Homework 2
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 5
Calamari Printer Product Description: The Calamari is a tiny, self-propelled, single-color printer intended for printing anywhere. Using an infrared interface compatible with standard lap-tops, PDA’s, or other computers, the Calamari will print on any size rectangular paper (or other suitable medium) sitting on a flat, smooth, level surface. The Calamari will take five to ten seconds to initialize by determining the positions of all four corners. A 300 dot per inch print of text and graphics on letter (or A4) paper will take under one minute to complete. A set of four AA-size batteries will power the Calamari for at least one hour of printing, and the device, including batteries, will weigh 500 grams (~ ½ lb.) or less. Project Objective: Develop Calamari and release the product in eight months (by September 30, 20xx) with 12 full-time contributors. Priorities: Least flexible (Constrain) Schedule Moderately flexible (Optimize) Scope Most flexible (Accept) Resources Roles:
• Research and Development (R&D): Develop the product and create a working prototype.
• Learning Products (LP): Complete training, support and reference materials.
• Marketing (Mrk): Assess market situation and user needs, recommend solution, launch product.
• Manufacturing (Mfg): Set up for and produce the product in quantity.
• Finance (Fin): Provide financial analysis of costs, pricing, projected profit. Using the "PERT" chart supplied and the information below, fill in pessimistic estimates and, if you wish, optimistic estimates for the project tasks. The estimates already entered in the Gantt and PERT charts are "most likely". 1. The tasks assigned to Finance are all things they have done before and their
estimates are usually accurate to within a day. 2. There is a lot of data supporting the tasks of printing documents and preparing
marketing materials. These estimates are considered very accurate. 3. R&D is well-staffed with experienced people. You are confident of all the
Development task estimates, plus or minus 5%, except for electronic design. This project requires known software and controls, with which the team is very familiar, but miniaturization of the hardware is a new challenge. This work may take as much as an extra couple of weeks beyond the estimate given.
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 6
4. Learning Products people are currently very busy completing work for the
“TVDinner” product, which is currently the highest priority project. Their estimates assume no higher priority work will conflict with Calamari. Even so, the tasks assigned to them are very unlikely to be completed more than a day early, and this group has a number of very inexperienced people. Slipping Development Phase LP estimates by as much as a third is likely, but Investigation Phase estimates seem fine.
5. Marketing has already started the needed research and has made a firm
commitment to completing all market research and other Investigation-phase tasks on time. Market research may be completed a week early.
6. All functional areas understand how important the review of LP output is to the
success of Calamari, and although no one has promised to take less time than the estimate, everyone believes the time for this will be sufficient.
7. Manufacturing reports that they expect to have no difficulty in moving Calamari
into production. Several engineers from a division experienced in similar production are assigned to work on Calamari. The only estimate that they are not too confident of is the time for ordering parts, as new suppliers will be used for the infrared interface hardware. They think this task might take as much as an additional three weeks. All the other estimates for the project seem accurate within a day or so.
8. The mini digital stepping motor research is the only task assigned to R&D in the
Investigation phase that seems risky. This may require an extra week, but the other estimates are good.
9. Marketing expects several other projects to start up during the Development
phase of Calamari. They report that their tasks of writing the marketing plan and product launch will not be finished earlier than estimated and both of these tasks may take up to two extra weeks due to higher priority conflicts.
Given this information, identify the tasks off the critical path that are most likely to cause project slippage. Consider any sequences of tasks that could cause the Manufacturing Release (MR) milestone to slip. Document the risky tasks, and determine a worst case Calamari schedule. Provide a one page discussion on your findings.
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 7
Calamari Project Left side (some assembly required)
10
40
20 5
20
65
50
5
15 25
40
10
35
51
30
524
15
30
10
Start
17. Write
Software 23. Assemble
Prototype
13. Finalize
Specifications
8. Do High-Level
Design 4. Investigate
Feasibility
14.
Business
Decision
3. Hold Kick-off
Meeting
6. Get Get Infrared
Specs. From Austin
7. Locate Mini
Digital Stepping
Motor
16. Do Electronic
Design
18. Complete
Mechanical Design
9. Do Design for
Manufacturability
Requirements
10. Define User
Interface
Requirements
5. Do Market
Research
11. Recommend
Solution and
Selling Price
12. Forecast
Demand
19. Write
Marketing Plan
24. Prepare
Marketing
Materials
20. Write
Documentation
21. Develop
Training
25. Review and
Approve Docs,
Training, Support
22. Write
Support Plan
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 8
Calamari Project Right side (some assembly required)
10
10
30
25
10
30
28. Launch
Product
30
20 20
10
10
105
5
39.
Manuf.
Release
41. End
33. Finalize
Design
Documents
35. Prepare
for Pilot
Production
36. Produce and
Test Pilot Run
37. Fix Problems,
Set Up for
Manufacturing
38. Ramp-up30. Fix
Defects 26. Test
Prototype
34. Order
Parts
27. Estimate
Manufacturing
Cost
40. Close
Project; Do
Retrospective
31. Do Financial
Analysis
29. Finalize Docs,
Training and
Support
32. Print
Documents
(Predecessor
Task 25)
(Predecessor
Task 24)
(Predecessor
Task 24)
(Predecessor
Task 23)
(Predecessor
Task 23)
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 9
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 10
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 11
© 2015 Tom Kendrick Project Risk Management Page 12
Calamari Project
Research and
Develop
Calamari
Market
Calamari
Create Calamari
Learning Products
Manufacture
Calamari
31. Do Financial
Analysis for
Calamari
5
28. Launch
Product
30
28. Launch
Product
3010
33. Finalize
Design
Documents
10
33. Finalize
Design
Documents
30
35. Prepare
for Pilot
Production
30
35. Prepare
for Pilot
Production
10
36. Produce and
Test Pilot Run
10
36. Produce and
Test Pilot Run
20
37. Fix Problems,
Set Up for
Manufacturing
20
37. Fix Problems,
Set Up for
Manufacturing
20
38. Ramp-up
20
38. Ramp-up
10
30. Fix
Defects
10
30. Fix
Defects
5
26. Test
Prototype
5
26. Test
Prototype
10
34. Order
Parts
10
34. Order
Parts
10
27. Estimate
Manufacturing
Cost
10
27. Estimate
Manufacturing
Cost
10
40. Close
Project; Do
Retrospective
10
40. Close
Project; Do
Retrospective
25
29. Finalize Docs,
Training and
Support
25
29. Finalize Docs,
Training and
Support
30
32. Print
Documents
30
32. Print
Documents
40
17. Write
Software
40
17. Write
Software
5
23. Assemble
Prototype
5
23. Assemble
Prototype
5
13. Finalize
Specifications
5
13. Finalize
Specifications
24
8. Do High-Level
Design
24
8. Do High-Level
Design
30
4. Investigate
Feasibility
30
4. Investigate
Feasibility
1
3. Hold Kick-off
Meeting
1
3. Hold Kick-off
Meeting
10
6. Get Get Infrared
Specs. From Austin
10
6. Get Get Infrared
Specs. From Austin
15
7. Locate Mini
Digital Stepping
Motor
15
7. Locate Mini
Digital Stepping
Motor
30
16. Do Electronic
Design
30
16. Do Electronic
Design
35
18. Complete
Mechanical Design
35
18. Complete
Mechanical Design
10
9. Do Design for
Manufacturability
Requirements
10
9. Do Design for
Manufacturability
Requirements
20
10. Define User
Interface
Requirements
20
10. Define User
Interface
Requirements
20
5. Do Market
Research
20
5. Do Market
Research
5
11. Recommend
Solution and
Selling Price
5
11. Recommend
Solution and
Selling Price
5
12. Forecast
Demand
5
12. Forecast
Demand
15
19. Write
Marketing Plan
15
19. Write
Marketing Plan
25
24. Prepare
Marketing
Materials
25
24. Prepare
Marketing
Materials
65
20. Write
Documentation
65
20. Write
Documentation
50
21. Develop
Training
50
21. Develop
Training
10
25. Review and
Approve Docs,
Training, Support
10
25. Review and
Approve Docs,
Training, Support
40
22. Write
Support Plan
40
22. Write
Support Plan