MAT 540 Midterm Exam 100 out of 100

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. 
 

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. 
 

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Answer

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. 
 

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Answer

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

Answer

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
 

 
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

Answer

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Answer

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

Answer

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Answer

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

Answer

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Answer

 rob
 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:  
 

 
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
 
What is the expected yield of the crop?

Answer

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

Consider the following graph of sales. 
 
 
 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

Answer

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Answer

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Answer

Consider the following demand and forecast.
 

 
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Answer

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints. 
 

 
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

Answer

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Answer

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. 
            
Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.
 
            
 
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

Answer

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  
 
                        
 
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

Answer

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  
 
                        
 
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary. 

Answer

A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.  What is the simulated value?

Answer

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
 
                        Year    Demand           Forecast

Answer

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
 
            
 
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

Answer

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product 
 

 
 
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Answer

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
 

 
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Answer

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. 
 
            
 
What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point. 

Answer

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 

 
 
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Answer

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 
            
 
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
 
            
 
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Answer