Business Problem Solving
Wicked problems: Unpicking wicked problems
Dr. Stephen Hills
Learning objectives
To be able to recognise wicked problems.
To be able to select and apply bulletproof problem solving tools to tackle wicked problems.
Wicked problems
Wicked problems
Problems that are difficult to define and find a solution for because they are impossibly linked to complex systems, which involve:
Multiple causes.
Major values disagreements between stakeholders.
Unintended consequences.
Require substantial behaviour change.
Wicked problems
Where the problem changes shape as a result of an intervention: For example, welfare payments, which can lead to dependency and undermine positive behaviours. A theory of change should be mapped out, including feedback loops so to get incentives right.
Where there is no such thing as a single right answer to the problem: For example, the use of nuclear power in a country’s energy mix. Explore trade-offs between reasonably right answers or least-bad outcomes.
Where values play an important role: For example, gun control in the US is an issue where values play an important role. Problem solving should seek to identify common ground by looking at sources of accidental and homicide deaths from gun ownership which can be addressed with interventions such as mental health and criminal record background checks.
Where the real problem is nested inside other, more apparent problems: For example, shelter is a more apparent problem of homelessness, but efforts should be directed at the underlying social, financial, mental health and domestic violence problems.
Wicked problem: Obesity
Wicked problem: Obesity
Obesity is a global phenomenon with huge economic, social and personal costs, estimated to have a similar social burden of $2 trillion to smoking, armed violence and terrorism.
Obesity is a complex, systemic issue with no single or simple solution.
There is discord on how to move forward, requiring integrated assessments of potential solutions.
Obesity has dozens of contributing causes, including genetic, environmental, behavioural, cultural, societal, income and education dimensions.
Problem definition
Overweight and obese people comprise 30% of the UK adult population, which continues to rise.
The economic burden is $73 billion per year, as of 2012 (smoking is $90 billion).
The direct medical costs are $6 billion per year.
Body mass index (BMI) is positively correlated with healthcare costs.
The UK Government is the decision-maker.
Goal of 20% overweight/obese individuals to reach a normal weight category within 5 years.
Few constraints, with regulatory interventions (e..g., taxes on high-sugar drinks) on the table.
Interventions should be:
Cost effective.
Impactful.
An evidence-base.
Disaggregating the problem
Obesity problem was disaggregated using a supply and demand cleaving frame.
Use of a cost curve provided a menu of opportunities in descending order of cost and size of impact.
Analysis
74 interventions were categorised into 18 groups, including:
High-calorie food and drink availability.
Weight management programmes.
Portion control.
Public health education.
Cost and impact in terms of $ per disability-affected life years were estimated for each intervention,
44 interventions deemed highly cost-effective, impactful and evidence-based were selected.
Estimated that it would cost the UK $40 billion to implement all of the interventions
Cost curve: Setting priorities
Implement the low-cost, high-impact initiatives first, particularly the small wins, before tackling the more divisive and costly initiatives – the widest bars to the left.
Ordering of initiatives will change as more information on cost and impact comes to bear.
Decision makers were urged to act now on the portfolio of interventions, rather than wait for an unlikely silver bullet solution.
Wicked problem: Overfishing
Problem definition
The US West Coast Groundfish fishery off the coast of California had been in decline for some time.
1987 – catch valued at $110 million.
2003 – catch values at $35 million.
Trawling was having a substantial negative effect on habitat and species diversity.
Conventional solutions
The solutions to reduce the negative effects of bottom trawling were difficult to implement.
Conventional top-down regulatory had poor success.
Reasoning by analogy
A potential solution path emerged from land-conservation easements and market transactions in the marine environment.
The Nature Conservatory bought over 50% of the trawl permits from fishermen for $7 million on the condition that they support the establishment of a marine protected zone prohibiting trawling.
The Nature Conservatory then leased the permits back to fishermen with conservation restrictions.
Rather than highly competitive fishing between individuals, a cooperative fishing approach was adopted.
Fishermen shared catches.
Case: Morro Bay Regional Port
A community quota fund was established in Morro Bay regional port.
Morro Bay transitioned from a larger fleet reliant on trawl and large volume to a smaller fleet catching a diversity of species using less damaging methods.
Catch volume was spread out over time, resulting in fishers being able to access higher market values
Conclusions
Conclusions
Some problems are particularly difficult because they are impossibly linked to complex systems, which involve multiple causes, major values disagreements between stakeholders, unintended consequences and require substantial behaviour change.
These problems are harder to solve, but the bulletproof problem solving methodology and its tools can be applied to unlock insights and provide solutions.
Workshop: WeWork team problem solving
Workshop: Team problem solving
Your team has been brought in by WeWork.
Move on to the remaining steps of the bulletproof problem solving process:
Prioritise solution drivers.
Conduct simple analysis on relevant secondary data.
Using a pyramid structure, communicate your synthesised findings.
Prepare to present your story using a pyramid structure in the next class.