Linear Regression Exponential Smoothing / Linear regression
Slope =
Forecast for CPI in 2011= /
Intercept = MAPE= /
Year Period CPI Exp. Smoothing Forecast Linear Regression Forecast
2001 1 102.8
2002 2 104.5 103.48
2003 3 106.8 105.42
2004 4 109.7 107.96
2005 5 113.4 111.18
2006 6 117.1 114.88
2007 7 120.4 118.42
2008 8 125.0 122.24
2009 9 124.6 124.84
2010 10 126.6 125.4
2011 11 75.5
1) Use Exponential smotthing with alpha =0.4 to generate a forecast forCPI in the year 2011. Begin with a naive initialization.
2) Use the regression tool in Excel or the "bulit in" Excel functions to determine the trend line and generate a forecast for CPI in the year 2011.
3) For each of the two forecasting method you used, generate backcasts and compute MAPE.
10 years ago
Purchase the answer to view it
- qr11r.xlsx