urgent business tasks
Shipping in the Arctic: My Arctic your Arctic
M.K Afenyo, PhD
Introduction
News about the Arctic
What is the Arctic?
Picture courtesy: https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/images//arctic_map.gif
Regions around the north pole
Second largest area by size (13,985,000 km²)
Area above the Arctic circle (66° 34’ N)
Any area in high latitudes where average daily temperature does not rise above 10 degree
Canada in the Arctic
Second largest Arctic country
200,000 Canadians live in the Arctic
New Arctic Framework under development
comprehensive Arctic infrastructure
strong Arctic people and communities
strong, sustainable and diversified Arctic economies
Arctic science and Indigenous knowledge
protecting the environment and preserving Arctic biodiversity
the Arctic in a global context
Canada in the Arctic
Applies to
Yukon
Northwest Territories
Nunavut
Inuit Nunangat
the Nunatsiavut region in Labrador
the territory of Nunavik in Quebec
northern Manitoba, including Churchill
Arctic shipping
Taken place since 1978 in the ice-covered western regions of the Northern Sea Route (between the port of Dudinka on the Yenisei River and Murmansk).
“We need to save the Arctic not because of the polar bears, and not because it is the most beautiful place in the world, but because our very survival depends upon it” --Lewis Gordon Pugh
| Year | Activity |
| 4th Century B.C | Use of Arctic shipping by the indigenous people for food supplies and settlement |
| 981 | Discovery of Greenland |
| 1490 | John Cabot makes a voyage through the NWP |
| 1610 | Hudson expedition by the Henry |
| 1903 | Roald Amundsen completes the NWP route |
| 1935 | NSR opens up for Russia traffic |
| 1994 | UN convention on the Law of the sea |
| 1996 | Formation of the Arctic council |
| 2010 | Russia Constructs its double hull ice-breaker |
| 2012 | Opening of the Arctic intensified |
| 2013 | China builds first ice breaker in house |
| 2017 | The polar code comes into force |
The good
Resource deposits: oil, gas and other minerals
Increase shipping saving time and money
Opening up the northern communities
Graphics courtesy: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/energy-and-mineral-riches-of-the-arctic/
The good
Nordic Orion NWP voyage from Europe to Asia instead of Panama Canal
Saved 4 days(~4000km) and $200,000
From Shanghai to Rotterdam
Russia currently ahead
5 Arctic ice breakers & 3 nuclear powered ones
Canada now building 1 ice breaker a fleet of 8 patrol boats
| Route | Distance |
| Panama Canal | 25,588 kilometres |
| Suez Canal | 19,550 km |
| Northern Sea Route | 15,793 km |
| Northwest Passage | 16,100 km |
| Transpolar Route | 13,630 km |
Ship growth in NWP
2007
9 ships
………….
2012
30 ships
The bad
Shorter lengths of ice free months
Extremely harsh conditions
Risk of accident during oil and gas exploration and production
Accidental release during shipping
The Bad
Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/energy-and-mineral-riches-of-the-arctic/
The ugly
11
| Vessel/Spill | Accident Type | Spill | Year |
| ATLANTIC EMPRESS and AEGEAN CAPTAIN | Collision | 287,000 tonnes of oil | 1979 |
| ABT SUMMER | Explosion | Slick covering 80 sq.km | 1991 |
| CASTILLO DE BELLVER | Fire | 50-60,000 tonnes of oil | 1983 |
| AMOCO CADIZ | Grounding | 223,000 tonnes of oil | 1978 |
| EXXON VALDEZ | Grounding | 37,000 tonnes of oil | 1989 |
| BP Oil Spill | Blowout | 680,000 tonnes of oil | 2010 |
Courtesy: US Coast Guard
Over $50bn spent on BP oil Spill
(after Afenyo et al., 2016)
Oil spill history
Ugly
12
Accidental releases of oil have negative consequences on the marine environment.
Need to prepare for emergency control and mitigation of oil spills.
Countermeasures can only be implemented effectively if the fate and transport is better understood.
Environmental risk assessment: requires fate and transport models.
Meanwhile the Arctic is an uncertain terrain with many unknowns
Harsh: very low temperatures
Timely response is a challenge
Darkness
Seasonal variations
The problem of dealing with the ugly
13
Evaporation
Resurfacing of larger oil droplet
Dissolution of water soluble components of oil
Photo-oxidation
Wind
Drifting
Spreading
AIR
Sedimentation
Natural dispersion
SEDIMENTS
WATER
ICE
AIR
WATER
SEDIMENTS
Drift with current
Fixed oil droplet, mobile or being encapsulated in growing ice
Absorption by snow
Oil Pool under snow
Multi-year ice
Lead
Encapsulated oil
Evaporation
Dissolution and mousse formation
Oil on meltwater in pools in spring
Oil migration up brine channel
First-year ice
Oil pool
Complex
Ice makes it more complicated
(after Afenyo et al.,2015)
Oil ice interaction
Oil spill processes in open water
Modeling oil spill in ice is difficult
Lack of data in the Arctic
comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework needed
Limited knowledge
14
Environment Risk
Ecology (marine) Risk
Socio-economic Risk
Information on such risks are required to make decisions
Soures: Environment Picture: https://psmag.com/environment/monitoring-coral-habitat-to-measure-oil-spill-impact
Ecology Picture: https://helpsavenature.com/current-environmental-issues
Socio-economic activities: https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-economic-and-non-economic-activities.html
Elements of ecological risk
15
Source
Fate and transport
Dispersion
Exposure
Risk
Source modeling
Oil could be spilled due to
Ship accidents
Offshore oil installations
Illegal oil discharge
Pipeline rapture
Leak from sunken world war ships
Source modelling for oil spills is challenging as each spill scenario is unique.
The release scenarios may evolve with time and conditions
16
Oil spill due to ship damage*
*Source: http://www.bunkerist.com/en/?p=40692
Dispersion modeling
Dispersion modeling access how much distance a crude could travel in a given time.
While modeling dispersion, we need to consider all possible dimensions to this process in terms of oil
17
Source: Afenyo, M., Khan, F., Veitch, B., & Yang, M. (2017). A probabilistic ecological risk model for Arctic marine oil spills. Journal of environmental chemical engineering, 5(2), 1494-1503.
Dispersion of oil after a leakage from a vessel
Partition modeling
The released oil is transported through
Air
Ice
Water
Sediment
18
*Source: Afenyo, M., Khan, F., Veitch, B., & Yang, M. (2016). Dynamic fugacity model for accidental oil release during Arctic shipping. Marine pollution bulletin, 111(1-2), 347-353.
Oil transport in air, ice, water and sediments*
Exposure Modeling
Exposure modeling involves assessment of the oil concentration and its existence in media of contact.
In marine species, pollutant existence could be due to;
Inhalation
Ingestion of contaminated water and food
Absorption of hydrocarbon
19
Output of ecological model
Risk Quotient is defined as
RQ = PEC/PNEC
Where, Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC) is measured through fugacity modelling.
And the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC) is obtained from ecotoxicological studies. PNEC represents ecosystem response.
A value of RQ > 1 shows condition requiring attention
20
*Source: Afenyo, M., Khan, F., Veitch, B., & Yang, M. (2017). A probabilistic ecological risk model for Arctic marine oil spills. Journal of environmental chemical engineering, 5(2), 1494-1503.
Concentration of pollutant (oil) in water*
How will ships be insured going into the Arctic?
Material ship is made of
Experience of crew
Single hull or double hull
Piracy
Length of Voyage
Speed of vessel
Age vessel
Days expected at sea
Graphical based socio-economic model
Socio-economic Impact factors
Family separation
Lack of thrust
Stress
Loss of income
Loss of tourists
Movement of people in and out of the affected community
Effect on culture
Effect on hunting
Psychological effect on populace
Weakened social connection
Land Claim Agreement
NORDREG
Scenarios matrix & output for socio-economic model
| Scenario | Season | Type of oil | Recovery method | Type of ship |
| 1 | Summer | Light | None | small |
| 2 | Summer | Light | None | Large |
| 3 | Summer | Heavy | None | small |
| 4 | Summer | Heavy | None | Large |
| 5 | Summer | Heavy | Dispersant | Small |
| 6 | Summer | Heavy | Dispersant | Large |
| 7 | Summer | Heavy | Insitu-burning | small |
| 8 | Summer | Heavy | Insitu-burning | Large |
Socio-economic impact of scenarios
1 3 13 15 17 19 21 23 88187431 104326960 101022550 108101430 104119470 108126610 105353850 108125960
Sceanarios
Impact ($)
Significance of the output of the SE model
For decision making by governments
Use by insurance companies
Other environmental agencies
What is the Arctic policy of Canada?
"The simple fact is that Arctic strategies throughout my lifetime have rarely matched or addressed the magnitude of the basic gaps between what exists in the Arctic and what other Canadians take for granted. Closing these gaps is what northerners, across the Arctic, wanted to speak to me about as an urgent priority."
-Mary Simon, Interim report on the Shared Arctic Leadership Model
New Arctic Policy Framework
coordinated effort by all levels of government,
Indigenous groups,
industry and other stakeholders
to identify problems and solutions and make great use of the opportunities in the Arctic.
Comprehensive Arctic infrastructure
Lack of infrastructure in the Canadian Arctic
Internet access is based on satellite and is very expensive
Inaccessible year round
Climate change caused damage to infrastructure in the Arctic
What needs to be done for this region?
Strong Arctic people and communities
Unemployment is higher than Canadian average and can go as high as 50% in some places
High rate of crowd living
High rate of violence
Assess to health care is a challenge
No university physically in the arctic (not the case for other arctic countries)
What key actions could increase well-being within arctic communities?
Strong, sustainable and diversified Arctic economies
Canadian Arctic is mineral rich
What can be done to advance
sustainable economic development,
diversify the Arctic economy,
build capacity/expertise and increase the participation of Arctic residents in local economies,
grow small-to-medium Arctic businesses and enhance partnerships?
Arctic science and Indigenous knowledge
The new Canadian High Arctic Research Station campus in Cambridge Bay (Nunavut),
the Churchill Marine Observatory (Manitoba)
Institut nordique du Québec,
Genice (https://www.genice.ca/)
How can Canada respond more effectively to
local knowledge needs,
collaborate with territorial and provincial institutions and better integrate Indigenous knowledge into decision-making?
increase the capacity of Arctic residents to participate in Arctic research initiatives,
Protecting the environment and conserving Arctic biodiversity
Oil spills
Protecting the flora and fauna
Coast guard responsible for any emergency response
How can Indigenous and local experience/knowledge be incorporated into action on climate change and biodiversity?
The Arctic in a global context
Engage the world through the arctic council
Make the indigenous nations part of this engagement
What domestic interests and priorities should the government of Canada pursue internationally?
What do you see as the main challenges and opportunities for Canada's arctic foreign and defense policy in the next 10-20 years?
Progress
Source: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/food-security-top-mind-inuit-100000741.html
Make your input
There are three ways to participate:
Send a letter to: Arctic Policy Framework Secretariat 15 rue Eddy, 14th floor Gatineau QC K1A 0H4
Send an email to: ArctiqueEnsemble-ArcticTogether@canada.ca.
Send a tweet using the hashtag #ArcticTogether.
References
Afenyo,M., Khan,F., Veitch,B., Ng,A.K.Y., Sajid,Z., Fahd,F. 2019. An explorative object-oriented Bayesian network model for oil spill response in the Arctic Ocean. Safety in Extreme Environments.
Afenyo, M., Ng, A.K.Y., and Jiang, C., 2018. Climate change and Arctic shipping: A method for assessing the impacts of oil spills in the Arctic. Transportation Research Part D,476-490 (Article in press).
Afenyo, M., Khan, F. and Ng, A.K.Y. (2020): ‘Assessing the risk of potential oil spills in the Arctic due to shipping’. In: Ng, A.K.Y., Monios, J. and Jiang, C. (Eds.): Maritime Transport and Regional Sustainability. Elsevier, Cambridge, MA, Chapter 11 (in press).
Afenyo, M., Lin, Y. and Ng, A.K.Y., Jiang, C. (2020): ‘The opportunities and challenges of developing the Arctic area and shipping in the Arctic’. In: Lasserre, F., and Faury, O. (Eds.): Arctic shipping: Climate change, commercial traffic and port development. Elsevier, Cambridge, MA, Chapter 12.
Lin, Y., Afenyo, M. and Ng, A.K.Y. (forthcoming): ‘Climate change, a double-edged sword: The case of Churchill on the northwest passage’. In: Ng, A.K.Y., Monios, J. and Jiang, C. (Eds.): Maritime Transport and Regional Sustainability. Elsevier, Cambridge, MA, Chapter 13 (in press).
Afenyo, M., Khan, F., Veitch, B., & Yang, M. (2017). A probabilistic ecological risk model for Arctic marine oil spills. Journal of environmental chemical engineering, 5(2), 1494-1503.
Afenyo, M., Khan, F., Veitch, B., & Yang, M. (2016). Dynamic fugacity model for accidental oil release during Arctic shipping. Marine pollution bulletin, 111(1-2), 347-353
Afenyo, M., Khan, F., & Veitch, B., 2016. A state-of-the-art review of fate and transport of oil spills in open and ice-covered water. Ocean Engineering. 119:233-248.
https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1503687877293/1537887905065
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