forecasting part 2

Sheet1

Nelson Fabricators -- portable EKG machines
	Alpha (a) =
Week	Actual Production	Forecast		Error	Abs Error
1	434
2	613
3	640
4	531
5	758
6	711
7	790
8	807
9	646
10	714
11	881
12	746
13	702
14	945
15	977
16	750
17
				Bias	MAD Results
			a = 0.30					Which forecast is better, a=0.30 or a=0.70?
			a = 0.70
			a = optimal
								What characteristic of the data directly influences your optimal answer?
								Briefly discuss the benefit of optimizing a.

EKG Machines

Nelson Fabricators

Actual Production 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 434 613 640 531 758 711 790 807 646 714 881 746 702 945 977 750 Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Week

Machines Produced