ference, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.47; P<0.001) (Fig. 1D).

The risk of major cardiovascular events was 18% lower in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (212 vs. 254 events; hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.029) (Fig. 1E). Effects on the individual components of this com- posite outcome are shown in Table 2; findings for myocardial infarction and death from cardiovascu- lar causes were consistent with those in the pri- mary analysis, but the findings for stroke showed a numerical imbalance in favor of placebo.

The risk of death from any cause was 20% lower in the semaglutide group than in the pla- cebo group (227 vs. 279 events; hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95, P = 0.01) (Fig. 1F). Over 3 years, 45 persons (95% CI, 23 to 623) would need to be treated to prevent one major cardiovascular event, and 39 (95% CI, 21 to 238) would need to be treated to prevent one death from any cause.

Figure 1 (facing page). Primary and Confirmatory Secondary Outcomes.

Shown are cumulative incidence plots of the primary outcome, major kidney disease events (a composite of the onset of kidney failure [dialysis, transplantation, or an estimated glomerular filtration rate {eGFR} of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area], ≥50% reduction in eGFR from baseline, or death from kidney-related or cardiovascular causes) and several confirmatory secondary outcomes: kidney-specific components of the primary outcome (persistent ≥50% reduction in eGFR, persistent eGFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2, initiation of long-term renal- replacement therapy, or death from kidney-related causes), death from cardiovascular causes, total eGFR slope, major cardiovascular events (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), and death from any cause. Cumulative incidence estimates are based on the time from randomization to the first event, with death not included in the outcome modeled as a competing risk with the use of the Aalen–Johansen es- timator. Data from participants without events of in- terest were censored at the end of each participant’s in-trial observation period. Estimates are based on a Cox proportional-hazards model with treatment as a categorical fixed factor and stratified according to so- dium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor use at baseline. The eGFR data are least-squares means from a mixed model for repeated measures with treat- ment as a fixed factor; I bars indicate the standard er- ror. The annual rate of change in eGFR was analyzed with a linear random-effects model with randomiza- tion assignment, SGLT2 inhibitor use at baseline, time (as a continuous variable), and the interaction of ran- domization with time as fixed effects and including the participant effect as a random intercept and time as a random slope. On the basis of the available num- ber of primary-outcome events, the nominal signifi- cance level was updated to 0.0322 with the use of the Lan–DeMets alpha-spending function. Events that are not related to eGFR were confirmed by the event adju- dication committee. The eGFR was calculated with the serum creatinine level and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) 2009 formu- la.13 The P value cutoff for significance was 0.032 in Panels A, D, E, and F. Insets show the same data on an expanded y axis.

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n engl j med 391;2 nejm.org July 11, 2024 117

Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease

Other Efficacy Outcomes

The results for additional efficacy outcomes are shown in Figure S2. At 104 weeks, the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio was reduced by 12% in the placebo group, as compared with 40% in the semaglutide group; the ratio of the value at week 104 to the value at baseline was 32% lower (95% CI, 25 to 38) in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group. Loss of kidney func- tion, as indicated by the cystatin C–based eGFR, was lower by 3.39 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 (95% CI, 2.63 to 4.15) in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group at week 104. A post hoc analysis of the change in creatinine-based eGFR from baseline to week 104 showed an al- most identical difference of 3.30 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 (95% CI, 2.43 to 4.17).

At week 104, the mean reduction in body weight was 4.10 kg greater (95% CI, 3.65 to 4.56) in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group, the mean reduction in the glycated hemo- globin level was 0.81 percentage points greater (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.90), and the mean reduction in systolic blood pressure was 2.23 mm Hg greater (95% CI, 1.13 to 3.33). However, the mean reduc- tion in diastolic blood pressure was 0.78 mm Hg greater (95% CI, 0.16 to 1.41) with placebo than with semaglutide.

Safety Outcomes

Serious adverse events (Table 3 and Tables S4 and S5) were reported in fewer participants in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (877 [49.6%] vs. 950 [53.8%]), primarily because fewer participants in the semaglutide group were reported to have serious infections or infestations (317 [17.9%] vs. 376 [21.3%]) or serious cardio- vascular disorders (273 [15.4%] vs. 319 [18.1%]). Eye disorders reported as serious adverse events were more common among participants who re- ceived semaglutide than among those who re- ceived placebo (53 [3.0%] vs. 30 [1.7%]), whereas the numbers of systematically recorded diabetic retinopathy events were similar in the two groups (504 events among 402 participants [22.8%] in the semaglutide group and 483 events among 398 participants [22.5%] in the placebo group). Adverse events leading to permanent discon- tinuation of semaglutide or placebo were more common in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (233 [13.2%] vs. 211 [11.9%]); this finding was driven mainly by discontinuation O

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n engl j med 391;2 nejm.org July 11, 2024118

T h e n e w e ngl a nd j o u r na l o f m e dic i n e

0.50 1.00 2.00

Placebo BetterSemaglutide Better

Primary analysis, all patients

Sex

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Male

Age

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Duration of diabetes

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≥15 yr

Glycated hemoglobin

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North America

Europe

Asia

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Asian

Black

White

Other

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Yes

Estimated GFR

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≥30 to <45 ml/min/1.73 m2

<30 ml/min/1.73 m2

Urinary albumin‐to‐creatinine ratio

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≥300

Cardiovascular disease

No previous myocardial infarction or stroke

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Yes

Insulin use

Yes

Metformin use

Yes

SGLT2 inhibitor use

Yes

Semaglutide Hazard Ratio (95% CI)PlaceboSubgroup no. of participants with event/no. of participants in analysis

0.25

98/423 102/442 0.98 (0.74–1.30)

98/478 98/434 0.85 (0.65–1.13)

331/1767 410/1766 0.76 (0.66–0.88)

88/519 127/550 0.70 (0.53–0.92)

243/1248 283/1216 0.79 (0.66–0.94)

131/633 175/652 0.71 (0.57–0.90)

160/816 170/773 0.85 (0.69–1.06)

40/318 65/341 0.63 (0.42–0.93)

142/734 164/733 0.82 (0.65–1.03)

189/1031 244/1029 0.73 (0.61–0.89)

148/774 153/753 0.90 (0.72–1.13) 183/992 257/1013 0.68 (0.56–0.82)

200/1106 251/1093 0.75 (0.62–0.90)

131/659 159/672 0.79 (0.63–1.00)

104/536 147/571 0.69 (0.54–0.89)

227/1229 263/1194 0.80 (0.67–0.96)

65/472 104/491 0.61 (0.45–0.83)

70/394 106/399 0.62 (0.46–0.84)

95/439 95/407 0.86 (0.64–1.14)

20/78 24/82 0.81 (0.44–1.46)

197/1155 260/1168 0.73 (0.61–0.88)

11/56 21/69 0.63 (0.29–1.28)

57/273 89/283 0.61 (0.43–0.85)

261/1421 298/1411 0.83 (0.70–0.98)

41/366 59/353 0.64 (0.43–0.96)

80/515 103/540 0.78 (0.58–1.04)

137/667 181/691 0.74 (0.59–0.92)

73/218 67/182 0.81 (0.58–1.13)

55/561 62/552 0.86 (0.60–1.23)

276/1205 348/1214 0.74 (0.63–0.87)

240/1345 308/1343 0.73 (0.62–0.87)

87/405 93/403 0.91 (0.68–1.22)

264/1424 322/1430 0.79 (0.67–0.93)

67/342 88/336 0.67 (0.49–0.93)

114/684 129/681 0.85 (0.66–1.09)

217/1083 281/1085 0.72 (0.61–0.86)

193/859 219/842 0.80 (0.66–0.97)

138/908 191/924 0.71 (0.57–0.88)

290/1490 372/1493 0.73 (0.63–0.85)

41/277 38/273 1.07 (0.69–1.67)

n engl j med 391;2 nejm.org July 11, 2024 119

Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease

because of gastrointestinal disorders (79 [4.5%] vs. 20 [1.1%]).

Discussion

In our trial involving patients with type 2 diabe- tes and chronic kidney disease, semaglutide at a dose of 1.0 mg once weekly significantly reduced the risk of major kidney disease events (the pri- mary outcome), by 24%. Semaglutide also reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events and death from any cause while slowing the annual loss of kidney function by a mean of 1.16 ml per minute per 1.73 m2. These benefits reflect important clinical effects on kidney, cardiovascular, and sur- vival outcomes among high-risk patients, particu- larly given the reassuring safety findings, and support a therapeutic role for semaglutide in this population.

The use of GLP-1 receptor agonists in broader populations with type 2 diabetes has previously been shown to improve glycemic control, de- crease body weight, and reduce cardiovascular events.11,15,16 However, previous dedicated trials addressing clinically important kidney outcomes, such as kidney failure or a substantial decline in the eGFR, have been lacking. The effects on sec- ondary and post hoc kidney outcomes in clinical trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists for cardiovas- cular outcomes and glycemic control have sug- gested benefits.15 The magnitude of the benefits observed in our trial provides confidence that the use of semaglutide in patients with type 2

diabetes and chronic kidney disease will reduce the risk of kidney failure and slow the decline in the eGFR, as well as reduce the risk of cardio- vascular events and death.

Few previous trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists have recruited substantial numbers of partici- pants with considerably reduced kidney func- tion. The cardiovascular and survival benefits of semaglutide in such patients are particularly im- portant, since they are among the populations at highest risk for cardiovascular disease and death.

Because three other guideline-directed medi- cal therapies have been shown to have benefits in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kid- ney disease (RAS inhibition, SGLT2 inhibition, and mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonism with finerenone),17 clinicians and patients will need to consider the order and priority of use for semaglutide (and, once studied, other GLP-1 re- ceptor agonists). Although studies of SGLT2 in- hibitors in patients with chronic kidney disease have clearly identified important benefits with respect to kidney outcomes,4-6 the findings re- garding effects on major cardiovascular events and death from any cause in this population have been mixed. In the context of the favorable safety profile, the benefits for these outcomes shown in the present trial provide a rationale for consideration of the use of semaglutide along with these other proven therapies as part of the initial therapeutic options in this patient popula- tion. Combination therapy is likely to be impor- tant in the future, and we found no clear hetero- geneity of effect among patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors at baseline as compared with those who were not, although the statistical power of this analysis was limited. Further analyses of these data are planned, and studies assessing approach- es to combination therapy should be a priority.

The mechanisms of kidney protection with semaglutide are likely to be multifactorial. Al- though a reduction in kidney and cardiovascular risk factors may contribute, a previous mediation analysis showed that these factors only modestly mediated effects on kidney outcomes.11 In addi- tion, the effect of semaglutide was unrelated to changes in body weight regardless of whether the eGFR was computed with serum creatinine, cystatin C, or both,18,19 and consistent effects on creatinine-based and cystatin C–based eGFR were identified in this trial. On the basis of experi- mental models and biomarker data, the direct

Figure 2 (facing page). Subgroup Analysis of the Primary Outcome.

For the primary analysis, the hazard ratio and confi- dence interval were adjusted for the group sequential design with the use of likelihood-ratio ordering. For the subgroup analyses, estimated hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals were calculated in a stratified Cox proportional-hazards model with the interaction between randomly assigned group and the relevant subgroup as a fixed factor. The model is stratified according to SGLT2 inhibitor use at baseline. Gray shading highlights the 95% confidence interval for the result in the overall population. The body-mass index is the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters. Race and ethnic group were reported by the participants; “other” includes Ameri- can Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and “not reported.” For the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, albumin was measured in milligrams and creatinine in grams.

n engl j med 391;2 nejm.org July 11, 2024120

T h e n e w e ngl a nd j o u r na l o f m e dic i n e

effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists on the kidney may include decreases in inflammation, oxidative stress, and fibrosis. Intrinsic kidney and immune cells contain the GLP-1 receptor, and GLP-1 recep- tor agonists reduce cellular expression of proin- flammatory and profibrotic mediators.20-23

Our trial has important strengths. This trial of a GLP-1 receptor agonist in a population of patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes assessed clinically important outcomes, and significant benefits were shown for kidney and cardiovascular outcomes and death from any cause. The trial was large and rigorous and pro- vides clear conclusions about benefits and risks. It also has some important limitations. Because SGLT2 inhibitors and nonsteroidal MRAs had not been approved for kidney protection at the time the trial was initiated, the number of partici-

pants who were receiving these agents at base- line was modest, which limited our ability to assess the effects of combination therapy. The trial was also not powered to detect differences within and between important subgroups, and most participants identified their race as White, whereas kidney disease disproportionately affects marginalized populations, especially Black and Indigenous persons. The effects on kidney func- tion may not be generalizable to other popula- tions, such as those at lower risk, and the trial was not powered to separately detect effects on kidney failure. Finally, it is possible that modest weight loss could slightly lower serum creatinine levels, but the almost identical effects on the cystatin C–based and creatinine-based eGFR in- dicate that this is unlikely to meaningfully influ- ence the trial results.

Table 3. Safety Outcomes.

Adverse Event Semaglutide (N = 1767)

Placebo (N = 1766)

no. of participants (%)

Serious adverse event 877 (49.6) 950 (53.8)

Adverse event leading to permanent discontinuation of semaglutide or placebo

233 (13.2) 211 (11.9)

Prespecified adverse events of special interest

Diabetic retinopathy* 402 (22.8) 398 (22.5)

Covid-19–related disorder 358 (20.3) 404 (22.9)

Serious adverse event: cardiovascular disorder 273 (15.4) 319 (18.1)

Heart failure* 133 (7.5) 175 (9.9)

Acute kidney failure* 172 (9.7) 182 (10.3)

Malignant tumor* 120 (6.8) 104 (5.9)

Serious adverse event: gastrointestinal disorder 95 (5.4) 94 (5.3)

Serious adverse event: rare event 48 (2.7) 57 (3.2)

Acute gallbladder disease* 32 (1.8) 39 (2.2)

Severe hypoglycemia* 37 (2.1) 37 (2.1)

Medication error* 15 (0.8) 13 (0.7)

Serious adverse event: hepatic disorder 18 (1.0) 20 (1.1)

Acute pancreatitis* 10 (0.6) 7 (0.4)

Serious adverse event: allergic reaction 6 (0.3) 9 (0.5)

Serious adverse event: abuse and misuse 1 (0.1) 4 (0.2)

Serious adverse event: suspected transmission of infectious agent through semaglutide or placebo

0 1 (0.1)

* Data were from an additional data-collection form; data for all other prespecified events of special interest were col- lected by means of a Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities search.

n engl j med 391;2 nejm.org July 11, 2024 121

Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease

In this trial, semaglutide reduced the risk of clinically important kidney outcomes, major car- diovascular events, and death from any cause in participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kid- ney disease.

Supported by Novo Nordisk.

Disclosure forms provided by the authors are available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org.

A data sharing statement provided by the authors is available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org.

We thank all the patients who participated in this trial, as well as the site investigators and staff; and Isabella Goldsbrough Alves, Ph.D., of Apollo, OPEN Health Communications, for edi- torial assistance with earlier versions of the figures.

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