What factors related to the state formation of Egypt explain its authoritarianism?

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CPO 3403 – Politics of the Middle East

Final Exam Study Guide

CONCEPTS & THEMES

Demographic homogeneity versus heterogeneity; youth bulge

Exogenous state building and state formation; path dependency

Colonialism, imperialism, militarization, and securitization; divide and rule; invasion,

occupation, and intervention

Regime type: monarchy versus republic; presidential versus parliamentary system

Political economy: oil and rentierism, socialism, liberalism, and (crony) capitalism

Personalistic and patrimonial politics versus institutionalized and professionalized

institutions

High concentration of executive power; weak civil-military relations; dynastic or

hereditary succession

Elections, coups, revolution, regime change, transitions, and civil war (ballets versus

bullets)

Zero-sum game or winner takes all versus political inclusion

Repression, cooptation, manipulation, and reform

Secular nationalism versus Islamism and Jihadism

National identity versus Pan-Arabism, Pan-Islamism, regionalism, tribalism, ethnicity,

and religion; sectarianism

Social media and demonstration effect

IRAQ

World War I

Fall of Ottoman Empire (1258-1918)

Arab Revolt and Arab Nationalism (Sharif Hussein and two sons, Abdullah (Jordan) and

Faisal (Iraq)

1916: Sykes-Picot Agreement

1920: British Colonialism

British Mandate & Constitutional Monarchy (1920-1958)

Modern state, boundaries, and monarchy under King Faisal

Constitution allows monarch to appoint and dismiss prime minister and parliament

1930s: Religious and ethnic instability; Shiʿi rebellion in South; demands for political

representation and religious and cultural recognition

1945-1958: Stability under British and prime minister; oil revenues spent on public

goods; political inclusion for Shiʿa and Kurds

Military Republic (1958-1963)

Nationalist opposition against 1948 Anglo-Iraq Treaty, 1952 British and American bases,

1955 Baghdad Pact, 1956 British, French, and Israeli invasion of Suez Canal

1958: Free Officers Coup under General Abd al-Karim Qasim and Colonel Abd al-Salam

Arif; land reform and nationalization, Baghdad Pact ends, alliances with USSR and

China, rejection of Kuwaiti independence; Iraqi versus Arab nationalist identity (United

Arab Republic or UAR)

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1963: Arif’s Ba’athist and Arab Nationalist coup

Baʿathist Republic (1968-1979)

1968: Bloodless Baʿathist Coup (Iraqi identity); consolidation of government control;

repression and coercion; transition to presidential system under Revolutionary Command

Council (RCC) led by Chairman Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr and Vice Chairman Saddam

Hussein

1970: New constitution: RCC responsible for defense and security; can declare war and

approve laws and budget; president appoints, promotes and dismisses judiciary, civil and

military personnel and members of the Baʿath Regional Command; national assembly not

established until 1980

1970s: Oil revenues go toward socioeconomic development and stability; socialist

economy with nationalization, public sector employment, heavy industry, military-

industrial complex, land distribution, education, and healthcare

1961-1970: Kurdish revolt with support from Iran, Israel, and the US; demands for

autonomy through elected regional executive and legislative authority

Saddam Hussein (1979-2003)

1979: Party rule to personalistic dictatorship; support base comes from Sunni Baʿathists

and clan loyalists from rural and tribal roots (Tikrit); these individuals become political

advisers and military and security officials (patrimonialism)

1980-1988: Iran-Iraq War costs 150,000-190,000 lives, drops in oil exports, and debt to

the Arab Gulf, Europe, and the US; leads to gains in territory with military intact and

national pride

1990-1991: Kuwait invasion leads to United Nations embargo and sanctions, defeat by

US-led coalition, loss of life, declining oil exports and trade revenues, international

isolation, Kurdish and Shiʿi revolts, and no-fly zones in the Kurdish north and Shiʿi South

2000-2003: After 9/11, George W. Bush accuses Saddam of harboring Al-Qaeda and

developing WMD; Bush and neo-conservatives invade and occupy Iraq to promote

democracy as part of their New Middle East Initiative; the Coalition Provisional

Authority (CPA) pursues De-Baʿathification of the Iraqi government, bureaucracy, and

military – which contributes to a Sunni Arab insurgency led or joined by Al-Qaeda in

Iraq and later ISIS or ISIL

2005-2006: Free and fair elections lead to Shiʿi-dominated parliament and further

marginalization of Sunnis under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki

SYRIA

French Colonialism (1920-1946)

World War I and collapse of Ottoman Empire; Faisal Hussein promised Syria by British

during Arab Revolt, but receives Iraq after the British promise Syria to France in Sykes

Picot Agreement

1936-1939: France establishes parliament, which is dominated by urban notables,

merchants, and landlords; France integrates poor Alawites from the rural West into the

army as part of a divide and rule strategy

Independence (1946-1963)

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1947-1949: Arab-Israeli War

1949-1954: Military coups and instability

1947-1963: Baʿath Party – Arab Nationalism, anti-imperialism, anti-Zionism, and

socialism; Syria joins Egypt in United Arab Republic (UAR) between 1958 and 1961

1963: Baʿathist coup against Nasserites, Islamists, and liberals; implementation of radical

and leftist policies, including land reform, nationalization, and labor laws; builds social

base of peasants and workers, but alienates Sunni landlords, industrialists, and merchants,

leading to capital flight

1967: Military defeat against Israel leads to al-Assad coup from within and the Corrective

Movement

Hafez al-Assad (1970-2000)

Presidential monarchy and Alawite dominance; government dominates physical and

symbolic space with security apparatus and images of leader (cult of personality); al-

Assad pragmatically brings Sunni businesspeople back into the fold with business

partnerships between them and Alawite officers; also, integrates Sunnis back into the

government, military, and bureaucracy, but at lower levels

1973: Yom Kippur War against Israel gives the Syrian government and military

legitimacy

1976: Syria intervenes in Lebanese civil war

1978-1982: Failed Islamist uprising (Hama)

1984: Failed power bid by Hafez’s brother Rifaat (limits of patrimonialism)

1990s: Fall of Soviet Union, Western rapprochement, and economic liberalization

through social market economy

Bashar al-Assad (2000-Present)

2000-2001: Damascus Spring leads to high expectations and disappointment; government

becomes family republic; Bashar and the technocrats consolidate power and poach

companies from the old guard; social market economy transitions to greater liberalization

and crony capitalism, leading to higher income inequality; income inequality and rural-

to-urban migration is exacerbated by subsidy cuts and prolonged drought

2003-2005: Tensions with the US and its allies over Iraq and Lebanon; to prevent an

American invasion and regime change, Syria supports Jihadists in Iraq; after being

implicated in the Hariri assassination, Syria withdrawals from Lebanon, at least on the

surface

2011: Popular uprising and civil war

TUNISIA

Homogenous religious (Sunni) and ethnic (Arab) demographics

Formation (1500s-1956)

1574-1800s: Ottomans rule through independent governors known as Beys; modernize

economy, administration, and military with economic debt to Europe

1881: French protectorate; French exert political and economic control through the Bey;

develop infrastructure and education

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1934-1956: Habib Bourguiba establishes the Constitution (Destour) Party, which calls for

independence and engages in national mobilization through strikes, demonstrations, and

limited violence

Bourguiba (1956-1987)

Progressive, socialist, and secular with radicals and conservatives in the opposition

1960s: Nationalization and authoritarianism with one party and control of civil society

and media; nationalization and socialism lead to economic crisis and protests

1970s: Socialist-turned-conservative economy with secular-liberals, leftists, and Islamists

in the opposition

1980s: Limited reform and loss of legitimacy leads to strikes, riots, and civil strife by the

Islamists; paves the way for a bloodless coup by the military and security apparatus

Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (1987-2011)

1987: Inclusion and reform

1989: Does not implement electoral reform, divides the opposition, bans the moderate

Islamist party (Ennahda or Renaissance Party)

1990s: Repression of Islamists and the opposition; increased protests lead to cosmetic

reform, but without change in electoral laws, creating fear and apathy

2002: Referendum on the abolition of presidential term limits and immunity

2000s: Economic recession and family corruption

2005-2010: Coalition for Rights and Freedoms in Tunisia established by unified

opposition consisting of secular-liberal, leftist, and Islamist parties; organize protests,

strikes, and revolts

2010-2015: Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in December; social media fuels

popular demonstrations; Ben Ali resigns in January 2011; continued strikes and protests

during power vacuum and instability; Constituent Assembly election takes place before

presidential and parliamentary election with Islamist-Secular coalition in Constituent

Assembly and power sharing between the president and prime minister; opposition

parties and civil society form committees and commissions to promote and implement

political reform; tension between secular status quo and Islamist parties intensifies,

especially over article one in the constitution regarding religion and state; draft

constitution unveiled and adopted before presidential election; assassination of leftist

politicians causes Ennahda to resign; civil rights and corruption attorney takes over as

interim president; secular status quo politician Beji Caid Essebsi voted in as president;

democracy vs. stability, socioeconomic challenges, and high ISIS/ISIL recruits