logbook 3
Information Analysis
Week 7
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
Welcome back!
Still not too late for CI certificate
Team project consultations
Individual project topics
Questions
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
So far we have seen
KITs, KIQs, Indicators
Options
Support to strategic decision-making
Plan and execute your search
The environment
The people
Data collection
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Référence: Rowley, Jennifer (2007). "The wisdom hierarchy: representations of the DIKW hierarchy". Journal of Information and Communication Science. 33 (2): 163–180
For the Web and for the info on people
6
Analysis is achieved through
Deduction – by reasoning and inference from the general to the particular
Induction – by inference of a general conclusion from the particular
Abduction – inference of a probable conclusion from what is known
Which one do we use the most in CI?
Survey says…
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Various possibilities
We remember the example of Alibaba
Machine learning logarithm
Automatic generation of recommendations
Decision support
If your data harvest has been set up to integrate automated processing, a large part of the work is done for you
But for CI and to support strategic decisions, your role it will remain at the aggregation stage of this information to support the company's decision (for now….)
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Big Data
The possibilities are enormous
Our digital signature is huge
Phone, GPS, appointments, banks, restaurants...
But complexity requires decision support in the form of
Machine learning
Simulation using "virtual agents".
Creation and validation of "models
BI processes are mostly internal
We have mentioned the importance of using them
Value of internal information
Additional information
Integration of internal processes
e.g. SAP, Peoplesoft
This data, information, intelligence can play an important role in the analysis process and feed answers to KIQs or support intuition.
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Trends based on complexity and fractals analysis
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Recommendation
Competitive advantage
KIT
KIQ
KIQ
KIQ
KII
KII
KII
KII
Knowledge Wisdom
This is an iterative process
Analysis may be the most difficult step
To increase the value of our information chain
Signals – Data – Information – Knowledge
We need to identify or deduce trends, links to meet our initial objective.
We often have to fill empty spaces
In short, we must take signals and data that do not always appear to be related and infer the knowledge or information from them that allows us to recommend action.
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
The experienced analyst
Linking data and signals
Don't just think linearly (fox...)
Creative and innovative
Open minded
Humble
Extrapolates and expresses their reasoning
Good analysts are difficult to train, e.g. CIA
But they are often right... e.g. IBM and microcomputers
Ref: Competitive Intelligence L. Kahaner
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Ten commandments of superforecasters
Triage – biggest bang for your effort
Break up the problem
Balance inside and outside views
Balance between under and over reaction to evidence
Look for clashing causal forces
Strive to distinguism as many degrees of doubts as the problem permits
Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction. P.E. Tetlock, D. Gardner. 2015
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Ten commandments of superforecasters
(continued)
7. Balance confidence and prudence
8. Look for errors in your judgment
9. Bring out the best in others and allow them to do so
10. Balance errors
11. Don’t treat commandments as commandments…
Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction. P.E. Tetlock, D. Gardner. 2015
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Ref Twitter @CIA
What time is it based on the picture below?
And I would add
Be aware of yourself
Keep an open mind to better see and discover the links between signals and data; be a fox.
Keep your thinking biases in mind; allow your inner turtle to do its job.
Be receptive to weak signals and their role as indicators.
Surround yourself with people who see reality differently.
Use internal or external experts
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Consider the context
SWOT or PESTEL are excellent analysis framework
Consider the following perspectives in a business analysis
Directions announced (speeches, publications, mission...)
Expert forecasts of the sector
Past actions as indicators of preferential modes
Changes in the competitive environment
Do not forget to contextualize these perspectives for the company in question according to its strengths and weaknesses.
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Talking about biases…
Coca Cola Mission
Coca Cola’s mission statement is to refresh the world in mind, body, and spirit, to inspire moments of optimism and happiness through our brands and actions, and to create value and make a difference.
Bombardier
Our mission is to be the world's leading manufacturer of planes and trains. We are committed to providing superior value and service to our customers and sustained profitability to our shareholders by investing in our people and products.
What can we infer from these?
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Decision makers – an essential perspective
A predictive approach
Their past behaviour
Faced with success
Facing failure
Their main personality traits
Their environment at the moment
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
27
Profiling individuals
Ref: Marta S. Weber Profiling for Leadership Analysis
The individual
Historical biography related to KITs
A personality assessment
The individual in his or her organizational environment
The organizational environment
Culture, mission, raison d'être
Also based on KITs
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Considerations
Philosophy - management, life, relationships, ...
Strategy - preferences, comfort zone, ...
Gregarious or not? - team approach, ...
Risk - gambling, careful, ...
Innovative - conventional, avant-garde, ...
Competitive - default approach, sporty, ...
Decision making - approach, listening or not, ...
Motivations - goals, stated or unstated objectives, ...
Environment - dynamics in place, role, ...
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Profiling fundamentals
The best predictor of the future is the past.
Similarity of the situation
Repetition of successes, avoidance of failures
Pavlov and Maslow
Tendency to avoid change
Habits and ways of doing things
Most of the time people do what they say they will do.
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Some additional tools
Myers Briggs Type Indicator
energy - Introversion vs. extroversion
Information processing - Sensor vs. intuition
Decision - Analytical vs. Sentiment
Self-management - Judgment vs. perception
DiSC
Dominance, influence, steadiness and conscientiousness
TMI - Team Management Index
And many more…
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Some Analysis Techniques
Some of these techniques are dependent on and can enhance other analytical elements.
Wargaming
Delphi
Storyboarding
And obviously
Machine learning and AI
Now let’s give all this a try!
Home Security Inc.
Break out in teams and answer the questions for HSI Part 1
Teams will be picked randomly to provide their answers
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Considerations
Data volume
Security
Business Intelligence
Support an iterative process?
Data vs Knowledge
…
Information Analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Competitive Intelligence
Disinformation
Positioning
"Seeding"
Test balloons
Omissions...
Questions?
Text or email me
jturgeo2@uottawa.ca
Look for Q&A in Brightspace
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2020