Final Project - Risk Modeling and Assessment

Description

The objective of the class project is to apply the concepts learned in class using a real case scenario. The objective is to analyze a risk using a Monte Carlo simulation or a Bayesian model. Unlike assigned problems, real world problems rarely provide the facts and the data needed to model the problem conditions. As part of presenting a solution for this project you will have to identify, create or propose the facts and data needed to develop your model. You must use a software tool to develop your model.

Risk conditions can be identified in every day events. For this project, the objective is to identify and analyze a risk from a current news event (gun regulation, Russian bots, Mueller investigation, any relevant world event).

The project will consist of 3 separate deliverables and each deliverable will be graded using the criteria described below:

1. Selection of a topic: Whitepaper (2-3pages) Make sure you include all the sections listed below

· (20 points) Describe in detail the news event

Provide the background information needed to understand your project. Explain why this topic is important and the impact of understanding the risks associated with the topic.

· (20 points) Using the concepts discussed in class, identify potential risks associated with the event.

An event can potentially have multiple risks associated with it; please focus on closely related events if there is more than one. Identify who is affected by the risks identified and how the model can reduce the risk by reducing the uncertainties associated with the risks by supporting a decision-making process. You only need to analyze one risk condition.

· (20 points) List the risks using the format presented in class (identify risk event, mitigation, etc)

The risks identified in this section must be discussed as part of the model findings. Also, the analysis section of the paper should be based on the risks identified in this section.

· (20 points) Identify the variables that define this risk scenario

Identify all the variables that you consider relevant in order to analyze the risks identified.

· (20 points) Identify potential data sources that could be used to develop your model. In the absence of data sources you can generate the data using reasonable and supported assumptions.

· List the variables to be used and explain why those variables were selected by explaining how they relate to the risks.

· Draw an influence diagram showing how the variables identified related to the risks identified.

2. Analysis (Paper - MLAformat) (you must also upload your model file) Write a report including the following sections (list the sections in your report)

· (20 points) Introduction: A brief description of the event and your objectives

· (20 points) List the variables used for the model and describe how the values were determined (the model should have at least 10 variables)

· (20 points) Describe the process used to develop the model (simulation or Bayesian)

Explain in detail the modeling tool selected and why it is a good option for the type of risks modeled

· (20 points) Describe your findings

Describe the behaviors and trends of your model and how they relate with the risks studied.

· (20 points) Analyze your findings and answer your research questions (using the tools discussed in class)

Explain how the model’s output’s address the uncertainties associated with the risks identified. Make sure to address the research questions and explain how the model supports the decisions associated with the risks.

3. Final presentation Present your findings (maximum 8 slides)

· Event description

· Questions / Risks

· Variables / Data

· Model

· Findings

· Analysis

Resources

Netica Reference