Math 107
Recall that the goal of the Kyoto Protocol was to cut developed countries’ carbon dioxide emission to about 5% to 7% below 1990 levels by 2012. This was a crucial first goal, but the IPCC is calling for carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 to be 60% less than the carbon dioxide emission in 1990.
Many countries were previously condemning the United States because the Bush administration and Congress refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Although the U.S. population in 2010 was only 5% of the world population, 18% of world carbon dioxide emissions that year was produced by the United States (see Table 3). The Obama administration has taken a very different path, assumed responsibility, and took numerous actions that led to a significant decrease of the CO2 emission in the US. This course again changed dramatically by the Trump administration.
Critics of the Kyoto Protocol say that a fairer pact would be for all countries to commit to the same level of carbon dioxide emission per person. Recommendations are by 0.9 metric ton per person in 2050. Average annual carbon dioxide emission in 2010 for developing countries was 2.7 metric ton per person, which is 3 times the IPCC’s recommendation. However, the average annual carbon dioxide emission for developed countries was 10.2 metric tons per person, for US 18 (!) metric tons per person, far above IPCC’s recommendation (see Table 4). GNP, the gross national product, is a measure of a country’s economic strength.
With annual carbon dioxide emissions of 18.1 metric tons per person in 2010, the United States would have to reduce emissions by 95% to meet the standard of 0.9 metric ton per person. This means that Americans would be allowed to emit only 5% of the carbon dioxide that they are currently emitting. Imagine driving your car, heating and cooling your home, using your appliances, using your computer, using your lights, and watching TV only 5% (one-twentieth) of the time that you currently do.
Table 3 Table 4
United States and World Population GNP Ranks and Per-Person Carbon Dioxide Emissions
In the strongest action ever taken in the United States to combat climate change, in August 2015 President Obama unveiled a set of environmental actions devised to sharply cut planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from the nation’s power plants and ultimately transform America’s electricity industry. These new rules alone will not be enough to shave off that future described above. But experts say that if the rules are combined with similar action from the world’s other major economies, as well as additional action by the future administrations, emissions could level off enough to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
The main argument against stronger actions was that the economy would suffer. Many arguments however show that it is possible for emissions to be significantly reduced without harming a country’s economy. Switzerland, Denmark, Japan, and Norway, for instance, have similar GNP per-person ranking than the United States has, as well as significantly lower per-person carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, with the exception of the Netherlands and Australia, all of the countries listed in Table 4 have strong economies and significant lower carbon dioxide emissions than the United States has. A scattergram of the Data would show that countries with higher per-person GDP do not necessarily have higher carbon dioxide emissions.
By using alternative sources of energy, many countries have slowed or reversed the growth of carbon dioxide emissions in recent years. In addition to national, states and even corporate actions, individuals can help lower carbon dioxide emissions by purchasing hybrid automobiles, major appliances with Energy Star logo, solar thermal systems to help provide hot water, solar panels to produce energy, use LED light bulbs, carpool or use public transportation among others.
The sudden stop and/or reverse of the carbon reducing actions imposed by the Trump administration will have a significant adverse effect on the efforts by the rest of all other world countries to lower the CO2 emission worldwide.
Developing countries’ carbon dioxide emissions are about 2.7 metric tons per person per year. Due to their already low per-person emissions, it seems that these countries will have an easier time meeting the IPCC’s goal. However, by 2050 many such countries will have become developed countries, and their economies will have become much stronger. As a result of this growth, their carbon dioxide emissions will greatly increase without intervention.
For example, China’s carbon dioxide emissions were only 1.15 metric tons per person in 1990. Due to China’s booming economy, however, without intervention the country’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 may reach 41.5 metric tons per person per year – 36 times the 1990 per-person level. This large increase in per-person carbon dioxide emission will be amplified by a population increase of 480 million people in those 60 years (from 0.98 billion to 1.46 billion). In recent years though the Chinese government has invested heavily in renewable energies and put in drastic regulations to improve air quality and reduce CO2 emissions at the same time.
Table 5
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
An analysis of the data in Table 5 shows that developing countries’ carbon dioxide emissions are growing at a greater rate than developing countries carbon dioxide emissions. This is occurring not only because developing countries are becoming more industrialized, but also because their population are increasing significantly. Developed countries’ economies and populations are growing at a much slower rate; in fact, most developed countries’ population will begin to decline slowly after 2020.
Many challenges lie ahead for developed and developing countries, both of which will need to develop efficient systems that rely on alternative energy sources whenever possible. Citizens of developed countries will have the extra challenges of foregoing certain conveniences that up until now have been taken for granted. Developing countries will have the extra challenge of harnessing large population growths.