Finance
Thefollowingpagescontainannualdataoninterestrates,inflationrates, andpercentagechange in exchangerates(basedonindirectquotes)forforeigncountries,includingtheUS,forthe period1995-2007.
My Country is Switzerland, years I need to do is 2001-2006.
I am little lost what to do…
Eachoneof youisassignedtoaforeigncountryandasix-yeartimeperiod(1995-2000 or2001-2006).Pleaseconsulttheattachedlisttodetermineyourassignedcountryand
timeperiod.
Pleaseusetheattachedsheetsto answerthequestionslistedbasedoncalculationsusingthedata fortheassignedcountryandtheUSduringtheassignedtimeperiod.
Usegeometricinsteadof arithmeticaverages. Useexactinsteadof theapproximatemethod.
Thereisonlyonecorrectanswertothesequestions.Youwillbe gradedonwhetherornot youranswersarecorrect.
ThenecessaryinformationandconceptsareallfromChapter4. Iwilldiscussthesolution techniquestotheseproblemsonlyduringclass.Iwillnotdiscussthemwithanyoneonan individualbasisoutsidetheclass.
Q1.Duringtheassignedtimeperiod:
USdollarappreciated/depreciated(chooseone)inreal termsagainstthecurrencyofforeign country.
Q2.Duringtheassignedperiod,whatwastheaverageuncoveredrateofreturnfromtheUS
viewpointfortheforeigncountry?
Q3.Duringtheassignedperiod,whatwastheaverageuncoveredrateofreturnfromtheforeign country'sviewpoint?
Q4.Basedonyouranswerstoquestions2 and3, givenperfecthindsightaboutinterestratesand exchangeratechangesduringtheassignedtimeperiodyoushouldhave:
Invested/borrowed(chooseone)intheUSandinvested/borrowed(chooseone)inforeign country.
Q5.Assumethatyoucouldbothborrowandinvestat theaverageinterestratesprevailingin foreigncountryandintheUSduringtheassignedtimeperiod.Alsoassumethatyouhave aline ofcreditforonemilliondollarsintheUSoran equivalentamountinforeigncountry.Given perfecthindsightaboutinterestratesandexchangeratechanges,please calculateyourtotal profit in dollarsusinguncoveredinterestarbitrageduringtheassignedtimeperiodifyou followedthestrategychoseninQ4.
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Work Sheet: Statistical Report
GeometricandArithmeticMeansofRatesandPercentages
Iftheratesforyears1,2,3,...NareR1,R2,R3,....RN,thenyoucancalculatethearithmeticandgeometricmeanoraverages oftheseratesovertheNyears,asfollows:
ArithmeticMean = (R1+R2 +R3+..+RN)/N
GeometricMean = [(1+R1)*(1+R2)*(1+R3)***(1+RN)]
1/N-1
Note,thatinthegeometricmeanformula,thepercentagesarewrittenindecimals.Forexample,weuse0.10insteadof10% and-0.02insteadof-2%.AlsointheendwetaketheNthrootoftheproduct,whereNisthenumberofyearsintheaveraging period.
Itisimportanttoknowthatthegeometricmeanisamoreaccuratemeasurethanthearithmeticmean.Alwaystryto usethegeometricmeanmethodwhencalculatingaveragesofrateofreturnsorpercentages.
Letusassumethefollowingratesofreturnforthefiveyearperiod(2000-2004):
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2005 |
Ratesofreturn | 4.75% | -8% | 0.5% | 23% | 7% |
Ourestimateoftheaveragerateofreturnoverthe2000-04periodbasedon: ArithmeticMean =(0.0475-0.08+0.005+0.23+0.07)/5=0.0545=5.45%
GeometricMean =[(1+0.0475)*(1-0.08)*(1+0.005)*(1+0.23)*(1+0.07)]1/5-1
=(1.02746672)1/5-1
=0.04973=4.973%
4.973%isamoreaccuratemeasureoftheaveragereturnoverthe2000-04periodthan5.45%
ConsumerPriceIndex
Percentchangefromyearago
| 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
Australia |
4.6 |
2.6 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
2.3 |
Austria | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Canada | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Chile | 8.2 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
China | 17.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4.8 |
Denmark | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
EuroArea | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
Finland | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
France | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Germany |
. | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
Greece |
. | 7.9 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
Indonesia | 9.4 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 58.4 | 20.5 | 3.7 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 |
Ireland |
. | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
Israel | 10.0 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
Italy | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Japan | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Korea | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
Malaysia | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Mexico | 35.0 | 34.4 | 20.6 | 15.9 | 16.6 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
Netherlands | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
NewZealand | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
Norway | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
Philippines | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 6.7 | -0.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 |
Singapore | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
SouthAfrica | 8.7 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 7.1 |
Spain | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
Sweden | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
Switzerland | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
Thailand | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
Turkey | 89.1 | 80.4 | 85.7 | 84.6 | 64.9 | 54.9 | 54.4 | 45.0 | 21.6 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 |
UnitedKingdom | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
UnitedStates | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
Venezuela | 60.0 | 99.8 | 50.0 | 35.8 | 23.6 | 16.2 | 12.5 | 22.4 | 31.1 | 21.7 | 16.0 | 13.6 | 18.7 |
ResearchDivision
FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis 7
Exchange Rates
Percentappreciation(+)ordepreciation(-)oftheU.S.dollaragainstthelocalcurrency
| 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
Australia | -1.3 | -5.3 | 5.3 | 18.1 | -2.4 | 11.0 | 12.5 | -4.9 | -16.7 | -11.5 | -3.4 | 1.2 | -10.1 |
Canada | 0.5 | -0.7 | 1.6 | 7.1 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | -10.8 | -7.1 | -6.9 | -6.4 | -5.3 |
Chile | -5.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 17.7 | 8.5 | 0.4 | -11.8 | -8.2 | -5.3 | -1.5 |
China | -3.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -1.0 | -2.7 | -4.6 |
Denmark | -11.8 | 3.5 | 13.9 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 15.9 | 2.9 | -5.3 | -16.6 | -9.0 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -8.4 |
EuroArea | -8.7 | 2.3 | 13.9 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 15.5 | 3.1 | -5.3 | -16.5 | -9.0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -8.4 |
Indonesia | 4.1 | 4.2 | 24.2 | 244.2 | -21.6 | 7.2 | 21.8 | -9.3 | -7.9 | 4.2 | 8.6 | -5.6 | -0.2 |
Israel | 0.0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 8.9 | -1.5 | 3.1 | 12.7 | -3.9 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -7.8 |
Japan | -7.9 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 8.0 | -13.1 | -5.2 | 12.7 | 3.1 | -7.5 | -6.7 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 |
Korea | -4.2 | 4.2 | 18.5 | 47.2 | -15.3 | -4.9 | 14.2 | -3.2 | -4.7 | -3.9 | -10.6 | -6.8 | -2.6 |
Malaysia | -4.4 | 0.3 | 12.0 | 39.3 | -3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -3.2 | -6.3 |
Mexico | 90.2 | 18.4 | 4.2 | 15.4 | 4.6 | -1.1 | -1.2 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 4.6 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
NewZealand | -9.5 | -4.6 | 3.8 | 23.4 | 1.4 | 15.9 | 8.7 | -9.5 | -20.2 | -12.4 | -5.7 | 8.4 | -11.7 |
Norway | -10.2 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 12.9 | 2.1 | -11.2 | -11.4 | -4.8 | -4.4 | -0.5 | -8.7 |
Philippines | -2.7 | 2.0 | 12.4 | 38.8 | -4.4 | 13.1 | 15.4 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 3.4 | -1.7 | -6.8 | -10.1 |
Singapore | -7.2 | -0.5 | 5.4 | 12.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | -0.1 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -1.5 | -4.6 | -5.2 |
SouthAfrica | 2.1 | 18.5 | 7.2 | 20.0 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 24.2 | 21.9 | -28.2 | -14.7 | -1.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 |
Sweden | -7.5 | -6.0 | 13.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 11.0 | 12.7 | -6.0 | -16.9 | -9.1 | 1.7 | -1.3 | -8.4 |
Switzerland | -13.5 | 4.6 | 17.3 | -0.1 | 3.7 | 12.5 | -0.1 | -7.8 | -13.6 | -7.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -4.3 |
Thailand | -0.9 | 1.7 | 22.5 | 33.0 | -8.3 | 6.2 | 10.7 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.1 | -0.1 | -5.9 | -15.0 |
Turkey | 54.8 | 77.6 | 86.6 | 71.7 | 60.6 | 49.3 | 96.0 | 23.0 | -0.4 | -5.0 | -5.7 | 6.3 | -8.8 |
UnitedKingdom | -2.9 | 1.1 | -4.7 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 6.7 | 5.3 | -4.2 | -8.1 | -10.8 | 0.7 | -1.3 | -7.9 |
UnitedStates1 | -5.6 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 4.8 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 6.0 | -1.5 | -12.3 | -8.2 | -1.9 | -1.5 | -5.6 |
Venezuela | 19.0 | 136.1 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 60.4 | 38.4 | 17.7 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
1 Percentappreciation(+)ordepreciation(-)oftheU.S.dollaragainstagroupofcurrencies
ResearchDivision
FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis 11
Short-TermInterestRates
Annualpercent
| 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
Australia | 7.7 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.7 |
Canada | 5.9 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
Chile | 13.7 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 14.9 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 5.6 |
China | 10.4 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Denmark | 6.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
EuroArea | 6.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
Indonesia | 16.7 | 17.3 | 20.0 | 39.1 | 25.7 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 |
Israel | 14.4 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
. |
Japan* | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
Korea | 12.6 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
Malaysia | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
Mexico | 48.2 | 32.9 | 22.3 | 27.1 | 24.6 | 17.2 | 13.4 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 7.8 |
NewZealand | 9.0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 8.3 |
Norway | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 5.0 |
Philippines | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 |
Singapore | 2.6 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
SouthAfrica | 13.5 | 15.0 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 9.1 |
Sweden | 8.7 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.6 |
Switzerland | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
Thailand | 10.3 | 12.1 | 21.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 |
Turkey | 72.3 | 76.2 | 70.3 | 74.6 | 73.5 | 38.9 | 92.4 | 59.5 | 38.5 | 23.8 | 15.6 | 17.9 | 18.2 |
UnitedKingdom | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 6.0 |
UnitedStates | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
Venezuela | 49.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 60.0 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 37.0 | 40.0 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 |
*Theactualvaluefor2003is0.037;theactualvaluefor2004is0.029;theactualvaluefor2005is0.029.
ResearchDivision
10 FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
11 years ago 20
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