Tim Hortons Decision making powerpoint presentation
ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING
CHAPTER 2
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PETER DRUCKER’S RATIONAL STEPS IN DECISION MAKING
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Simon’s Normative Model of Decision Making
INTUITION, JUDGEMENT & CREATIVITY AFFECT DM
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INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING
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PROBLEMS WITH INTUITION DECISION MAKING
Flawed information - Intuition decision making will respond quickly to inaccurate, insufficient, unreliable, or incomplete information based on patterns from previous experiences.
Short term emotional bias – Cognitive (reasoning) research has shown that even experts' decisions are influenced by unrelated emotions during the time of making a decision.
Insufficient consideration of alternatives
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WHEN DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO USE AN INTUITIVE DECISION-MAKING STYLE?
Decision failure will have little consequence, and intuition will provide for a quick selection. These decisions are simple, unimportant, and in many cases may result in habit. Choosing the same kind of coffee everyday because you are happy with how it tastes is a good example.
REFERENCE:
Matzler, K., Ballom, F. and Mooradlan, T. (2007, Fall). Intuitive Decision Making. MIT Sloan Management Review. Retrieved Feb 9, 2019, from http://sloanreview.mit.edu/the-magazine/files/pdfs/49108SxW.pdf
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THREE TYPES OF HEURISTICS
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AVALABILITY HEURISTICS
REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTICS
BASE RATE HEURISTICS
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AVALABILITY HEURISTICS
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AVALABILITY HEURISTICS
ARE THERE MORE WORDS IN ENGLISH THAT:
START WITH K
or
2) “K” FOUND IN THIRD LETTER
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STAGES IN THE CREATIVE THINKING PROCESS
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Q1 FOR YOUR KID
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ANS 1
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Q2 FOR BUIDING YOUR HOME
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ANS 2
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Q3
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B
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Q5
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ANS 5
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Q6
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ANS 6
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Q7
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ANS 7
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Q8
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ANS 8
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Q9
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ANS 9
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INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS VS. GROUP DECISIONS
Individual Decisions:
Decisions are taken by a single individual (one-man control).
Individual decisions are less costly.
They are based on limited information gathered by managers.
Decisions are taken in situations of crisis or emergency.
Group decisions:
Decisions are taken by a group of persons.
Group decisions are costly in terms of time and money.
They are based on extensive information collected by members of the group.
Group decisions are taken when there is sufficient time to make decisions.
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INDIVIDUAL VERSUS GROUP DECISION MAKING
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GROUPS ARE SUPERIOR IN:
Setting objectives
Evaluating alternatives
Making choices
INDIVIDUALS ARE SUPERIOR IN:
Quick Search
Controlled Implementation
Easy follow-up and control
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Group Problem Solving Techniques
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HOW DELPHI TECHNIQUE WORKS
The Delphi method is a forecasting process framework based on the results of several rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round.
First, select a suitable facilitator and experts with relevant knowledge, and make sure the problem is defined well.
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Airplane is crashed in an Island: out of 13, select any three items so that you can stay alive for many days
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The box of matches
01 big water bottles
5 warm sweaters
First aid kit
Transistor radio
A gun with twenty bullet
Bag with 20 magazine
Lifeboat for 4 persons
Compass
Anti-insect spray
Sewing kit
Flashlight
Axe
REFERENCES
Esgate, Anthony; Groome, David (2005). An Introduction to Applied Cognitive Psychology. Psychology Press. p. 201. ISBN 978-1-84169-318-7.
Phung, Albert. "Behavioral Finance: Key Concept- Overreaction and Availability Bias". Investopedia. February 25, 2009. p.10. December 1, 2013.
Schwarz, Norbert; Bless, Herbert; Strack, Fritz; Klumpp, Gisela; Rittenauer-Schatka, Helga; Simons, Annette (1991). "Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 61 (2): 195–202. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.61.2.195.
Gilovich, Thomas; Griffin, Dale; Kahneman, Daniel (2002-07-08). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. ISBN 9780521796798.
Gilovich, T. D.; Griffin, D.; Kahneman, D. (2002). "Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment". New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
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REFERENCES
Education 2020, government course; definition of logrolling: "An agreement by two or more lawmakers to support each other's bills."
Buchanan, James M. and Tullock, Gordon (1962). The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy. Ann Arbor, Michigan: University of Michigan Press.
Evans, Diana (1994). "Policy and Pork: The Use of Pork Barrel Projects to Build Policy Coalitions in the House of Representatives". American Journal of Political Science. 4. 38 (4): 894–917. doi:10.2307/2111726.
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THANK YOU
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