Article 3
Getzen’s Health Economics & Financing, 5th Edition
Copyright © John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Chapter 15: History, Demography, and the Growth of Modern Medicine
QUESTIONS
Does economic growth cause population growth?
Is medical care the main reason life expectancy is increasing?
Must a society be wealthy to invest in medical care?
Do economic failures cause plagues and other mortality?
QUESTIONS (cont.)
Was Malthus right? Will populations continue to expand until food supplies are exhausted?
Why do families have fewer children today?
Does medical technology create economic growth or does economic growth create new medical technology?
15.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS DETERMINED THE SHAPE OF HEALTH CARE
15.2 BIRTH RATES, DEATH RATES, AND POPULATION GROWTH
Natural Rate of Population Increase = Birth Rate − Death Rate
15.3 THE STONE AGE
- Time span: 5 million to 10,000 b.c.
- Economy: Subsistence hunter-gatherer
- Total population: Beginning to 4 million
- Distribution of income: Roughly equal
15.3 THE STONE AGE (cont.)
- Growth rate (doubles): .0007% (100,000 years)
- Medical care: Shaman/witch doctor
- Life expectancy: 28 years
- Medical $: Not applicable
15.4 THE AGRICULTURAL AGE
- Time span: 10,000 b.c. to 1800 a.d.
- Economy: Farming and harvesting
- Total population: 4 million to 400 million
- Distribution of income: Top-heavy, unequal
15.4 THE AGRICULTURAL AGE (cont.)
- Growth rate (doubles): .046% (1,500 years)
- Medical care: Empirical
- Life expectancy: 24 years
- Medical $: Perhaps 1%
15.4 THE AGRICULTURAL AGE (cont.)
- Investment and Trade
- Civilization, War, and Government
- The Decline of Civilizations Leads to Population Declines
- The Plague
15.4 THE AGRICULTURAL AGE (cont.)
- Food Supply Determines Population
- The Rise of Economics
- The Malthusian Hypothesis
15.5 THE INDUSTRIAL AGE
- Time span: 1800 to 1950 a.d.
- Economy: Manufacturing
- Total population: 0.4 billion to 1.6 billion
- Distribution of income: Mixed
15.5 THE INDUSTRIAL AGE (cont.)
- Growth rate (doubles): .65% (108 years)
- Medical care: Empirical
- Life expectancy: 35–65 years
- Medical $: 2% to 4%
15.5 THE INDUSTRIAL AGE (cont.)
- Why Malthus Was Wrong
- Demographic Transition
- Demographic Change, Income Distribution, and the Rise of the Middle Classes
15.6 THE INFORMATION AGE
- Time span: 1950 to future
- Economy: Services
- Total population: 1.6 billion to 20 billion?
- Distribution of income: Not yet clear
- Growth rate (doubles): 1.88% (40 years) but slowing (perhaps toward 0%)
- Medical care: Scientific
- Life expectancy: 70+ years
- Medical $: 6% to 16%+
15.6 THE INFORMATION AGE (cont.)
15.7 INCOME AND HEALTH
15.8 REDUCING UNCERTAINTY: THE VALUE OF LIFE AND ECONOMIC SECURITY
- The Value of Risk Reduction
- Social Security and Health Insurance
15.9 THE RISE OF MODERN MEDICINE
- Preconditions for Change
- The Growth of Medical Science and Technology
- Did Better Medical Care Increase Life Expectancy?
Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.