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Following Leippold and Matthys (2015) one can model the linkage between economic policy uncertainty and bond yield variance, as well as the determinants that form its hump-shape pattern, by estimating the following equation:
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(1) |
Where is the time series of the realized volatility of bonds across different maturities, which is derived from the following formula:
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(2) |
Where D stands for the number of daily observations with ranging from 1 to about 20 business days each month. represents bond maturities, taking values from 1 to 30 years.
Reference
Leippold, M. and F. H. Matthys (2015). Economic policy uncertainty and the yield curve, unpublished, Swiss Finance Institute.