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Econ 6110
Time-Series/Forecasting Assignment
Data For Time-Series (20 points)
Following is money supply, interest rate and federal deficit data from 2001-2016 in country X, forecast the numbers (all the variables) for the next 10 periods. Be sure to show all work including the identification of the Lag length.
M2 = seasonally adjusted quarterly M2 monetary aggregate in billions of current dollars (average of monthly data)
Interest = 1-year Treasury constant maturity rate (measured as percent, average of monthly data)
Deficit = seasonally adjusted quarterly federal deficit (in billions of current dollars)
|
m2 |
interest |
deficit |
|
287.802 |
3.50 |
-3.7 |
|
292.122 |
3.92 |
-4.9 |
|
296.124 |
4.60 |
-2.5 |
|
297.140 |
4.92 |
-1.8 |
|
298.664 |
4.57 |
-11.6 |
|
301.110 |
3.87 |
-8.1 |
|
306.484 |
3.07 |
-6.5 |
|
310.924 |
2.99 |
-2.1 |
|
316.295 |
2.87 |
-2.4 |
|
322.138 |
2.94 |
-0.6 |
|
327.569 |
3.01 |
-2.4 |
|
333.329 |
3.10 |
-4.5 |
|
340.241 |
3.21 |
-2.3 |
|
347.409 |
3.02 |
-2.0 |
|
352.845 |
3.18 |
-3.0 |
|
359.901 |
3.00 |
-2.2 |
|
367.918 |
3.03 |
-4.0 |
|
375.919 |
3.14 |
-6.2 |
|
383.571 |
3.53 |
-5.7 |
|
391.026 |
3.73 |
-5.0 |
|
397.532 |
3.83 |
-1.9 |
|
404.338 |
3.86 |
2.7 |
|
413.473 |
3.77 |
-1.1 |
|
421.959 |
3.93 |
-3.1 |
|
430.386 |
4.01 |
-7.4 |
|
437.563 |
4.02 |
-6.6 |
|
446.037 |
4.08 |
0.6 |
|
455.813 |
4.46 |
0.7 |
|
464.607 |
4.93 |
-5.3 |
|
470.166 |
4.93 |
-4.3 |
|
472.950 |
5.51 |
-1.6 |
|
477.726 |
5.44 |
0.3 |
|
485.466 |
4.60 |
8.8 |
|
497.095 |
4.25 |
9.3 |
|
510.592 |
5.13 |
7.5 |
|
521.369 |
5.56 |
7.7 |
|
530.326 |
5.47 |
4.8 |
|
539.088 |
5.94 |
6.5 |
|
549.521 |
5.51 |
-2.4 |
|
562.290 |
5.84 |
-3.7 |
|
571.849 |
6.36 |
-14.9 |
|
576.897 |
6.57 |
-12.3 |
|
580.531 |
7.65 |
-6.7 |
|
585.574 |
7.90 |
-4.5 |
|
587.670 |
7.55 |
1.8 |
|
591.654 |
7.45 |
14.7 |
|
605.228 |
6.94 |
18.5 |
|
621.305 |
5.65 |
22.4 |
|
641.181 |
4.05 |
21.6 |
|
666.030 |
4.99 |
28.4 |
|
686.097 |
5.75 |
28.6 |
|
704.348 |
4.73 |
28.6 |
|
725.514 |
4.41 |
19.2 |
|
743.782 |
4.84 |
26.0 |
|
769.114 |
5.15 |
14.4 |
|
794.300 |
5.44 |
30.4 |
|
813.106 |
6.31 |
14.6 |
|
826.547 |
7.02 |
13.9 |
|
838.507 |
8.51 |
9.5 |
|
848.917 |
7.41 |
6.9 |
|
932.1023 941.1050 930.6070 1020.9005 1058.1029 1120.4500 1034.8600 940.1020 900.1000 870.1200 |
7.60 7.31 6.90 6.75 7.0 7.50 8.005 6.75 6.45 6.00 |
10.12 11.12 10.89 12.40 12.75 12.98 11.40 9.005 8.30 7.75 |