final assignment
NOTE: T is sample is excerpted from t e capstone
case analysis report of a winning team. T e content
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General Environmental Analysis
On Electricity Services Industry
Respect ully Submitted to:
Shengsheng (Charlie) Huang
Execut ve Summary
General external environment analysis can cover a wide array of topics. The subjects covered
above were deemed to be the critical factors that affect the industry. There are numerous other
factors that also affect the industry but are too diverse to cover. The following will list some of
the key subjects to remember from each segment.
The demographic segment in electricity industries relies on the overall population count. Trends
are showing a decrease in the growth rate of world population. Such decreases will lower the
demand intensity for electricity than previous years.
The economic segment’s key driver is U.S. economic growth. U.S. Previous relationships
between GDP and electricity demand have flipped. Electricity demand was normally double that
of GDP until recently. Now electricity still relates to GDP directly, but that demand is
substantially less than GDP. Another relationship is that the electricity industry accounts for
millions of jobs in the U.S.
Political and legal segment in the industry relies on emissions. Electricity production accounts
for a majority of the countries’ emissions. This means that the industry is prone to high
regulations. Major regulation started in 1970 with the Clean Air Act and as expanded and grown
since then. Currently, EPA is pushing for stricter regulations in previously built and future
plants.
The socio-cultural segment of the industry relies on the public’s values and opinions. These
values and opinions have changed over the years. Most of these influences are in regard to
improving the environment and reducing emissions. They also control the use of nuclear energy
in electricity production. The public still fears nuclear energy due to past disasters.
Technological key drivers are technologies that have decreased the cost of renewable energy and
increased the efficiency of electrical consumption devices. New breakthroughs have finally
brought the cost down of renewable energy producing devices such as solar panels. Technology
breakthroughs have also brought about higher efficiency devices such as fridges and light bulbs
that reduce energy consumption. Overall technology is reducing the use of electricity.
Last, the global segment drivers rely on the global demand of electricity. Trends show emerging
market countries to have high increases in the demand of electricity, such as China. These
countries are relying mostly on coal as it is the cheapest and easiest form of electricity
production. OCED and member countries are pushing emerging markets to stop using coal due
to its high emissions.
General Env ronmental Analys s
The focus of this general external environment will be the energy/electricity industry. The
subjects covered are mostly on a domestic scale with the exception of a few international
subjects. All segments of the analysis can be linked together and have overlapping aspects. After
the last segment is covered, a general summary will be given including the relationship that will
be described between the segments. The first external analysis segment covered will be the
demographic segment. From there it will follow the graph above in a clockwise rotation.
Demograph c Segment
Demographic factors are important influences on the electricity industries. One of the most
important influences is the population in which the industries serve. Electricity consumption is
worldwide on large scales as electricity is needed for almost everything from AC cooling to plant
production. As the population increases, so does the demand of electricity. Trends from the
Graph 3.1 Populat on Growth w th Percent
1800s in the United States showed major increases in population, as much as 35 percent increase
from 1790 to 1800 (POP Culture: 1800, 2014). The population per square mile of land in 1800
was only 6.1 persons and has increased by 1,205 percent to 79.6 persons per square mile of land
by 2000 (POP Culture: 1800, 2014). Electricity Consumption in the US shows similar increases
in consumption with only 4,049 kilowatts an hour used in 1960 (The World Bank Group, 2015).
The average demand in kilowatts an hour in 2000 had increased by 238 percent to 13,671 kWh
with an overall output of 4 trillion kilowatts of power compared to only 799 billion kilowatts of
power in 1960 (The World Bank Group, 2015). Therefore, such data shows that there is a direct
relationship between the demand in population and electricity consumption. This relationship
shows that as population grows, so does the demand for electricity.
Future population data is showing a decline in the growth of population worldwide. Most of the
decline is due to, “An unexpected and dramatic decline in the birth rates of developing countries
causing a drop in the world population” (World Population growth rate down, 1978). Current
United States population shows over 320 million people with a net gain of a person every 14
seconds (U.S. and World Population Clock, 2015). Future US projections are showing that these
numbers will increase, with a decreasing rate. See Graph 3.1 below from the United States
Census Bureau.
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0. 0
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0
0,000
100,000
1 0,000
200,000
2 0,000
300,000
3 0,000
400,000
4 0,000
1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 21 23 2 27 29 31 33 3 37 39 41 43 4
Population Growth % Change
Source Population Projections, 2014)
As shown from the Census Bureau, the percent change in the growth of population starts at
almost 1% per year, but will most likely drop below .5% per year. At the same time, it is
important to note that these increases are still large as the population is in the millions. The US
expected population in 2015 will only see a .82% increase in population, but in actual numbers,
that is over a 2 million increase in people, while year 2060 will be less than 2 million increase.
Decreases in population expansion, “is of major significance in the sense that it is the largest
deceleration in population growth rates since independence” (Tales the new Census Tells, 2011).
Such leveling off of increases in populations could affect the demand of electricity as,
“Population growth affects energy use through increases in housing, commercial floor space,
transportation, and economic activities” (Market Trends: U.S. energy demand, 2014).
Econom c Segment
Economic factors also play an important role in the electricity industries. There are a few drivers
in the economic environment that stem locally. It is important to note that the majority of
electricity production comes from coal and natural gas while nuclear, hydropower, and
renewable sources only account for a small amount of production. Therefore, fossil fuels
account for the majority of energy production in the United States. “Crude Oil and natural gas
are the main sources for energy in the US and around the world” (Hassan & Nassar, 2013).
Government trends show the use of fossil fuels has increased with the increased production of
electricity since the 1950s (Primary Energy Production by Source 1949-2012, 2015). Natural
gas is produced mostly in the U.S. because of its abundance, while the rest is imported from
Canada (American Gas Association, 2001). Therefore economic activity such as growth and
recessions will play a major impact on the productivity level of natural gas, thus, possibly
affecting supply and prices of electricity, all else held constant.
Electr c ty ndustr es are also affected by U.S econom c growth on a broader scale. Energy
ndustr es account for more than n ne m ll on jobs d rectly and nd rectly (IHS CERA, 2012).
Numerous stud es show that electr c ty growth s d rectly related to econom c growth. “Electr c
ntens ty n the U.S. economy… s s gn f cantly related to general level of econom c act v ty…”
(R s ng Electr c ty Costs, 2006). Yet, these stud es are poss bly no longer val d as the
relat onsh p between econom c growth and electr c ty demand s chang ng. Graph 3.2 shows the
relat onsh p between h stor cal and projected U.S. economy and electr c ty demand. H stor cal
trends show a d rect relat onsh p between U.S. GDP and electr c ty demand. More recently, th s
relat onsh p has changed as the U.S. GDP has actually surpassed electr c ty demand and s
expected to cont nue. The EIA states that short-term changes n econom c output and electr c ty
Graph .2 U.S. Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Relationship
Source (U.S. economy and electricity demand growth are linked, 2013)
demand are pos t vely correlated, yet long-term trends are d fferent (“U.S. economy and
electr c ty,” 2013). The EIA suspects that the economy and electr c ty demand w ll st ll stay
related, but the electr c ty demand, “w ll be less than half the rate of econom c growth” (“U.S.
economy and electricity,” 2013). The change in the relationship is due to many factors but
specifically new policy standards and improved technology which will be discussed in other
segments. It is important for energy industries to realize the importance of economic growth or
recessions. The relationship has changed, but it is still positively correlated. Drops in economic
growth could lower electricity use while economic growth could spur use of electricity.
Pol t cal/Legal Segment
Political and legal influences on the electricity industry have evolved over time. Some of the
most major influences in electricity production come from laws and regulations concerning the
emissions from the plants. This is mostly because the production of electricity produces a lot of
emissions. Production actually accounts, “for about 40% of the country’s total carbon dioxide
emissions…” (Linn & Nathan, 2013). The US government stayed out of the regulation of energy
markets until the 1930s and specifically in the 1970s (Doren, 2009). The first major energy
regulation came into play as the Clean Air Act of 1970. “The enactment of the Clean Air Act of
1970 resulted in a major shift in the federal government’s role in air pollution control. This
legislation authorized the development of comprehensive federal and state regulations to limit
emissions…” (History of the Clean Air Act, 2013). Part of the 1970 Clean Air Act was the
creation of the well-known Environmental Protection Agency (History of the Clean Air Act,
2013). Throughout the years, the government has created amendments to the original act to
increase regulations and standards. It is important to realize that different forms of electricity
production produce different levels of pollution in the environment. The two most widely used
forms of electricity production have two opposite environmental impacts as, “Coal combustion is
generally more carbon intensive than burning natural gas…coal accounts for 75% of CO2
emissions…” (Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2014). Therefore it is harder to obtain
higher standards of lower emissions for coal power plants. Throughout the years, the government
has created amendments to the original Clean Air Act to increasing regulations and standards
yet, “some important regulatory moves have been made, but the most significant steps are still in
the future” (Linn & Nathan, 2013). Current new proposals from the EPA are aimed at stricter
regulation and reviews for new sources of energy with new projects having to show the “best
available control technology” (Linn & Nathan, 2013). Therefore newer coal plants will be more
expensive to build and operate compared to natural gas plants in the energy sector because of
extensive government regulations on environmental emission as the , “primary mechanism for
the reduction will be tough emissions limits on coal-fired power plants” (Electricity Prices Soar
as Government Regulation Surges, 2013). This means there will be a push for more efficient
means of production of electricity such as natural gas with low emissions. One recent policy
push is the extended use of subsidizing. The US government creates incentive programs to bring
down the costs or create tax breaks for consumers to deploy forms of renewable energy such as
wind and solar (Direct Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Year
2010, 2011). US subsidies have doubled from 2007 to 17.9 billion to 37.2 billion (“Direct
Federal Financial,” 2011). These pushes for renewable energies are to gain independence from
fossil fuel forms of energy production. Future programs and policies could essentially decrease
the need for fossil fuel electricity plants.
Energy industry deregulation is another trend that effects the industry. Deregulation allows
customers to have their choice of electricity supplier. Deregulation has also allowed competition
in the energy sector ultimately lowering the prices for consumers (Deregulation of Energy, 2014)
According to Pentland, governments started deregulating the energy industry more than two
decades ago (2013). Continuing deregulation will continue to create more competition.
Soc o-Cultural Segment
The fourth segment in the analysis that will be covered is the socio-cultural of the general
industry. Socio-cultural are general perceptions and values from the population that can
influence change and demand in the industry. Publics’ opinions and values can change over time
and create different influences as research shows, “the powerful role that human values play in
shaping individuals’ engagement with environmental issues” (Corner, Markowitz, & Pidgeon,
2014). These values and opinions directly influence the energy industry as, “Public attitudes to
coal-fired power plant or indeed any source of energy are important in shaping government
policies. Such attitudes are also important in determining whether new coal projects can
proceed” (Fernando, 2006). Well before the Clean Air Act of 1970, major pollution issues had
not yet been faced for public opinions and values to be formed. “As cities became more
populated towards the end of the 19th century, industrialized cities across Europe and the United
States were experiencing a new kind of pollution: waste from industries and factories” (Nonpoint
Source Pollution, 2008). Not until the 1960s did the public become involved as, “an
environmental movement began to emerge that sought to stem the tide of pollutants flowing into
the planet’s ecosystems” (A&E Television Networks, 2009).
Past values and opinions have carried over to recent years and have grown stronger as, “the
substantial increase in public concern about global warming that has occurred in the U.S. in the
last few years…caused an increasing amount of public opposition to new coal-fired power
plants” (U.S. Coal Politics, 2011). The public has had such a strong influence on the energy
industry that they were actual able to block expanded energy production in Texas recently.
“Public outcry about air pollution blocked proposed coal-fired electricity plants in Dallas, Waco
and Houston in the 2000s” (Texas Workforce Commission, 2010). It is extremely important to
note the importance of the public opinions and values regarding coal energy production. The
public clearly does not support the use of coal plants due to the high levels of pollution. At the
same time, the public’s views on renewable energy and nuclear power also affect the
consumption of coal energy.
A recent survey showed that 90 percent of people polled would switch to a renewable energy if it
cost the same (primary). Yet, if the cost of switching to a renewable energy cost more only 9
percent said they would switch. Therefore not only does public opinions for the environment
play a role in energy production such as coal, so does the price of energy. Public opinion has
also played a major role in expanding renewable sources of energy such as nuclear production.
Public opinion of nuclear production has fluctuated frequently over the years. “In the early days
of nuclear power development, public attitudes toward the technology were highly favorable…”
(A Short History of Nuclear Regulation, 1946-1999, 2012). Yet opinion changed in the 1980s,
“after the Three Mile Island accident, public support had plummeted to 46 percent, and it
dropped further to 34 percent after the 1986 Chernobyl accident” (M. V., 2011). Years later after
Three Mile Island and Chernobyl nuclear disasters, public opinion was slowly changing. “Public
attitudes toward nuclear energy were slow to rebound from the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl
disasters, but the polls…had consistently found public support growing through the 1990s and
2000s. Just as momentum appeared to have shifted in favor of nuclear energy, the Fukushima
disaster occurred, which caused support to shrink back” (Stoutenborough, Sturgess, & Vedlitz,
2013). The Fukushima nuclear disaster happened on March of 2011 and since then, nuclear
energy production has slowly regained support (World Nuclear Association, 2015). A recent
study showed that 73 percent of people surveyed said they would consider switching to nuclear
energy if given the choice (primary). Yet only 55 percent survey said they even worried about
the safety of nuclear energy (primary). The future of nuclear energy will be decided by the
public. Future disasters could stem more public opposition to nuclear energy expansion, and such
circumstances are unknown.
In summary, socio-culture is a key driver in the energy industry. The values and opinions of the
public prefer clean and green methods to generate and consume electricity, yet they will also be
reluctant to switch to renewable energy if the cost is higher. The future of nuclear energy is
unstable as the public’s opinion is constantly changing, mostly due to disasters that create fear.
Renewable energy is a strong topic in the United States with most people wanting a more
renewable source of energy. Yet, “support for renewables declines as the public learns more
about them, especially their costs, whereas people become less concerned about nuclear as they
acquire more actual risk information” (Greenberg, 2008). Future nuclear power plants could be
blocked by safety concerns of public perceptions (Electric Power Generation, 2015).
Technolog cal Segment
The technology behind the production of energy and the various ways energy is consumed has
changed rapidly over the years. The first part of the technological segment will discuss the
history and current technology behind the production of energy. The second half will discuss the
technology revolution behind the consumption of energy.
One of the first substances to create electricty in the United States was coal. The U.S. had its first
commercial electricity plant in New York City “in 1880, coal powered a steam engine attached
to the world's first electric generator” (Union of Concerned Scientists, n.d.). A year later
hydroelectricity began in Appleton, Wisconsin in fast flowing rivers (Union of Concerned
Scientists, n.d.). Nuclear energy became the new hype after World War II (Union of Concerned
Scientists, n.d.). “The first nuclear commercial plant, Dresden 1…was started in 1960 (World
Nuclear Association, 2015). More recent technology pushes involve the use of renewable sources
of energy such as wind, solar energy, tides, and geothermal energy (Overview of Alternative and
Renewable Energy Sources, n.d.). Because of socio-cultural aspects, the public has made it clear
that they do not want to rely on fossil fuel processes for energy production forever, “emissions
from these fossil fuels were doing enormous harm to the Earth’s atmosphere….attention began to
turn once again to sources of…modern renewable energy technology” (Evans, 2011). Sources of
renewable energy use to cost high initial amounts of investments such as solar panels, but
recently have started to decline due to, “reductions in non-module costs (which may include…
inverters, mounting hardware, etc.)” (Barbose, Darghouth, Weaver, & Wiser, 2013). Georgia
Tech College has a special division aimed at solar energy research. There researchers are
currently, “…working to reduce cell-processing cost without compromising efficiency to make
PV-generated electricity more competitive with other sources” (Georgia Institute Technology,
n.d.).
Other renewable energies are seeing similar reductions as the, “costs of renewable energy
technologies have declined steadily, and are projected to drop even more” (Union of Concerned
Scientists, n.d.). A lot of new technology in solar panels has created a reduction in the initial cost
of producing solar energy. Wind energy is another renewable energy source that is seeing new
advanced technology. New technologies are allowing wind turbines to be used in low wind areas
to increase efficiency per turbine and lower costs. (Renewable Energy for America, n.d.). Graph
3.3 on the next page shows how renewable energy production in the United States stayed the
same for several years. Not until the last couple of years due to technology breakthroughs that
have decreased the prices of production has the US seen increased renewable energy production.
Source (Net generation for all sectors, annual, n.d.)
Graph . Electricity Generation from Source
Not only have technolog es n the product on of electr c ty changed the demand for d fferent
forms of product on but so have the technolog es that consume the electr c ty. The use of
electr c ty when t was becom ng w dely ava lable was not mon tored as, “the eff c ent use of
energy was s mply not a concern” (Un on of Concerned Sc ent sts, n.d.). Not unt l the O l
Embargo of 1973-1974 d d the US beg n to real ze how mportant t was to focus on energy
conservat on (M lestones: 1969-1976, 2013). In 1992, the EPA ntroduced the ENERGY STAR
volunteer program that cert f ed product manufactures’ dev ces that ach eved a h gh standard of
electr c ty eff c ency (H story, 2002). The program changes t standards and requ rements to f t
w th mprov ng standards (Pol cy Changes and Clar f cat ons, n.d.). Because of such programs,
consumers want products that have the Energy Star cert f cat on. Therefore compan es must
cont nually rev se and mprove the technology n the r products to obta n the Energy Star
certification. One topic of efficiency was the refrigerator as it uses a lot of energy to keep cool. A
recent technology breakthrough from, “GE estimates this system could improve a standard
refrigerator’s energy efficiency by about 20%...” (Bouza & Phelan, 2014). Take a 20 percent
increase in energy efficiency per refrigerator and multiple that by every refrigerator in the US;
the increased efficiency possibilities are massive.
Another key area of technology break-through is the light bulb. One of the pioneering people of
the light bulb was Thomas Edison (Matulka & Wood, 2013). Matulka and Wood also stated that
original lights only harnessed 10 percent of the energy used to create light. Throughout the years
following, energy shortages and oil crisis sparked the need for more efficient lights. Such as the
fluorescent lights and lamps in the 19th century. The oil crisis of 1973 not only sparked the
creation of the Star Program, but also a more efficient light, the CFL (Matulka & Wood, 2013).
Original designs were bulky and expensive and not until technology improved did CFL lights
become feasible for Americans (Matulka & Wood, 2013). The most recent breakthrough is the
LED light. It is important to note that light efficiency is rated on a scale called the luminous
efficacy (lm/W) with the higher number the light achieves, the more efficient it is. Incandescent
and halogen lights only have an lm/W of 15-20 with CFLs at 73 while LEDs have an lm/W of 78
to 131 (LED Basics, 2010). The original problem with LEDs was the high cost associated with
purchasing. Yet recent technology improvements are driving down the prices and improving the
reliability of LEDs (Comstock & Jarzomski, 2014). Graph 3.4 on the following page shows on
the left the eff cacy of l ghts wh le the graph on the r ght shows the costs of l ghts. From the
graphs, t s easy to see that the technology beh nd CFLs and ncandescent/halogen l ghten ng
Graph .4 Lighting Efficacy & Bulb Cost
Source (Comstock & Jarzomski, 2014)
has not changed wh le LEDs have seen major eff cacy mprovements. These technology
mprovements have followed over to the decreased pr ce n LEDs.
The energy ndustry s faced w th a lot of changes n the technology segment. Trad t onal forms
of energy product on have stayed relat vely the same. New forms of renewable energy are
becom ng more advanced and feas ble and thus compet ng w th the costs of trad t onal forms of
energy. New breakthroughs n appl ances have ncreased eff c ency and the lowered energy use.
L ghten ng technology has changed drast cally and has produced the LED l ghts that are the,
“most eff c ent l ghts on the market” (Matulka & Wood, 2013). It s mportant for energy
compan es to note that energy eff c ency breakthrough w ll most l kely cont nue thus reduc ng
energy demands. A government market trend showed that, “the ntens ty of res dent al demand,
def ned as annual energy per household, decl nes by 16% between 2012 and 2040” (Market
Trends: Res dent al energy demand, 2014).
Global Segment
Globalization is an unstoppable phenomenon that is usually viewed as a great impact on the
world. The relationship between globalization and energy demand is an undeniable feature. Even
though intensity of residential demand in the United States is supposed to decline, the outlook for
overall, global demand of energy is increasing. The World Nuclear Association is estimating that
the global demand for electricity will increase greatly over the next 20 years by more than two-
thirds from 2011 to 2035 (World Nuclear Association, 2015). Coal is going to be used mostly to
support these future trends as, “Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue
marching higher” (Global Coal Demand to Reach 9 Billion Tonnes per Year by 2019, 2014).
Most of the demand increases is due to emerging economies that have seen large amounts of
offshoring such as China and India. These countries increased use of coal is due to it being the
cheapest and easiest form of energy production to meet the growing demands. “The boost in coal
use is due to extreme growth in emerging markets like China and India, countries that require
cheap fuel sources for electricity production in order to support their quickly growing
infrastructures and populations (CER News Desk, 2012). Graph 3.5 on the following page shows
historical and future predictions of world electricity consumptions. As numerous studies have
shown, Asian countries are showing the largest increase in demand for electricity. These
increased spikes in demand in international countries have led to a decrease in US exports of coal
due to increased supply from suppliers overseas (Johnson & Raghuveer, 2014). These decreases
of coal exports can be detrimental because, “Coal exports are an increasingly important source of
revenue for U.S. coal producers, railroads, and barge companies” (McManmon & Ford, 2014).
These increased uses of coal also increase the amount of pollution as coal energy production
accounts for the majority of pollution.
Graph .5 World Electricity Consumption
Source (Office of Chief Economist, 2009)
Globalization is profoundly a great phenomenon around the world as trade markets can be
expanded and utilized. “Since 1950, world trade has grown more than twenty-seven fold in
volume terms” (World Trade Organization, n.d.). Yet, global impacts on the US electricity
industry can be unstable due to globalization. The increased demand of electricity globally,
especially the demand for coal, can alter prices and demand for coal domestically. Most factors
of change rely on China as they are the largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for
49% of global coal consumption (Ayoub, 2014). Future trends might change globally as more
countries join the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2006).
The purpose of OECD is to promote and solve issues such as the high uses of coal and pollution
in China (OECD, 2006).
Summary
Overall, all six segments are a major influence on the electricity industry. Now that the key
drivers have been discussed in detail, the relationship between the segments can be seen. There is
a major link between the socio-cultural, political/legal, and technological segments. As discussed
in the socio-cultural segment above, people’s values and opinions change over time. As these
change, so does the legal and political actions of the government in the United States. New laws
or regulations push for more efficient standards and products that push the technological segment
to develop new technologies. The government also funds these research projects and
developments. A technology segment can also affect a global segment as a technology
breakthrough can change the way electricity is produced or used (such as affordable renewable
energy production). Therefore it is important to realize the separate segments, but also how they
can relate and affect other segments.
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