online paper

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Research Assignment 1 The first week you will submit an outline based on the instructions. The following week you will do

this assignment, submitting a paper and an R script file. Look at the examples in the Documenting

Research Guide before reading through these instructions. Ask questions, if needed!

Problem

The data consolidated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is used to

determine the most vulnerable areas should a disaster occur. In a perfect world, vulnerability

indicators would represent the people correctly. Currently, this far-from-perfect method is the best

that has been developed. There may be indicators that are not adequately predictive of social

vulnerability. Understanding the influence of these attributes can improve the assessment,

improving the ability to predict the impact of disasters on individual communities.

Question 1

What relationships exist in the states of Idaho, New Hampshire, and North Dakota between

the socioeconomic fields, household composition and disability fields, and the estimated number of

minorities, the estimated number of homes with no vehicle, and the tract population, and the social

vulnerability index when using the data consolidated by the CDC (n.d.)?

Question 2

What indicators in the states of Idaho, New Hampshire, and North Dakota between the

socioeconomic fields, household composition and disability fields, and the estimated number of

minorities, the estimated number of homes with no vehicle, and tract population have the most

influence in predicting social vulnerability when using the data consolidated by the CDC (n.d.)?

Data

• The secondary data reference is below, formatted per APA 7. Update the retrieval date to the date

you retrieved it:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.). CDC social vulnerability index 2018 US [Data set and

code book]. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. Geospatial Research, Analysis, and

Services Program. Retrieved January 4, 2021, from

https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/data_documentation_download.html

• The data directly:

https://svi.cdc.gov/Documents/Data/2018_SVI_Data/CSV/SVI2018_US.csv

• The data dictionary or code book directly:

https://svi.cdc.gov/Documents/Data/2018_SVI_Data/SVI2018Documentation.pdf

Collecting data

• Create a subset of the data to represent the secondary data sample for this analysis.

• Don’t include observations with a total population of zero in your analysis. Think about it; if there’s

no population, how can risk to the community be assigned?

• There are 13 variables used in this analysis. When you write about the secondary data sample,

you only need to discuss the data you used. If observations (rows of data) were excluded, that

needs to be discussed. Cite and reference sources that you use to identify variable content.

• Do not use more than one field for each variable. Other than the field that represents the SVI, all

of your variables are prefixed with E_. For example, there are multiple fields with “PCI” for per

capita income, but only one E_PCI.

• Don’t copy and paste the following data sample information into your outline. It’s insufficient.

• How do you know what data to use? It’s in the research question.

Do not

modify the

data outside

of R.

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o socioeconomic fields

▪ estimated quantities of:

o people living below the poverty level

o people unemployed

o people without a high school diploma

▪ tract average per capita income

o household composition and disability fields, also estimated

quantities of:

▪ people age 65 and over

▪ people age 17 and under

▪ disabled

▪ single-parent homes with children under 18

o estimated number of minorities

o estimated number of homes with no vehicle

o estimated tract population

o the SVI index is RPL_THEMES, in column 99

o the state

Data cleaning

• It is unlikely that any action taken in cleaning is documented in your research paper. If these steps

were documented in a paper, they would be a part of the procedures section. I don’t require you to

write the procedures section because you submit an R file.

• When changing an object or part of an object, validate every change, and comment in your code.

• There is a code representing missing values; use the data dictionary to learn more! Reassign the

values as NA, if any observations in your sample data include this code.

Analysis

• Conduct two types of analysis: visual analysis to identify relationships and a random forest model

to identify the indicators’ influence in predicting the SVI.

• Connect the relationships and influence measures aforementioned to the research questions when

you document your Analysis Methods and Limitations section.

When writing your paper

Results section and the discussion section

• During the visual analysis, only present meaningful visuals in your paper. Provide your

interpretations of any results you present.

• Ensure you establish that the model is valid and reliable in your documentation before discussing

the influence the different fields have on predicting the outcome.

Using the first research question, the variables are in red:

What relationships exist in the states of

New Hampshire, North Dakota, and South Dakota between the

socioeconomic fields, household composition and disability fields, and

the estimated number of minorities, the estimated number of homes with no vehicle,

and the

tract population, and the social vulnerability index

when using the data consolidated by the CDC (n.d.)?

Use the data dictionary to uncover which variables in the data align with these variables. Look at the example information from the data dictionary in the two

partial images to the right.

Modified from CDC (n.d., p. 5)

Modified from CDC (n.d., p. 6)

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• Do not speculate. Use evidence. When documenting the results, consider the generalizability.

• Your interpretations of your results are crucial to demonstrating your understanding.

Future recommendations section

• Include recommendations for future analysis, based on your research in R.

• An example future research recommendation may look something like this:

An opportunity for future research is exploration modeling to determine what other

variables, when eliminated, have little or no impact when predicting the SVI based on the

supporting characteristics in the data.

Extra credit challenge

Create a random forest model for each state that is assigned. You will need to write a research question

that aligns with the problem statement, providing your objective of these state-level models. What is it

that you are looking for? The objective can be the same as the second research question in these

instructions or one you develop independently. Use the criteria found in Unit 1 Part 1 to make sure your

research question is sound. Want to try the challenge, but need help? Please email me.

Required files to submit for this assignment

• The week you initially receive these instructions, the objective is to complete an outline. Use these

instructions, the data, the data dictionary, and the Documenting Research Guide to complete the

outline.

o Submit as an MS Word document file type

▪ The formatting is not crucial.

▪ HINT Most of the outline is copied from the instructions. Focus on what you write.

▪ Don’t forget to cite and reference any sources you use to complete the outline.

• The second week you receive these instructions, you will complete this assignment and submit:

o Submit as an MS Word document file type

▪ Adhere to the standards of APA 7

▪ Use the Student Paper Template in the Useful Documents folder in Blackboard; it’s

preformatted per APA 7.

▪ Length 3-5 pages and at least 1000 words in the body of the document; count

excludes the cover page, tables, or figures, or the reference page.

o R Script; the final version in a .R file type

• See the Documenting Research Guide for more details on what is required.

• Questions? Please email me. Stuck on the programming or paper? Please email me.

Important Information

• You will receive an error notification when you submit because of the .R file type. Check your

email for the submission confirmation email automatically sent from Blackboard.

• Ensure that every reference in the reference list is also cited in the text.

• Do not forget to cite and reference the source of the data.

• Use the problem statement and research questions verbatim as in these instructions.

• If your submission adheres to a version of this assignment not available to you in Blackboard, you

will earn a zero and be documented as demonstrating academic dishonesty.

• This is an individual assignment. Do not share your work and don’t accept others’ work.

• Take a look at the rubric to get the best possible grade.

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References

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.). CDC social vulnerability index 2018 US

[Data set and code book]. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. Geospatial

Research, Analysis, and Services Program. Retrieved January 4, 2021, from

https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/data_documentation_download.html

Flanagan, B. E., Gregory, E. W., Hallisey, E. J., Heitgerd, J. L., and Lewis, B. (2011). A social

vulnerability index for disaster management. Journal of Homeland Security and

Emergency Management, 8(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1792