MGT-455 Chapter 4 Problem Set

4.1 The following gives the number of pints of type B 
blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: 
 
 WEEK OF
 31-Aug
 7-Sep
 14-Sep
 21-Sep
 28-Sep
 5-Oct
 
a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. 
b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12.  
c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and a α = .2.   

4.3 Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a 5 .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better?

4.5 The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:  
  
 YEAR MILEAGE
 1 3,000
 2 4,000
 3 3,400
 4 3,800
 5 3,700
a) Forecast the mileage for next year (6th year) using a 2-year moving average.  
b) Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average. (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)

4.25 The following gives the number of accidents that occurred on Florida State Highway 101 during the past 4 months:  
  
 MONTH  NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS
 January 
 February 
 March 
 April
Forecast the number of accidents that will occur in May, using least-squares regression to derive a trend equation

4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George’s sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as follows:    
                                  YEAR  
 SEASON 1 2 3
 Winter 1,400 1,200 1,000
 Spring 1,500 1,400 1,600
 Summer 1,000 2,100 2,000
 Fall 600 750 650
    
George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 5,600 sailboats. Based on this data and the multiplicative seasonal model, what will the demand level be for George’s sailboats in the spring of year 5?