Assignment 3: Policy Outcomes

Assignment 3: Policy Outcomes Due Week 7 and worth 225 points

Write four to six (4-6) page paper in which you:

(Note: Refer to Chapter 6 Review Question 4 for criterion 1.)

1. Construct constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the shaded box under Review Question 3 at the end of Chapter 6. (Note: The box includes Program expenditur, Equality of educational opportunity, Energy consumption, etc.)

· Listed below are several policy problems. For five of these problems, provide an indicator or index that would help determine whether these problems are being resolved through government action.

Work alienation	School dropouts
Crime	Poverty
Energy crisis	Fiscal crisis
Inflation	Illegal immigration

(Note: Refer to Chapter 6 Review Question 5 for criterion 2.)

2. Identify three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 4 and determine an appropriate indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through government action. Justify for position on each. (Note: The box includes Work alienation, School dropouts, Poverty, etc.)

(Note: Refer to Chapter 6 Review Question 13 for criterion 3.)

3. Construct valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four (4) threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit (National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.

4. Appropriately incorporate at least four (4) quality sources. A quality source can be either grey literature, such as a news article, or scholarly, such as peer reviewed works. In the case of public administration, government websites are appropriate quality resources. Note: Wikipedia, SparkNotes, and similar websites do not qualify as academic resources. Visit the Strayer University Library at http://research.strayer.edu to conduct research.

Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:

. Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.

. Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.

Points: 225	Assignment 3: Policy Outcomes
Criteria	Unacceptable Below 70% F	Fair 70-79% C	Proficient 80-89% B	Exemplary 90-100% A
1. Construct constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the shaded box under Review Question 1 at the end of Chapter 6. Weight: 25%	Did not submit or incompletely constructed constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the shaded box under Review Question 1 at the end of Chapter 6.	Partially constructed constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the shaded box under Review Question 1 at the end of Chapter 6.	Satisfactorily constructed constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the shaded box under Review Question 1 at the end of Chapter 6.	Thoroughly constructed constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the shaded box under Review Question 1 at the end of Chapter 6.
2. Identify three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 5 and determine an appropriate indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through government action. Justify your position on each. Weight: 30%	Did not submit or incompletely identified three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 5 and did not submit or incompletely determined an appropriate indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through government action. Did not submit or incompletely justified your position on each.	Partially identified three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 5 and partially determined an appropriate indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through government action. Partially justified your position on each.	Satisfactorily identified three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 5 and satisfactorily determined an appropriate indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through government action. Satisfactorily justified your position on each.	Thoroughly identified three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 5 and thoroughly determined an appropriate indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through government action. Thoroughly justified your position on each.
3. Construct valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit (National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives. Weight: 30%	Did not submit or incompletely constructed valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit (National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.	Partially constructed valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit (National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.	Satisfactorily constructed valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit (National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.	Thoroughly constructed valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit (National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.
4. 2 references Weight: 5%	Does not meet the required number of references	Meets the required number of references; some or all references poor quality choices.	Meets number of required references; most references quality choices.	Exceeds number of required references; all references high quality choices.
5. Clarity, writing mechanics, and formatting requirements Weight: 10%	More than 6 errors present	5-6 errors present	3-4 errors present	0-2 errors present

Review Questions How is monitoring related to forecasting? What is the relationship between ill-structured problems and approaches to monitoring? Construct constitutive and operational definitions for any five of the following variables: Program expenditure Equality of educational opportunity Personnel turnover National security Health services Work incentives Quality of life Pollution Satisfaction with municipal services Energy consumption Income distribution Rapport with clients Listed below are several policy problems. For five of these problems, provide an indicator or index that would help determine whether these problems are being resolved through government action. Work alienation School dropouts Crime Poverty Energy crisis Fiscal crisis Inflation Illegal immigration The following table reports the number of criminal offenses known to the police per 100,000 persons. Known offenses are broken down into two categories—total crimes against person and total crimes against property— over the period 1965–1989. Construct two curved-line graphs that display trends in crime rates over the period. Label the two graphs appropriately. What do these graphs suggest about policy outcomes? Table 6.22 Crimes Committed in the United States: Offenses Known to Police per 100,000 Persons, 1985–2009 Mayor Rudy Giuliani often claims credit for the reduction of violent crimes during the period in which he was Mayor of New York City (1994–2001). After examining your graph for violent crimes in the United States, construct an interrupted time-series graph for New York City that shows the start and end of Giuliani’s term in office. To what extent is New York City’s drop in murders similar to the drop in violent crime in the country as a whole (Question 5)? Why? Does Giuliani deserve credit? Table 6.23 Murders in New York City, 1985–2009 In the following table are data on the percentage distribution of family income by quintiles in 1975 and 1989. Use these data to construct two Lorenz curves that depict changes in the distribution of income between 1975 and 1989. Label the two curves and the two axes. Table 6.24 Percentage Distribution of Family Personal Income in the United States by Quintiles, 1975, 1989, 2006, 2015 Quintiles 1975 1989 2006 2015 Highest 41.0 46.7 52.1 51.1 Second 24.0 24.0 20.3 23.2 Third 17.6 15.9 14.3 14.3 Fourth 12.0 9.6 9.5 8.2 Lowest 5.4 3.8 4.7 3.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-60. Calculate the Gini concentration ratio for 1975 and 2015 data in review question 7. What do the Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients suggest about poverty as a policy problem? If poverty and other problems are “artificial” and “subjective,” how valid is the information displayed by the Lorenz curves? Why? Year Average Monthly Benefit Consumer Price Index (1982–1984 = 100) 1970 $183.13 38.8 1975 $219.44 53.8 1980 $280.03 82.4 1985 $342.15 107.6  1988 $374.07 118.3  Policy issue: Should average monthly benefits paid to mothers under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program be increased?Prepare a policy memo that answers this question. Before writing the memo: Prepare a purchasing power index for all years in the series, using 1970 as the base year. Convert the average monthly benefits into real benefits for these years. Repeat the same procedures, using 1980 as the base year. Imagine that you are examining the effects of ten scholarship awards on the subsequent performance of disadvantaged youths in college. There are fewer awards than applicants, and awards must be based on merit. Therefore, it is not possible to provide all disadvantaged students with awards, nor is it politically feasible to select students randomly because this conflicts with the principle of merit. You decide to allocate the ten awards according to the following rules: No student will receive an award without scoring at least 86 on the examination; five awards will be given automatically to the top students in the 92–100 interval; and the remaining five awards will be given to a random sample of students in the 86–91 interval. One year later, you obtain information on the grade point averages of the ten award students and ten other disadvantaged students who did not receive an award. You have college entrance examination scores for all twenty students. Does the provision of scholarship awards to disadvantaged students improve subsequent achievement in college? Award Group Nonaward Group Examination Scores Grade Point Average Examination Scores Grade Point Average 99 3.5 88 3.2 97 3.9 89 3.2 94 3.4 90 3.3 92 3.0 86 3.0 92 3.3 91 3.5 86 3.1 85 3.1 90 3.3 81 3.0 89 3.2 79 2.8 88 3.2 84 3.0 91 3.4 80 2.6 Construct a regression-discontinuity graph that displays examination scores and grade point averages for the award and non-award groups. Use Xs and Os to display data points for the experimental (X) and control (O) groups. Construct a worksheet and compute for each group the values of a and b in the equation Yc = a + b(X). For each group, write the regression equation that describes the relation between merit (examination scores) and subsequent achievement (grade point averages). Compute the standard error of estimate at the 95 percent estimation interval (i.e., two standard errors) for each group. Compute r2 and r. Interpret information contained in (a) through (e) and answer the question: Does the provision of scholarship awards to disadvantaged students improve subsequent achievement in college? Justify your answer. Subtract 0.5 from each student’s grade point average in the nonaward (control) group. Does the Y intercept change for the control group? Why? Does the slope of the regression line change for the control group? Why? Does the standard error of estimate change for the control group? Why? Do r2 and r change for the control group? Why? What do your answers show about the appropriateness of correlation and regression analysis for problems where pretest and posttest scores are highly correlated? What, then, are the special advantages of regression-discontinuity analysis? Using at least four threats to validity, construct rebuttals to the following argument: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55 mph speed limit. (C) The 55 mph speed limit (National Maximum Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives. Study Figure 6.12 before you begin.