Research Paper Conlcusion
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CHAPTER 4
1 INTRODUCTION
The analysis, presentation, and interpretation of the data will be covered in this chapter. The influence that immigrants have had on the field of senior care will be the primary topic of discussion. In this section, we will provide quantitative information on how each state's gross domestic product (GDP) has either declined or increased as a direct result of the participation of immigrants in the senior care market. It will provide responses to the following research questions:
a) “Has the GDP risen or declined over the recent years due to the legal immigrant workforce in the senior care economy?”
B) “Over the recent year, has the supply for jobs and demand for senior care risen or declined?”
In addition, this section will test the hypotheses of the research. The research hypotheses include the following:
First Hypotheses:
Null hypothesis: “Gross Domestic Product has risen over the years due to legal immigrant work in the economy of senior care.”
Alternative hypothesis: “Gross Domestic Product has declined over the years due to legal immigrant work in the economy of senior care.”
Second hypotheses:
Null hypothesis: “Over the years, job supply and demand for senior care has risen.”
Alternate hypothesis: “Job supply and demand for senior care has declined over the years.”
Correlation analysis is another statistical test which will be utilized in the analysis process. The purpose of this test is to establish whether the link between GDP and number of lawful immigrants in the three states is positive or negative. A Pearson’s correlation coefficient will be computed to establish the nature and extent of the connection that exists between the GDP and the number of people who entered the country legally in each of the states of California, Florida, and Texas. Similarly, we will test hypothesis of demand and supply. In addition, multiple regression analysis will be used, in which the level of GDP will be determined not just by one variable but by some different factors. The degree of education of the immigrant will be included as a factor in this analysis.
2. DATA RESULTS
We surveyed several literatures for one month on immigration in the US, focusing on three states: California, Florida, and Texas. We obtained data on the USA's legal immigrants for senior workers in 2018 and their GDP from American Immigration Council (2020), California, AIC (2020), Florida, and AIC (2020) Texas. We encountered challenges in obtaining immigration information on the supply and demand of senior health care. We, therefore, consulted other websites for data, such as Google, to obtain demands and supply per individual state. The general demographic results included the following:
2.1Demographic information
2.1.1Immigrants in California
In 2018, immigrants made up 27 percent of the total population, totaling 10.6 million people. There were 5,3 million foreign-born females, 4,9 million males, and 421 thousand and twenty-five minors living in California. “Mexico was the most common country of origin for immigrants (38%), followed by the Philippines (8%), China (7%), India (5%), and Vietnam (5%).” At least 9.6 million Californians were born in the United States to immigrant parents in 2018. This represented 24 percent of the state's total population. In California, legalization rates are significantly higher than the national average. As of 2018, 5.6 million immigrants had naturalized, while 2.2 million were in the process of becoming naturalized US citizens in 2017. Sixty-nine percent of immigrants rated their command of the language as "well" or "very well."
The educational backgrounds of California's immigrant population tend to fall on two extremes. In 2018, nearly a third (32%) of adult immigrants did not have any formal education beyond high school, while nearly a quarter (29%) had some college (AIC 2020).
There are more than 2 million US citizens in California who have an undocumented family member. In 2016, 2.2 million people in the United States were living in the country illegally, making up 20% of the immigrants and 6% of the entire state population. Between 2010 and 2014, at least one illegal family member was present in the homes of 4.7 million Californians, including 2.4 million US citizens. Nearly 1.7 million children in the state at the time were US citizens living with at least one non legal family member, making up nearly 20% of the state's youth population. “More than 183,000 people who qualified for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals live in the Golden State.” As of March 2020, over 183,460 DACA holders were residing in California, with a total of approximately 238,432 having received DACA since 2012.
One in three Californians in the workforce were immigrants, and they were an integral element of the state's economy across many sectors. In 2018, 33 percent of the workforce was made up of immigrants, who numbered 6.6 million. The healthcare field had an increase of 882041 workers in California (Zhang et al., 2020).
In 2018, $80.8 billion was paid to the federal government by immigrant-led households and $38.9 billion was paid to the state and local governments. “In 2018, undocumented immigrants in California contributed an estimated $2.5 billion in state and local taxes on top of the $4.5 billion they paid in federal taxes, while DACA enrollees and DACA-eligible persons in California contributed $497.6 million to the local and state governments.”
2.1.2 Immigrants in Florida
More than 20% of Floridians were born outside the United States, and 1 in 8 Floridians are US citizens of immigrant parentage. In 2018, immigrants made up 21 percent of the total population or 4.5 million people. There were 2,250,000 foreign-born women, 2,000,000 foreign-born males, and 247,316 foreign-born children in Florida.
The countries where most immigrants came from were; “Cuba, Haiti, Colombia, Mexico, and Jamaica.” More than half of all immigrants in Florida are legal US citizens (AIC, 2020). In 2017, roughly 759,614 foreign nationals met the requirements to apply for US citizenship; of those, 2.5 million had already naturalized as of 2018. Immigrants in Florida represent a wide range of backgrounds and educational attainment. Roughly a fifth of adult immigrants in the United States in 2018 did not finish high school, while roughly a third of them earned a bachelor's degree or above. About a quarter of Florida's workforce is foreign-born, and they're vital to the state's success in many fields. Florida reported growth in the health care sector as 417607.
In 2018, immigrant households paid 23.2 and 8.5 billion to the federal government and to the state and local governments respectively. About $77.6 million was contributed to Florida's state and municipal governments by DACA holders and DACA-eligible persons in 2018. Immigrants spend almost $100 billion annually in the state of Florida. In 2018, households headed by immigrants in Florida had $98.5 billion in discretionary income.
2.1.3 Immigrants in Texas
The bulk of Texans' immigrant ancestors came from Mexico, and that trend has continued for quite some time. A sixth of the state's total number of people is foreign-born, and they contribute to the economy in a wide range of sectors. One in six Texans is foreign-born, while another is a US citizen whose parents came from other countries.
In 2018, foreigners accounted for 4.9% of the total population. There were 2.33 million immigrant adults and 319,331 immigrant children living in Texas. 51% of immigrants came from “Mexico, India, El Salvador, Vietnam, and Honduras.” Over one in six Texans or 4.5 million people, were born in the United States to immigrant parents. In Texas, naturalization rates are significantly higher than the national average.
As of 2018, 1.9 million immigrants had been legalized, while 957,647 were eligible to naturalize in 2017. Texas has high- and low-educated immigrants. In 2018, twenty six percent of older immigrants owned college degrees or higher, while thirty seven percent had less than a high school diploma.
Families headed by immigrants contributed 26.3 billion to the federal government and 12.3 billion to state and local governments in 2018 (AIC, 2020). Taxes paid in 2018 by unauthorized immigrants in Texas were 2.6 billion dollars at the federal level and 1.6 billion dollars to the state and local governments. In 2018, those who received DACA and those who were eligible to apply for DACA in Texas paid the state and local governments 244.7 million dollars. Over $100 billion is spent annually in Texas because of immigrants. In 2018, immigrant-headed households in Texas had a purchasing power of $112.8 billion.
Data representation in tables and pie charts for easier data analysis
|
US COUNTIES |
Legal immigration for senior care workers increases from 2017 |
GDP (billion) |
|
California |
882041 |
16 |
|
Florida |
417067 |
4.5 |
|
TEXAS |
353951 |
4.1 |
Table 1: A table showing each state’s legal immigration in senior health care and GDP.
Figure 1: A pie chart showing GDP growth.
|
Us counties |
College degree or more |
Some college |
High school diploma |
Less than a school diploma |
GDP (billions) |
|
California |
255,792 |
167,588 |
176,408 |
282,253 |
16 |
|
Florida |
120,949 |
95,925 |
116,779 |
83,413 |
4.5 |
|
Texas |
92,027 |
56,632 |
70790 |
130962 |
4.1 |
Table 2: “A Table showing each state’s legal immigration in senior health care based on their college degree, some college, high school diploma, and less than a school diploma and GDP.”
|
Us counties |
Legal immigrants in senior care Increase from 2017 |
Supply of jobs and Demand for senior care |
|
California |
882041 |
1142041 |
|
Florida |
417067 |
517067 |
|
Texas |
353951 |
499200 |
Table 3: A table showing the legal immigrants in senior care increase and their effect on supply and demand for senior care.
Figure 2: A pie chart showing supply and demand for jobs in senior care in California, Florida, and Texas
3. DATA ANALYSIS
3.1 First Hypothesis testing
Null hypothesis (H0): “The GDP has increased due to legal immigration workers in the senior care sector.”
Alternate (H1): “The GDP has decreased due to legal immigration workers in the senior care economy."
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Graph 1: Scatter plot showing GDP against legal immigrants in senior care.
3.1.4 Multiple Linear Regression
We inputted the data results from Table 2 in Excel and used ANOVA to analyze the data results using multiple linear regression. We obtained the following statistics.
. 3.1.5 Correlation matrix
|
|
college degree or more |
some college |
high school diploma |
less than a school diploma |
GDP |
|
College degree or more |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Some college |
0.981906 |
1 |
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|
High school diploma |
0.960232 |
0.99573 |
1 |
|
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|
Less than a school diploma |
0.922136 |
0.832191 |
0.777451 |
1 |
|
|
GDP |
0.990683 |
0.946968 |
0.913262 |
0.966230902 |
1 |
Figure 4: “A correlation matrix of (GDP) and the independent variables college degree or more, Some college, high school diploma, and less than a high school diploma.”
3.2 Second Hypothesis Testing
Null Hypothesis (H0): “The number of immigrants in USUS senior care has increased demand and supply for senior care.”
The alternate hypothesis (H1): “The number of immigrants in USUS senior care has decreased the demand and supply of senior care.”
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Graph 2: Linear Scatter plot of legal immigrants’ growth in US states to Supply of jobs and demand for senior care.
3.2.2 Correlation analysis
From our regression Figure 5, the correlation coefficient (multiple R) is 0.996369, which is positive.
3.2.3 Interpretation
The graph 2 above showed a positive relationship between legal immigrants' growth in senior care and the supply of jobs and demand for senior care.
From the linear regression figure 5, Y represented our dependent variable supply and demand for senior care workforce in US states, while X₁ represented our independent variable, legal immigrants in the aged care sector. Comparing our p-value (0.05426) to the significance p-value of .05, our p-value was above 0.05. A p-value above .05 necessitates acceptance of the null hypothesis (Alkarkhi et al., 2020). We, therefore, accepted the null hypothesis that “the supply for jobs and demand for senior care workforce has increased due to the immigrants increase in the senior care sector.” R-square was .9928 meaning we could explain 99% of the results.
From the correlation analysis, 0.996369 was positive and strong since it was near+1, which is strong (Zhuo et al., 2022). This suggested a strong positive correlation between our dependent variable, supply and demand for senior care workforce in US states and our independent variable, legal immigrants in the senior care sector.
4. SUMMARY
The data analysis provided answers to the research questions by testing the hypotheses. We accepted both null hypotheses that “the GDP has increased due to legal immigrant work in the senior care economy" over the years and that “the supply of jobs and demand for senior care has increased over the years due to legal immigrant work in the senior care economy.” Orrenius et al. found similar results that an increase in immigration leads to an increase in the supply and demand of workers; thus, our results support the evidence from the literature review.
References
Alkarkhi, A. F. M., & Alqaraghuli, W. A. A. (2020). Statistical hypothesis testing. Applied Statistics for Environmental Science with R, 57–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-818622-0.00005-8
American Immigration Council, (2020).Immigrants in California. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-california
American Immigration Council, (2020).Immigrants in Florida. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-florida
American Immigration Council, (2020).Immigrants in Texas. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-texas
Chalmer, B. J. (2020). Hypothesis testing. Understanding Statistics, 101–111. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780367813161-6
Flórez, A. J., Alonso Abad, A., Molenberghs, G., & Van Der Elst, W. (2020). Generating random correlation matrices with fixed values: An application to the evaluation of multivariate surrogate endpoints. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 142, 106834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2019.106834
Orrenius,P.M.,Zavodny,M.,&Gullo,S.(2020).How does immigration fit into the future of the US labor market?
Rom, D. M., & McTague, J. A. (2020). Exact critical values for group sequential designs with small sample sizes. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 30(4), 752–764. https://doi.org/10.1080/10543406.2020.1730878
TERÁN, L. E. E. (2021). Civil rights and immigration: Mexican American Civil Rights in Texas, 89–154. https://doi.org/10.14321/j.ctv1wsgrvs.8
Zhang, X., Lin, D., Pforsich, H., & Lin, V. W. (2020). Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages Human resources for health, 18(1), 1–9. https://human-resources-health.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12960-020-0448-3
Zhuo, B., Jiang, D., & Di, Y. (2020). Test-statistic correlation and data-row correlation. Statistics & Probability Letters, 167, 108903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2020.108903
882041 417067 353951 1142041 517067 499200
LEGAL IMMIGRANTS GROWTH IN SENIOR CARE IN US STATES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR SENIOR CARE WORKFORCE
GDP growth
california 65%
florida 18%
t exas 17%
16000000000 4500000000 4100000000
A pie chart
XCALIFORNIA FLORIDA TEXAS 882041 417067 353951 Y
CALIFORNIA FLORIDA TEXAS 1142041 517067 499200
882041 417067 353951 16000000000 4500000000 4100000000
LEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN SENIOR CARE
GDP