Equity Report - TESLA
The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Equity Report
FIR 7155 M50
11/22/2019
DIS EQUITY REPORT 1
Executive Summary
Analyst Name:
Company: The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Price on report date: $132.98 on 11/07/2019
Forecast Horizon: 1 year
Recommendation: BUY
Target Forecasted $194.27
Price:
Highlights:
• The Walt Disney Company operates in four business segments: Media Networks, Park Experience and Products, Studio Entertainment, and
Direct-To-Consumer and International
• Historically known for its distinctively amiable human relationship structure, catering to audiences of all ages
• One of the most powerful companies within the entertainment industry and the largest media powerhouse in the planet.
• Recently launched streaming services, similar to Netflix’s service platform, that broadcasts blockbusters and original shows from Star
Wars, Marvel, Pixar, and Disney.
• Rapidly evolving media landscapes with minimal management puts Disney at risk of uncertainty for future succession.
• Despite competition throughout ages, Disney has stayed resilient, surpassing many of its competitive counterparts.
Summary of Analysis:
• Industry: Media Conglomerates o Consumer Discretionary Sector
• Market Capitalization: $274.969B on Nov. 25, 2019
• Cash: $5.418B based on annual data reported Sep. 2019
• Revenue: $69.570B based on the quarterly data reported Sep 2019
• Operating Cash Flow: 5.984 based on annual data reported Sept. 2019
• Free Cash Flow: $1.108B based on annual reported on September 2019
• Analyst Rating: 2
• Dividend Yield: 1.19%
• EPS Estimate vs Actual: 1.55 EPS estimated and actual EPS of 1.84 reported December 30, 2018
DIS EQUITY REPORT 2
Qualitative Analysis Section I. Company Profile Products and Services
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading diversified
international family entertainment and media enterprise with five business segments: media
networks, parks and resorts, studio entertainment, consumer products and interactive media.
Disney is best known for its film and TV productions and theme parks. The Media Networks
fragment incorporates cable and broadcast telecom networks, TV production and distribution
activities, domestic TV stations, radio systems and stations.
Target Audience
The Walt Disney Company’s target market is comprised of a variety of ages, however more
centrally focused on children. Disney’s primary objective audience of 4-12-year-old boys and
girls is broadly diversified because of its general attention to younger kids and pre-teens. This is
essential considering they have the greater influence over their parent's decision-making and are
most excited about the brand. These children are also heavy-users of the brand name in that they
experience the thrill of rides, wear Disney memorabilia and other merchandise, and use the brand
as a source of visual and musical entertainment.
How Products/Services are Distributed
The company distributes its products in a variety of forms, all of which encompasses the five
business segments described above. For example, DIS owns a total of 11 theme parks that
include Walt Disney World and Walt Disney Land. The Parks, Experiences and Products
segment claims and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; the Disneyland Resort in
California; Aulani, a Disney Resort and Spa in Hawaii; the Disney Vacation Club; the Disney
Cruise Line; and Adventures by Disney.
The Studio Entertainment fragment creates and procures live-activity and enlivened movies,
direct-to-video content, musical records and live stage plays. This segment conveys films
fundamentally under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and Touchstone
standards.
Finally, Disney merchandise are offered in forms of apparel, toys, home décor, books,
magazines, foods, beverages, stationary, electronics, fine art, and a variety of Disney Store Retail
Chains across the globe. Their company has a very wide range of products to chose from when
purchasing them as well as numerous entertainment opportunities through all of their parks
around the world.
Other
Disney owns and collaborates with several Media Networks, which has allowed them to expand
vigorously across the years. These media outlets include ABC Television Network, ABC
Entertainment Group, Disney Channels Worldwide, ABC Family, and Disney Media
Distribution. Disney additionally contends in the strong and lucrative sports market. It has done
incredibly well with sports channel ESPN, which accounts for 24% of its total revenue. This is
due to its popularity in sports, in addition to program packaging bundles.
DIS EQUITY REPORT 3
Section II. Industry Overview
The United States media and entertainment industry is a $703 billion market, comprised of
organizations that produce and distribute action pictures, tv programs and commercials,
streaming content, music and audio recordings, broadcast, radio, book publishing, video games
and supplementary services and products. The M&E market, which is 33% of the world M&E
industry, is the largest M&E market in the world.
Disney is a mass media enterprise established in 1923 by Walt Disney. It was originally
an animation company built in the era of black and white silent films, but eventually evolved to a
new generation of media included melodic tunes and vibrant colors. In 1937, Disney released its
first full-length animated film "Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs," which initiated its long and
successful sequence of groundbreaking success.
Following its success in the animated film industry, Disney has since expanded its market to
incorporate live-action television series and movies, a music record company and theme-parks
and cruises around the globe. It is one of the largest mass media company to exist and continues
to generate monumental productions accustomed to boys and girls of all ages. While the shows
and movies are more child or teen-oriented, the parks and cruises also target adults with adult-
only entertainment, bars, clubs and other age-restricted activities.
Section III. SWOT Analysis:
Strengths
The following internal strategic factors are the strengths of The Walt Disney Company:
Strong brand Equity
Growing portfolio of in demand products and services
Strong cooperative growth among business segments
Diversified Business
The Disney brand is known throughout the world and is regularly listed as one of the best global
brands of all time. The company is known to have a wholesome image, as it has built this image
for decades through its cartoons and, more recently, through its theatrical releases.
It has grown from a small producer of animation series in the 1920s to one of the largest medias
and entertainment conglomerate in the world. The company has been benefiting from its
investments in Parks and Resorts group driven by significant price increases at many of its
properties. It also saw big gains from its movie business, in particular via the Star Wars and
Marvel Franchises.
Disney also very strong financial it which it has the capacity to generate robust cash flows.
Disney has a Financial Strength rating of 5, which is substantially high in comparison to its
competitive counterparts such as Comcast, Netflix, and CBS. All of these factors provided the
company with the ability to expand its presence throughout the world over the years, particularly
in Asia.
DIS EQUITY REPORT 4
Weaknesses
The following factors are weaknesses of The Walt Disney Company:
Limited Innovation
Limited Diversification
Limited Expansion – Amusement Parks
The Walt Disney Company’s generic strategy for competitive advantage and intensive strategies
for growth focus on quality and uniqueness of product features, with limited emphasis on rapid
technological innovation. This internal factor is a weakness because technological innovation is a
differentiator and competitive advantage in the international market.
As an entertainment, travel, and consumer products company, Disney’s success depends on
consumer tastes and preferences, which are highly unpredictable. It is very difficult for a
company in this space to consistently create films, cable programming, theme park attractions,
and consumer products that will reliably meet the changing preferences of the broad consumer
market. In addition, more and more of Disney’s business is dependent on overseas markets,
which is even more difficult to predict from a consumer preference perspective. After significant
investments, certain films, cable programs, and resort attractions simply “bomb”, and the result
is a significant loss on the income statement.
Opportunities
The following opportunities are among the main managerial concerns that should be addressed
when growing The Walt Disney Company:
Technological innovation
Growth in various industries
Growth of developing markets
The Walt Disney Company has an opportunity to adopt new technologies to improve its global
business. For example, digital technology implementations can improve business efficiencies and
output quality in amusement parks and resorts. Also, the external factor of growth in various
industries is an opportunity to grow the corporation’s business through diversification and related
managerial approaches. In relation, the growth of developing markets is an external strategic
factor that creates the opportunity to expand the company’s operations, such as through market
penetration in the mass media industry. The opportunities in this aspect of the SWOT analysis
show that The Walt Disney Company can grow its revenues through innovation, diversification,
and expansion.
Threats
DIS Management efforts must tackle the following threats to the business:
Competition
Technological disruption
Digital content piracy
Aggressive competition is especially observable in the international mass media and
entertainment industries. Also, the external factor of technological disruption has potential to
reduce the company’s profits. For instance, technological changes in online product delivery in
the entertainment and mass media markets continue to shift some profits to businesses that offer
online media channels and networks. Moreover, digital content piracy reduces the company’s
potential revenues, especially in markets with weak legal protections against this threat.
DIS EQUITY REPORT 5
Section IV. Management: Executive Leaders
• Robert A. Iger, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer of DIS
• Alan Bergman, Co-chairman of Walt Disney Studios
• Alan Braverman, Senior Executive VP, General Counsel and Secretary
• Bob Chapek, Chairman of Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products
• Alan F. Horn, Co-chairman, Chief Creative Officer of Walt Disney Studios
• Kevin Mayer, Chairman of Direct-to-Consumer and International
• Christine M. McCarthy, Senior Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer
• Zenia Mucha, Senior Executive VP and Chief Communications Officer
• Jayne Parker, Senior Executive VP and Chief Human Resources Officer
• James Pitaro, President of ESPN and Co-chair of Disney Media Networks
• Peter Rice, Chairman of Walt Disney Television and Co-chair of Disney Media Networks
• Jonathan S. Headley, Senior VP, Treasurer and Corporate Real Estate
• Lowell Singer, Senior VP of Investor Relations
• Brent Woodford, Executive VP of Controllership, Financial Planning, and Tax
Major Owners & Compensation
Income statements for executive base pay and bonus are filed yearly with the SEC in the
EDGAR filing system.
Name and Position Title Total Cash Equity Other Total
Compensation
Robert A. Iger
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer $20,875,000 $43,623,303 $1,146,911 $65,645,214
Alan N. Braverman
Senior Executive Vice President,
General Counsel and Secretary
$6,350,213 $4,000,084 $69,233 $10,419,530
Christine M. McCarthy
Senior Executive Vice President and
Chief Financial Officer
$6,833,750 $4,500,064 $71,397 $11,405,211
Kevin A. Mayer
Chairman, Direct to Consumer and
International
$6,974,000 $4,500,064 $83,846 $11,557,910
Jayne Parker
Senior Executive Vice President and
Chief Human Resources Officer
$3,096,938 $3,250,127 $80,456 $6,427,521
Zenia B. Mucha
Senior Executive Vice President and
Chief Communications Officer
$2,961,150 $2,115,177 $24,452 $5,100,779
Total Cash Compensation information is comprised of yearly Base Pay and Bonuses. Total
Equity aggregates grant date fair value of stock and option awards and long-term incentives
granted during the fiscal year. Other Compensation covers all compensation-like awards that
don't fit in any of these other standard categories.
Leadership Background
DIS EQUITY REPORT 6
Bob Iger
Chairman and CEO Robert "Bob" Iger took the reins at Disney in 2006. Iger oversaw several key
acquisitions for Disney, including that of Pixar in 2006, Marvel in 2009, Lucasfilm in 2012, and
most recently 21st Century Fox in 2017. Prior to 2006, Iger served as Disney's COO from 2000
until 2005 when he was appointed president and chairman. Iger originally joined Disney's
executive team in 1996 as head of ABC Group. Robert Iger is Disney's single-largest individual
shareholder with 1.078 million shares as of March 20, 2019.
Alan Braverman
Alan Braverman is the senior executive vice president, general counsel, and secretary of the Walt
Disney Company. Braverman joined Disney in 1996 when the company acquired ABC, Inc.,
where he served as chief counsel. Braverman assumed his current position in 2003 and directs
the company's entire staff of attorneys worldwide. Following a recently-reported sale on July 5,
2019, Braverman, holds 98,922 shares of the company.
Christine McCarthy
Christine McCarthy obtained the position of senior executive vice president and CFO at the Walt
Disney Company in 2015. She is in charge of Disney's finances worldwide and oversees
company financial planning, investor relations, tax planning, supply chain management, and
corporate real estate. McCarthy also directs Disney's efforts in the area of corporate citizenship.
McCarthy previously served as treasurer and executive vice president of corporate real estate.
Per McCarthy's most recent filing with the SEC on March 20, 2019, the Disney CFO holds
131,139 DIS shares, making her the company's second-largest individual shareholder.
News
Management Repositioning
• Disneyland Resort will be overseen by Rebecca Campbell, who most recently was president of Europe, Middle East and Africa for the company’s direct-to-consumer and
international segment.
• Walt Disney World Resort will be overseen by Josh D’Amaro, who previously was president of Disneyland Resorts. Campbell and D’Amaro will assume their new roles
starting in November.
• The Disneyland Paris duties will be handed off to Michael Colglazier, who leads Disney parks and resorts in Asia.
New Streaming Services
• Disney Plus officially launched last week in the US, Canada and the Netherlands. Disney has called it the future of the company. It's the entertainment giant's streaming service for
almost everything it creates, taking on Netflix as well as an emerging crop of rivals that
includes Apple TV Plus and HBO Max.
Summary of Technical Analysis
DIS EQUITY REPORT 7
The chart above shows the 48-week price history.
The highest price in the past 48 weeks was on November 25, 2019 at $151.64.
The lowest price in the past 48 weeks was on March 19, 2019 at $98.54.
This is a $53.10 difference. The stock is currently trading at the high end of its 44-week
range
DIS has recently launched its newest media streaming service which has significantly
increased the demand of Disney Stock. In little more than a day, Disney Plus registered
more than 10 million people, the company said Wednesday. By comparison, HBO Now
took nearly three years to reach about 5 million subscribers.
The chart above showcases the trend of stock within the past three months. Within the
three-month range, the highest price still remains $151.64 on November 25, 2019 and the
lowest price evidently was $128.15 on October 3, 2019.
DIS EQUITY REPORT 8
Financial Ratio Analysis The following report analyzes the financial statements of The Walt Disney Company for fiscal
year 2018 (year ending Jan 31, 2018). The report accounts for annual data in correlation to the
intermittent impact of sales. The analysis is confined into sections that covers the short-term and
long-term solvency of the company, asset utilization, profitability, and overall market value of
Walt Disney Company. Each section identifies and evaluates the health and prosperity of Walt
Disney’s financial status and determines future initiatives and position for growth.
Section I. Short-term Solvency
Liquidity Ratio Ratio Formula FY18 Ratio
Calculated (DIS)
Current Ratio 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 0.94x
Quick Ratio (𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 − 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦)
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 0.86x
Cash Ratio 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 0.23x
Liquidity ratios are crucial in determining a firm’s capacity to satisfy debt obligations. Based on
the data above, Walt Disney Company is in an adequate financial position in terms of liquidity.
With a current ratio of 0.94, we identify that DIS current assets account for 94% of its current
liabilities. Low values for the current ratio (values less than 1) indicate that a firm may have
difficulty meeting current obligations. However, the company does meet the industry average,
making DIS current ratio acceptable to most creditors. The quick ratio identifies a company's
ability to fulfill short-term obligations with its most liquid assets and therefore excludes
inventories from its current assets. Walt Disney Company has a quick ratio of .86 which
indicates that 86% of its current assets can be liquidated and converted to cash within a 90-day
period, in order to pay off its current liabilities. Lastly, the cash ratio is a measurement of a
company's total cash and cash equivalents to its current liabilities. The metric determines the
firm’s capability to repay its short-term debt with cash or near-cash resources. The company’s
cash ratio of 0.23 identifies that Walt Disney Company insufficient funding in cash to pay-off
short-term debt. This only means that in worst case scenario, the company would have to sell or
liquidate assets in order to account for the debts they currently hold.
Section II. Long-term Solvency Financial Leverage
Ratio Ratio Formula
FY18 Ratio
Calculated (DIS)
Total Debt Ratio (𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 − 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦)
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 0.46
Debt-Equity Ratio 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 0.40
DIS EQUITY REPORT 9
Equity Multiplier
Ratio
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 1.87
Times Interest Earned
Ratio
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 21.76
Cash Coverage Ratio 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 + 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 26.17
Financial leverage ratios identify the value of equity in the firm by evaluating its overall debt
status. The data shows that Walt Disney Co. only uses 46% of its debt and 54% of its equity as
long-term financial activities. The equity multiplier ratio shows us that 1.87% of Disney’s assets
are financed or owed by shareholders. Similarly, the times interest earned ratio indicates that
21.76% of the firm’s income can be utilized to cover interest expense given a period of time.
Lastly, the Cash Coverage Ratio is a metric that calculates the company’s capacity to pay
interest. With a metric of 26.17, it is evident that Disney continues to cover its interest an
exceptional rate.
Section III. Asset Utilization
Turnover Ratio Ratio Formula FY18 Ratio
Calculated (DIS)
Inventory Turnover
Ratio
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐺𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠 𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑑
𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 23.51x
Days in Sales Inventory
Ratio
365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑇𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 15.53
Receivables Turnover
Ratio
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 7.19
Days in Sales
Receivable Ratio
365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑇𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 50.78
Total Asset Turnover
Ratio
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 0.60
Capital Intensity Ratio 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 1.66
Turnover ratios determine the company’s ability to efficiently and effectively utilize its assets at
maximum capacity. Disney’s high turnover rate indicates that the company’s purchasing system
is tightly managed. A higher inventory turnover illustrates the company’s ability to sell
good/services quickly and maintain consumer demand. This also means that Disney’s sales and
purchasing departments remain in sync. Contrarily, Walt Disney Company’s low receivables
turnover ratio suggest they have a poor collection process and are in dire of a credit policy
DIS EQUITY REPORT 10
reassessment. The asset turnover also tells us that the company lacks ability to efficiently utilize
assets to generate sales. However, Disney seems to be operating at industry average, in
comparison to many of its competitive counterparts like Viacom, with a similar asset turnover
ratio of 0.55. Lastly, the capital intensity ratio measures the company’s net sales in proportion to
the amount invested. Disney’s capital intensity level of 1.66 identifies that the firm generates a
proportional amount of sales to the company investment/assets.
Section IV. Profitability
Profitability Ratio Ratio Formula FY18 Ratio
Calculated (DIS)
Profit Margin Ratio 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 44.94%
Return on Assets
(ROA) Ratio
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 12.77%
Return on Equity
(ROE) Ratio
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 25.83%
Profitability is addressed with respect to expenses and costs, and it is evaluated in relation to
assets to identify how viable an organization is in deploying assets to generate sales and
eventually profits. The profit margin of 44.94% tells us that Disney generates $0.45 profit per
dollar of sales, which selectively is pretty low compared to other companies within the industry.
In turn, Disney’s ROA indicates that for every dollar invested in assets, $0.13 was produced in
net income. Finally, Return on Equity shows the firm’s ability to turn assets into profits.
Essentially, this means that for every dollar the company put in, Walt Disney company earns
$0.26 in net.
Section V. Market Value
Market Value Ratio Ratio Formula FY18 Ratio
Calculated (DIS)
Price-Earnings Ratio 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 13.84
Market-to-Book Ratio 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 32.36
Market value ratios are used to evaluate the current share price of a company's stock. Walt
Disney’s calculated P/E ratio of 13.84 indicates that shares sell 13.84 times the firm’s earnings
per share. This is significantly lower than industry average when compared to competitors such
as Netflix (NFLX) who’s metric is calculated at 99.87. However, a high P/E ratio is does not
necessarily determine whether a company has substantial stock value. In addition, the Market-to-
Book ratio is used to compare a business’s net assets that are available in relation to the sales
price of its stock. This ratio depicts that Walt Disney’s stock costs 32.36x its net assets.
DIS EQUITY REPORT 11
Section VI. Du-Pont Analysis 𝑅𝑂𝐸 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 𝑥 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐵𝑢𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑛 𝑥 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝐵𝑢𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑛 𝑥 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑇𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑥 𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒
ROE using the extended Du-Point Analysis for DIS:
𝑅𝑂𝐸 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇
𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 𝑋
𝐸𝐵𝑇
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 𝑋
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝐸𝐵𝑇 𝑋
𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑋
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑅𝑂𝐸 = 0.2496 𝑥 1.046 𝑥 0.8118 𝑥 0.6028 𝑥 2.022
ROE = 0.2583 = 25.83%
It is evident that return on equity is one of the most important indicators of the firm’s
profitability and potential growth. The ROE measures the after-tax profit the company earns
in comparison to the total amount of shareholder’s equity. Based on time trends of Walt
Disney Company FY15-FY18, we see fluctuation in several components of the ROE.
With an EBIT Margin of 0.250 in 2018 in comparison to 0.252 in 2015, the data indicates
that there has been a -1% growth rate in firm’s EBIT margin within the past 3 years. In
contrast, we see a positive in all other components of ROE such as Interest Burden with a
growth rate of 2.48% from 2015 to 2018, which shows us the percentage of EBIT left after
the deduction of interest expense. Similarly, the trends also show an increase in DIS tax
burden of 23.45% since 2015. The tax burden defines proportion of earnings before tax after
income tax charge, which essentially means that the higher tax burden, the higher the Walt
Disney Co. return on equity. Overall, Walt Disney Company has projected 27% growth in
ROE within the past 5 fiscal periods and is predicted to grow for coming years based on
linear regression analysis depicted in Figure 1.
Walt Disney Company ROE vs Competitors ROE (2012 – 2018)
DIS EQUITY REPORT 12
Walt Disney Company’s ROE has comparatively been determined lower than industry
average in comparison to many of its competitive counterparts. For example, one of Disney’s
largest competitors, Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (TFCFA) currently holds 63.3% return on
equity and has continuously ranked higher than 97% of the 439 companies in the
entertainment industry for the past 10 years. This means that TFCFA holds a 59.6%
advantage in terms of equity return, and that the company efficiently utilizes its investment
funds to generate growth in earnings. Furthermore, we can see from long-term perspective
that Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. encompasses more financial leverage in the entertainment
industry, and far more than Walt Disney Company alone.
Section VII. Revenue Growth FY16-FY18 Figure 1. Historical growth rates for the Walt Disney Company show a linear decline
within the past 5 years.
Walt Disney Company indicate a positive revenue growth rate, as the company revenues have
increased by 13.3% from $52.5 billion in 2015 to $59.4 billion in 2018, adding close to $7
billion to its revenue base. However, the continued decrease from 2015 to 2017 suggests linear
decline as growth of Parks and Recreation are offset by increased operating expenses.
Table 1. Revenue growth rates calculated based on Revenue within FY14-FY18 time period
(shown in figure 1).
Fiscal
Period
DIS
Revenue
(in millions)
Growth
Rate
2014 48,813.00 --
2015 52,465.00 6.96%
2016 55,632.00 5.69%
2017 55,137.00 -0.90%
2018 59,434.00 7.23%
6.96% 5.69%
-0.90% 7.23%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8
FISCAL PERIOD
R E VE N U E G R O W T H
F Y 1 4 - F Y 1 8
Revenue Growth Linear (Revenue Growth)
DIS EQUITY REPORT 13
Figure 2. Select income statement data for the past three years
Figure 3. Expectations for fiscal year 2019, based on quarterly data from the first two quarters.
The data depicts a 1.06% growth rate for Fiscal year 2019.
Income Statement
FY16-FY18
(Recorded in Millions)
18-Sep 17-Sep 16-Sep Revenue Growth and Common
Size Values
FISCAL PERIOD FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 18 FY 17 FY 16
Revenue 59,434 55,137 55,632 7.23% -0.90% 5.69%
Cost of Goods Sold 32,726 30,306 29,993 7.39% 1.03% 19.64%
Gross Profit 26,708 24,831 25,639 7.03% -3.25% 6.00%
Other Operating Expense 3,011 2,782 2,527 7.61% 9.17% 6.85%
Operating Income 14,837 13,873 14,358 6.50% -3.50% 7.90%
Interest Expense -682 -507 -354 25.66% 30.18% 25.14%
Net Interest Income -574 -385 -260 32.93% 32.47% 55.00%
Other Income (Expense) 466 300 770 35.62% -156.67% 1.17%
Other Income (Minority Interest) -468 -386 -399 17.52% -3.37% -17.79%
Pre-Tax Income 14,729 13,788 14,868 6.39% -7.83% 6.73%
Tax Provision -1,663 -4,422 -5,078 -165.90% -14.83% 1.22%
Net Income (Continuing Operations) 13,066 9,366 9,790 28.32% -4.53% 9.58%
Net Income 12,598 8,980 9,391 28.72% -4.58% 10.74%
EPS (Basic) 8.4 5.73 5.76 31.79% -0.52% 14.06%
EPS (Diluted) 8.36 5.69 5.73 31.94% -0.70% 14.49%
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,507.00 1,578.00 1,639.00 -4.71% -3.87% -4.27%
Depreciation, Depletion and
Amortization 3,011 2,782 2,527 7.61% 9.17% 6.85%
EBITDA 18,422 17,077 17,749 7.30% -3.94% 7.11%
DIS EQUITY REPORT 14
Figure 4. Depicted Earnings per share growth rate calculated based on Figure 3 2019
expectations.
FISCAL
YEAR EPS
Assumed Growth
Rate
2019 4.96 --
2020 5.06 1.98%
2021 5.26 3.80%
2022 5.42 2.95%
2023 5.8 6.55%
Figure 5. Expectations for the next five years, using the growth rates from linear historical
growth pattern and assumptions of each income statement line item as a percentage of revenue
based on my past three years’ data.
Income
Statement FY 2018 ACTUAL
FY19
Expectations (Reported in
thousands) Q1
% of
Revenue Q2
% of
Revenue
Total Revenue 14,922,000 -2.55% 20,245,000 26.29% 61,473,000
Cost of Revenue 8,376,000 -7.46% 12,819,000 34.66% 54,794,144.9
Gross Profit 6,546,000 3.73% 7,426,000 11.85% 31,462,310.8
Total Operating
Expenses 3,155,000 8.59% 4,666,000 32.38% 19,744,179
Operating Income 3,391,000 -0.80% 2,760,000 -22.86% 11,678,940
Interest Expense 198,000 17.68% 472,000 58.05% 1,997,268
Total Other
Income/Expenses
Net
4,014,000 97.48% 331,000 -1112.69% 1,400,626.5
Income Tax
Expense 1,647,000 60.84% 395,000 -316.96% 1,671,442.5
Income from
Continuing
Operations
5,590,000 50.16% 1,623,000 -244.42% 6,867,724.5
Net income 5,452,000 48.86% 1,760,000 -209.77% 7,447,440
Basic EPS 3.56 47.47% 0.98 -263.27% 4.95
EBITDA 8,263,000 47.65% 4,064,000 -103.32% 17,196,816
DIS EQUITY REPORT 15
Risk and Factors Section I. Risk Factors One of Disney’s most daunting risk factor is the economic climate. The entertainment industry as
a whole is based on families having disposable income. If there is a recession, it could have a
fairly large impact on The Walt Disney Corporations financial stability. Not only is the economic
condition of the United States a major risk factor, the global economy also poses a threat.
“According to the MPAA, about 70% of studios' annual box office revenue is derived from
international markets” (Competitive Landscape). Disney now has to be mindful of where the
economy is heading as a whole, which creates a challenging objective for the company.
The Walt Disney Corporation are constantly competing with others in the industry. Since Disney
is the largest entertainment entity in the United States a lot of their competition is on a global
basis. This global competition is something to keep an eye on in the future, and local competition
has been mounting as well. “Competition in the industry is high, and the trend is increasing”
(Competitive Landscape). New sport media outlets are expanding and even though none have yet
to directly compete with ESPN, they are slowly reducing ESPNs hold on the market.
This point is exacerbated in terms of sports licensing through ESPN and other networks. With
more competition and the same amount of licensed materials, firms are not able to hold licenses
for all their needed content, creating an interesting supply and demand. I definitely feel this
(Recorded in
thousands)
FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023
Assumed Growth
Rate: 3% 2% 4% 3% 7%
Total Revenue 61,473,000 62,702,460 65,210,558 67,166,875 71,868,556
Cost of Revenue 54,794,144.86 55,890,028 58,125,629 59,869,398 64,060,256
Gross Profit 31,462,310.75 32,091,557 33,375,219 34,376,476 36,782,829
Total Operating
Expenses 19,744,179 20,139,063 20,944,625 21,572,964 23,083,071
Operating Icome 11,678,940 11,912,519 12,389,020 12,760,690 13,653,938
Interest Expense 1,997,268 2,037,213 2,118,702 2,182,263 2,335,021
Total Other
Income/Expenses
Net
1,400,626.5 1,428,639 1,485,785 1,530,358 1,637,483
Income Tax
Expense 1,671,442.5 1,704,871 1,773,066 1,826,258 1,954,096
Income from
Continuing
Operations
6,867,724.5 7,005,079 7,285,282 7,503,841 8,029,109
Net income 7,447,440 7,596,389 7,900,244 8,137,252 8,706,859
Basic EPS 4.96 5.06 5.26 5.42 5.80
EBITDA 17,196,816 17,540,752.32 18,242,382.41 18,789,653.89 20,104,929.66
DIS EQUITY REPORT 16
could negatively affect DIS in the long run, considering the constant evolution in market and
industrial demographic.
Section II. Discount Rate We begin by using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate the risks of investing in
Walt Disney Company stock.
The formula is listed as follows: 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 = 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 + 𝐵𝑒𝑡𝑎( 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 𝑜𝑛 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 − 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒)
𝑅𝑒 = 𝑅𝑓 + 𝛽(𝑅𝑚 − 𝑅𝑓 ) Next, we find the necessary components of the equation:
Based on the United States Treasury Bill, we determine the Risk-free rate (𝑅𝑓 ) is 1.55.
Figure 1. DIS Beta (β) is 0.99
VarianceDIS 25.48
VarianceS&P 500 10.29
CovarianceDIS, S&P 500 10.19
z
DIS EQUITY REPORT 17
Correlation coefficientDIS, S&P 500 0.63
βDIS 0.99
αDIS 0.27
Lastly, we use the given information to calculate the expected rate of return
𝑹𝒆 = 𝑹𝒇 + 𝜷(𝑹𝒎 − 𝑹𝒇)
𝑅𝑒 = 0.0155 + 0.99(0.1147 − 0.0155) 𝑅𝑒 = 0.113708 = 11.37%
Calculations Risk-Free Rate Rf 1.55%
Expected Rate of Return on Market Portfolio Rm 11.47%
Systematic Risk (ΒDIS) Of Walt Disney Co. Βdis 0.99
Expected Rate of Return On Walt Disney Co.’s Common Stock E(Rdis) 11.37%
With an Expected Rate of Return of 11.37%, we determine that DIS has a sufficient, as it
measures the efficiency of any investment.
In the Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield.
Therefore, the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future
as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks.
More accurate measurement return returns are Return on Capital.
Section III. Fair Price We use the dividend Discount Model: Single Stage to calculate DIS Fair Price
The formula is as follows:
Assumptions: Risk Premium
Market portfolio dividend growth rate 9.52%
Add: Market portfolio dividend yield 1.95%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio 11.47%
Less: Risk-free rate of return 1.55%
Market portfolio risk premium 9.36%
DIS EQUITY REPORT 18
𝑃0 = 𝐷1
𝑅𝑒 − 𝑔 =
𝐷0(1 + 𝑔)
𝑅𝑒 − 𝑔
We recently identified the 𝑅𝑒 to be 11.37%. We find on DIS financial statements that its dividends, as of 7/5/2019, is $0.88
Lastly, we determine that 10.40% growth rate (YTY)
So we plug in and solve, using the information given:
𝑃0 = 𝐷1
𝑅𝑒 − 𝑔 =
𝐷0(1 + 𝑔)
𝑅𝑒 − 𝑔
𝑃0 = 0.88(1 + 0.0480)
0.1137 − 0.0480
𝑃0 = 0.92224
0.0657
We establish that fair price using the Dividend Discount Model is $194.27
Section V. Recommendation It is apparent DIS actual is below calculated target price. In conclusion, I would recommend to
BUY Walt Disney Co. stock as it is easily the logical decision as investor, with the following
reservations:
• Economic Climate changes pose as risk to integrity of Walt Disney Company
• Unstable executive management positions that could be detrimental to the future successes of the company
• Rise in technological evolution and changing time trends Fortunately, the current launch of Disney Plus could streamline a new source of revenue to the
business and introduce DIS to a more global market. Based on such analysis, I do recommend
DIS to investors for purchase with moderate risk tolerance.
Appendix i. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/dis/financials/ ii. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/balance-sheet?p=DIS iii. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/cash-flow?p=DIS iv. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS v. https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/DIS/dividend vi. https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/DIS/analysis vii. https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/DIS/ownership viii. http://panmore.com/walt-disney-company-swot-analysis-recommendations ix. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-
rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=billrates
x. https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/DIS/data/pe-ratio xi. https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/about/ xii. https://finbox.com/DIS/models/dcf-growth-exit-10yr xiii. https://simplywall.st/news/an-intrinsic-value-calculation-for-the-walt-disney-company-dis-shows-
investors-are-overpaying/
xiv. https://www.stock-analysis-on.net/NYSE/Company/Walt-Disney-Co/DCF/Present-Value-of-FCFF