600-700 word speech.
Models of Decision Making
Models of Decision Making
Effective Decision
a timely decision that meets a desired objective and is acceptable to those individuals affected by it
Rationality – a logical, step-by-step approach to decision making, with a thorough analysis of alternatives and their consequences
1. The outcome will be completely rational
2. The decision maker uses a consistent system of preferences to choose the best alternative
3. The decision maker is aware of all alternatives
4. The decision maker can calculate the probability of success for each alternative
Bounded Rationality – a theory that suggests that there are limits upon how rational a decision maker can actually be
1. Managers suggest the first satisfactory alternative
2. Managers recognize that their conception of the world is simple
3. Managers are comfortable making decisions without determining all the alternatives
4. Managers make decisions by rules of thumb or heuristics
Satisfice – to select the first alternative that is “good enough,” because the costs in time and effort are too great to optimize
Heuristics – shortcuts in decision making that save mental activity
Z Problem-Solving Model
Look at
the facts
and details
What alternatives
do the facts
suggest?
Can it be
analyzed
objectively?
What impact
will it have on
those involved?
Sensing
Intuition
Thinking
Feeling