CRMJ 521 WEEK 8

Chapter 15

What Next?

The Future of Terrorism

Introduction

· Projections involve theoretical constructs of trends based on available data.

· Predictions are practical applications of data (that is, intelligence) to anticipate specific behaviors by extremists.

An Overview of Near-Term Projections

· The Theory of Terrorist “Waves”

· Anarchist: 1880s to the end of World War I.

· Anti-colonial: End of World War I until the late 1960s.

· New Left wave: 1960s to the near present.

· Religious: About 1980 to the present.

· Fourth Generation War

· First Generation: Tactics of line and column.

· Second Generation: Tactics of fire and movement.

· Third Generation: Nonlinear tactics.

· Fourth Generation: Widely dispersed and undefined distinctions.

· Whiter the “Old Terrorism”

· Commonalities

· Leftist ethnonationalist motives

· Leftist ideological motives

· Surgical and symbolic selection of targets

· Deliberate media manipulation and publicized incidents

· Relatively low casualty rates

· Identifiable organizational profile

· Hierarchical organizational profile

The Future of Terrorism: Terrorist Environments in the 21st Century

· Terrorist Typologies in the New Era

· State-sponsored terrorism.

· Dissident terrorism.

· Religious terrorism.

· Ideological terrorism.

· Criminal dissident terrorism.

· Persisting Sources of Terrorism

· The Middle east.

· Palestine and Israel.

· Latin America.

· Europe.

· Africa.

· Asia.

· Case: The Western Alliance

The Future of Terrorism: New Threats

· High-Tech Terrorism

· Information technologies and Cyberterrorism.

· Weapons of mass destruction.

· Exotic technologies.

· Soft Targets and Terrorist Symbolism

· Soft targets include civilians and passive military

Controlling Terrorism: Ending Terrorist Campaigns and New Challenges

· A Theoretical Model for Ending Terrorist Campaigns

· Patterns

· Decapitation

· Negotiations

· Success

· Failure

· Repression

· Reorientation

· Responding to Terrorism: Conventional Adaptations

· Government responses

· Societal responses

· Countering extremism

· Combatting Terrorism in the New Era

· Covert shadow wars.

· Domestic “Homeland” security measures.

· Counterterrorist financial operations.

· Global surveillance of communications technologies.

· Identifying and disrupting transnational terrorist cells and support networks.

· Continued Utility of Force

· Elimination of terrorist threats.

· General deterrence.

· Specific deterrence.

· Demonstrations of national will.

· Countering Terrorist Financial Operations

· Finding hidden fortunes.

· The Case for International Cooperation

· Intelligence and law enforcement.

· Objectives:

· Destabilization of terrorist networks

· Disruption of terrorist conspiracies

· Collection of intelligence from captured terrorist operatives

· Incapacitation of imprisoned operatives

Prospects for Terrorism in the United States

· The Future of International Terrorism

· The Future of the Violent Left

· The Future of the Violent Right