Final Project - Analyzing a Use Case for Case Study
Final Project-Case Study
Zakai Meghoo-Peddie
Professor Phillips
HKSP 464: Sports Analytics
Morehouse College
12/05/2021
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Final Project-Case Study
Abstract:
We see numerous representations of what it means to be the favorite team and club to win
it all in the sports world. One of the most common representations in sports is the home field
advantage which is the perceived built-in edge that the team playing at home will have for the
contest. This advantage can be described as non-specific and further broken down into various
sectors such as the outcome of a match, points or goals scored, defensive performance, and
individual player performance. The home-field advantage raises questions and assumptions about
whether the team in this position has some competitive advantage or if this theory is merely a
psychological notion that holds little to no value. In this study, there will be empirical evidence and
research to explain the theory of a home-field advantage in soccer, if any. Methods to be used in
this study will include qualitative and quantitative indicators and descriptors that provide an
analysis of home-field advantage statistics from various leagues at different competitive levels
across the globe.
Figure 1
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Final Project-Case Study
The conversation of home-field advantage has been a topic of discussion nearly since the
inception of organized soccer in 1863 in England. Nearly every game since sports media began has
certain buzzwords or mentions of the term "home team" that reflects some sort of impact that being
a home team might have, whether negative or positive. In most cases, fan engagement is expected
to be more positive, impactful, and desirable in the case of a match where a home team is present
as opposed to a meeting at a neutral location for match day. Factors that play a role in fan
engagement include geographic and economic attributes. These factors indicate a somewhat of an
advantage as matches at home tend to have more local spectators, support in ticket sales from team
fans tend to be higher, and merchandise is often purchased at a higher rate when teams have home
matches. All these factors indicate a huge boost in support for the home team through fan
engagement, but they don't point out a clear advantage in home teams' overall match success. If
anything, they might seem more beneficial to a team from a sales and reputation perspective.
For a long time, it was a commonly held belief about the home-field advantage that through
their support, fans elevated athletic performance, thus contributing to the overall home advantage.
However, this theory is only partially correct. It is the referees' job to maintain order and act as a
disciplinarian on the field, and just like the players, she or he has the potential to really change the
outcome of the match. In soccer, the referee can impartially dictate the match by calling fouls and
penalties, adding more time to the match, and issuing red and yellow cards. It is rare that the
decisions of the referees are impartial in nature because human bias will always be present.
According to data compiled from 128 Italian Serie A soccer games, referees were found to
statistically favor home teams. In each game that was analyzed, referees awarded, on average, 2.69
yellow cards, .27 red cards, and .17 penalties for each team.
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Final Project-Case Study
However, the home team's average was 2.65 yellow cards, .23 red cards, and .2 penalties,
while the away team averaged 2.73 yellow cards, .31 red cards, and .15 penalties (Scoppa and
Schwartz, 2014). These statistics are intriguing because any of those decisions by the referee has
the potential to alter the outcome of multiple matches. For example, when a player receives a red
card, their team will have to resume the remainder of the match with one less player. Also, when a
team is awarded a penalty kick, nearly 76.8% of the time, a goal is a result (Hawerchuk, 2010).
Furthermore, another study discovered that when adding stoppage or injury time, the
referee's decision tends to go in the way of the home team. In the Bundesliga (German Soccer
League), and the Major League Soccer (MLS), when the home team loses by a goal, on average,
extra time, is 12% versus when they're winning by a goal. More notably, an example of this home-
field advantage bias could be represented by the team, Stuttgart. The average stoppage time added
when winning is 2 minutes and 20 seconds, and when they are losing a match, it is 3 minutes and
41 seconds. The differential in stoppage time is 1 minute and 21 seconds, or 57% (Bialik, 2014).
While these numbers may appear insignificant, it is vital to remember that a goal can be scored in a
matter of seconds. So, if a team is winning, it is beneficial to have less stoppage time, but if they
are losing, the more time, the greater chance they have to score. Additionally, the implications of
these results are worrisome.
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Final Project-Case Study
Figure 2
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Final Project-Case Study
Although it may not directly affect players and their performances, crowd pressure can
very much so influence the referees. A study in 1993 by Professor Simo Salimen analyzed 56
matches where there was a home team present, but the crowd was neutral, so the fan support was
equal. In this research, Salimen discovered that the home team did statistically perform better than
the visiting team when their fans supported them; even when the opposing crowd supported the
other team, they still managed to score more goals (Salimen, 1993).
In addition, Alan Nevill conducted research in which he divided 40 referees into two
groups of 20. Then he had them watch a replay of a match between Leicester City and Liverpool
that took place in Anfield, otherwise known as Liverpool’s home stadium. The first group watched
the replay with audio while the second group watched the replay in silence. Although both groups
of referees watched the same game, Nevill had them decide whether 47 different incidents were
fouls or not. The first group of referees who watched with audio, where the crowd supported
Liverpool, called about 15.5% fewer fouls against Liverpool as opposed to the silent group of
referees (Ingle, 2013). The results of Salimen’s research contradict the idea that the home crowd
affects players and provides a direct home-field advantage. Instead, Nevill’s experiment is a clear
indicator that crowd behavior can directly influence the decisions of referees, which can shift the
outcome of a match.
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Final Project-Case Study
The aforementioned findings demonstrate that home teams have an advantage, but they do
not clearly define how much impact those factors such as referee and fan engagement can have on
the outcome of a match. Essentially, how effective is home advantage? Findings from statistics
from the English Premier League seasons 2009 to 2013 found that a home team's win percentage
was 47% and their away win percentage was nearly 27%. Also, 15 out of 20 of these English
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Premier League teams had better home performances than away (Atkins, 2013).
Figure 3
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Final Project-Case Study
Figure 4
Home field advantage is also a common term in international soccer. Recent research that
analyzed nearly 9000 games between 2004 to 2019 has proven that, on average, teams on the
international stage win 50.3% of home matches whilst losing about 25.1 percent of total matches.
The remaining 24.6% of 9000 international matches ended in a draw (Koning, 2008). According to
this analysis, the strength of the home-field advantage is surely evident. Winning nearly half of the
time at home is a significant advantage, especially in professional leagues where every point is
important. Although the studies presented indicate the impact and presence of home advantage,
they do not explain the impact of every factor of the home advantage because it is virtually
impossible to analyze the role of each factor separately based on statistics from the past.
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Final Project-Case Study
While the home-field advantage is a theory rooted in a psychological phenomenon that is
widely accepted, plenty of soccer supporters are unaware of the actual effects of home-field
advantages and how they might work.
Thus, despite home-field advantage being a nearly intangible concept, the home-field
advantage does carry some tangible mechanisms that can be improved to make soccer a fairer
sport. Fortunately, FIFA has already taken strides to make its competitions more balanced by
introducing technology that assists referees in making decisions, such as goal-line technology,
VAR technology, and by implementing a two legged-fixture as seen in the UEFA champions
league, this forces teams to play each other twice—both home and away. However, FIFA was
originally reluctant to implement technology to assist with in-match decisions because it was
believed that it would remove the organic nature of the game. The widely accepted home-field
advantage is decreasing with new improvements to the game, and players and supporters have
widely embraced these technological advancements as another aspect of soccer.
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Final Project-Case Study
Works Cited:
Atkins, C. (2013, April 15). How Much Does Home-Field Matter in Soccer?
Retrieved Dec 5, 2021, from http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1604854-how-
much-does-home-field-advantage-matter-in-soccer.
Bialik, C. (2014, June 30). Stoppage Time Is Often Home-Cooked, Especially
in Major League Soccer. Retrieved April 1, 2015,
from http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/stoppage-time-is-home-cooked-
especial.
Koning, R. H., & Albert, J. (2008). Statistical thinking in sports.
Hill, Y., & Van Yperen, N. W. (2021, April 15). Losing the home field
advantage when playing behind closed doors during COVID-19: Change or
chance? Frontiers. Retrieved December 2021, from
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.658452/full
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