Tree

Complete problems 6 and 8 on page 365–366 of your textbook.

Be sure to include your work with the answers. Provide a summary and rationale useful in interpreting the decision tree results

6. The design and effective capacities for a local emergency facility are 300 and 260 patients per day, respectively. Currently, the emergency room processes 250 patients per day. What can you conclude from these figures?

8. The owners of Sweet-Tooth Bakery have determined that they need to expand their facility in order to meet their increased demand for baked goods. The decision is whether to expand now with a large facility or expand small with the possibility of having to expand again in five years.

The owners have estimated the following chances for demand:

• The likelihood of demand being high is 0.70.

• The likelihood of demand being low is 0.30.

Profits for each alternative have been estimated as follows:

• Large expansion has an estimated profitability of either $80,000 or $50,000, depending on whether demand turns out to be high or low.

• Small expansion has a profitability of $40,000, assuming demand is low.

• Small expansion with an occurrence of high demand would require considering whether to expand further. If the bakery expands at this point, the profitability is to be $50,000.

 (a) Draw a decision tree showing the decisions, chance events, and their probabilities, as well as the profitability of outcomes.

 (b) Solve the decision tree and decide what the bakery should do.